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1. Locally and Remotely Forced Subtropical AMOC Variability: A Matter of Time Scales

   https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0844.1  

   Jamet, Quentin ; Dewar, William K. ; Wienders, Nicolas ; Deremble, Bruno ; Close, Sally ; Penduff, Thierry ( June 2020 , Journal of Climate)

   Mechanisms driving the North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) variability at low frequency are of central interest for accurate climate predictions. Although the subpolar gyre region has been identified as a preferred place for generating climate time-scale signals, their southward propagation remains under consideration, complicating the interpretation of the observed time series provided by the Rapid Climate Change–Meridional Overturning Circulation and Heatflux Array–Western Boundary Time Series (RAPID–MOCHA–WBTS) program. In this study, we aim at disentangling the respective contribution of the local atmospheric forcing from signals of remote origin for the subtropical low-frequency AMOC variability. We analyze for this a set of four ensembles of a regional (20°S–55°N), eddy-resolving (1/12°) North Atlantic oceanic configuration, where surface forcing and open boundary conditions are alternatively permuted from fully varying (realistic) to yearly repeating signals. Their analysis reveals the predominance of local, atmospherically forced signal at interannual time scales (2–10 years), whereas signals imposed by the boundaries are responsible for the decadal (10–30 years) part of the spectrum. Due to this marked time-scale separation, we show that, although the intergyre region exhibits peculiarities, most of the subtropical AMOC variability can be understood as a linear superposition of these two signals. Finally, we find thatmore »the decadal-scale, boundary-forced AMOC variability has both northern and southern origins, although the former dominates over the latter, including at the site of the RAPID array (26.5°N).

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2. 100 Years of Progress in Understanding the Dynamics of Coupled Atmosphere–Ocean Variability

   https://doi.org/10.1175/AMSMONOGRAPHS-D-18-0025.1  

   Battisti, David S. ; Vimont, Daniel J. ; Kirtman, Benjamin P. ( October 2019 , Meteorological Monographs)

   In situ observation networks and reanalyses products of the state of the atmosphere and upper ocean show well-defined, large-scale patterns of coupled climate variability on time scales ranging from seasons to several decades. We summarize these phenomena and their physics, which have been revealed by analysis of observations, by experimentation with uncoupled and coupled atmosphere and ocean models with a hierarchy of complexity, and by theoretical developments. We start with a discussion of the seasonal cycle in the equatorial tropical Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, which are clearly affected by coupling between the atmosphere and the ocean. We then discuss the tropical phenomena that only exist because of the coupling between the atmosphere and the ocean: the Pacific and Atlantic meridional modes, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the Pacific, and a phenomenon analogous to ENSO in the Atlantic. For ENSO, we further discuss the sources of irregularity and asymmetry between warm and cold phases of ENSO, and the response of ENSO to forcing. Fundamental to variability on all time scales in the midlatitudes of the Northern Hemisphere are preferred patterns of uncoupled atmospheric variability that exist independent of any changes in the state of the ocean, land, or distributionmore »of sea ice. These patterns include the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO), and the Pacific–North American (PNA) pattern; they are most active in wintertime, with a temporal spectrum that is nearly white. Stochastic variability in the NPO, PNA, and NAO force the ocean on days to interannual times scales by way of turbulent heat exchange and Ekman transport, and on decadal and longer time scales by way of wind stress forcing. The PNA is partially responsible for the Pacific decadal oscillation; the NAO is responsible for an analogous phenomenon in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre. In models, stochastic forcing by the NAO also gives rise to variability in the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) that is partially responsible for multidecadal anomalies in the North Atlantic climate known as the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO); observations do not yet exist to adequately determine the physics of the AMO. We review the progress that has been made in the past 50 years in understanding each of these phenomena and the implications for short-term (seasonal-to-interannual) climate forecasts. We end with a brief discussion of advances of things that are on the horizon, under the rug, and over the rainbow.

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3. Teleconnection between the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and Sea Level in the Mediterranean Sea

   https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0474.1  

   Volkov, Denis L. ; Baringer, Molly ; Smeed, David ; Johns, William ; Landerer, Felix W. ( February 2019 , Journal of Climate)

   The Mediterranean Sea can be viewed as a “barometer” of the North Atlantic Ocean, because its sea level responds to oceanic-gyre-scale changes in atmospheric pressure and wind forcing, related to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The climate of the North Atlantic is influenced by the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) as it transports heat from the South Atlantic toward the subpolar North Atlantic. This study reports on a teleconnection between the AMOC transport measured at 26.5°N and the Mediterranean Sea level during 2004–17: a reduced/increased AMOC transport is associated with a higher/lower sea level in the Mediterranean. Processes responsible for this teleconnection are analyzed in detail using available satellite and in situ observations and an atmospheric reanalysis. First, it is shown that on monthly to interannual time scales the AMOC and sea level are both driven by similar NAO-like atmospheric circulation patterns. During a positive/negative NAO state, stronger/weaker trade winds (i) drive northward/southward anomalies of Ekman transport across 26.5°N that directly affect the AMOC and (ii) are associated with westward/eastward winds over the Strait of Gibraltar that force water to flow out of/into the Mediterranean Sea and thus change its average sea level. Second, it is demonstrated that interannual changesmore »in the AMOC transport can lead to thermosteric sea level anomalies near the North Atlantic eastern boundary. These anomalies can (i) reach the Strait of Gibraltar and cause sea level changes in the Mediterranean Sea and (ii) represent a mechanism for negative feedback on the AMOC.« less
4. Mechanisms of Low-Frequency Variability in North Atlantic Ocean Heat Transport and AMOC

   https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0614.1  

   Oldenburg, Dylan ; Wills, Robert C. ; Armour, Kyle C. ; Thompson, LuAnne ; Jackson, Laura C. ( March 2021 , Journal of Climate)

   Abstract Ocean heat transport (OHT) plays a key role in climate and its variability. Here, we identify modes of low-frequency North Atlantic OHT variability by applying a low-frequency component analysis (LFCA) to output from three global climate models. The first low-frequency component (LFC), computed using this method, is an index of OHT variability that maximizes the ratio of low-frequency variance (occurring at decadal and longer timescales) to total variance. Lead-lag regressions of atmospheric and ocean variables onto the LFC timeseries illuminate the dominant mechanisms controlling low-frequency OHT variability. Anomalous northwesterly winds from eastern North America over the North Atlantic act to increase upper ocean density in the Labrador Sea region, enhancing deep convection, which later increases OHT via changes in the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). The strengthened AMOC carries warm, salty water into the subpolar gyre, reducing deep convection and weakening AMOC and OHT. This mechanism, where changes in AMOC and OHT are driven primarily by changes in Labrador Sea deep convection, holds not only in models where the climatological (i.e., time-mean) deep convection is concentrated in the Labrador Sea, but also in models where the climatological deep convection is concentrated in the Greenland-Iceland-Norwegian (GIN) Seasmore »or the Irminger and Iceland Basins. These results suggest that despite recent observational evidence suggesting that the Labrador Sea plays a minor role in driving the climatological AMOC, the Labrador Sea may still play an important role in driving low-frequency variability in AMOC and OHT.« less
5. Nordic Seas Hydrography in the Context of Arctic and North Atlantic Ocean Dynamics

   https://doi.org/10.1175/JPO-D-20-0071.1  

   Kenigson, J. S. ; Timmermans, M.-L. ( January 2021 , Journal of Physical Oceanography)

   Abstract The hydrography of the Nordic seas, a critical site for deep convective mixing, is controlled by various processes. On one hand, Arctic Ocean exports are thought to freshen the North Atlantic Ocean and the Nordic seas, as in the Great Salinity Anomalies (GSAs) of the 1970s–1990s. On the other hand, the salinity of the Nordic seas covaries with that of the Atlantic inflow across the Greenland–Scotland Ridge, leaving an uncertain role for Arctic Ocean exports. In this study, multidecadal time series (1950–2018) of the Nordic seas hydrography, Subarctic Front (SAF) in the North Atlantic Ocean [separating the water masses of the relatively cool, fresh Subpolar Gyre (SPG) from the warm, saline Subtropical Gyre (STG)], and atmospheric forcing are examined and suggest a unified view. The Nordic seas freshwater content is shown to covary on decadal time scales with the position of the SAF. When the SPG is strong, the SAF shifts eastward of its mean position, increasing the contribution of subpolar relative to subtropical source water to the Atlantic inflow, and vice versa. This suggests that Arctic Ocean fluxes primarily influence the hydrography of the Nordic seas via indirect means (i.e., by freshening the SPG). Case studies of twomore »years with anomalous NAO conditions illustrate how North Atlantic Ocean dynamics relate to the position of the SAF (as indicated by hydrographic properties and stratification changes in the upper water column), and therefore to the properties of the Atlantic inflow and Nordic seas.« less