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Abstract A recent study using the first 21 months of the OSNAP time series revealed that the export of dense waters in the eastern subpolar North Atlantic―as part of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC)―can be almost wholly attributed to surface‐forced water mass transformation (SFWMT) in the Irminger and Iceland basins, thus suggesting a minor role for other means of transformation, such as diapycnal mixing. To understand whether this result is valid over a period that exceeds the current observational record, we use four different ocean reanalysis products to investigate the relationship between surface buoyancy forcing and dense water production in this region. We also reexplore this relationship with the now available 6‐year OSNAP time series. Our analysis finds that although surface transformation in the eastern subpolar gyre dominates the production of deep waters, mixing processes downstream of the Greenland Scotland Ridge are also responsible for the production of waters carried within the AMOC's lower limb both in the observations and reanalyses. Further analysis of the reanalyses shows that SFWMT partly explains MOC interannual variability, the remaining portion can be attributed to basin storage and mixing. Compared to the observations, the reanalyses exhibit stronger MOC variance but comparable SFWMT variance on interannual timescales. 

Abstract The Deep Western Boundary Current (DWBC) is a major conduit for the equatorward export of dense waters formed in the subpolar North Atlantic and Nordic Seas that constitute the lower limb of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Here, we investigate the extent to which there is coherent propagation of property anomalies along the DWBC from the Labrador Sea exit to 26.5°N. Past studies have focused on relationships between DWBC anomalies at selected sites. Here we use a hydrographic data set (EN4) that covers the time period of 1970–2020 to examine coherence continuously along the boundary current. Our findings reveal sharp differences between the upper and deep Labrador Sea Water (uLSW, dLSW). Specifically, dLSW property anomalies are highly correlated at all points downstream to the Labrador Sea exit. Furthermore, the lags that yield maximum correlations uniformly increase with distance along the boundary. uLSW, however, shows a sharp decline in coherence along the boundary such that the anomalies downstream are poorly correlated with those at the Labrador Sea exit and the lag times are not monotonic. Most of the decline in uLSW coherence occurs from the Labrador Sea exit to Flemish Cap, where local variability at uLSW densities is large. Our study sheds light on the competition between advected property variability and local property variability that impacts the identification of anomalies downstream. The uLSW and dLSW differences expressed along the DWBC are also evident offshore, consistent with past Lagrangian studies. 

Abstract The export of the North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) from the subpolar North Atlantic is known to affect the variability in the lower limb of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). However, the respective impact from the transport in the upper NADW (UNADW) and lower NADW (LNADW) layers, and from the various transport branches through the boundary and interior flows, on the subpolar overturning variability remains elusive. To address this, the spatiotemporal characteristics of the circulation of NADW throughout the eastern subpolar basins are examined, mainly based on the 2014–20 observations from the transatlantic Overturning in the Subpolar North Atlantic Program (OSNAP) array. It reveals that the time-mean transport within the overturning’s lower limb across the eastern subpolar gyre [−13.0 ± 0.5 Sv (1 Sv ≡ 10⁶m³s⁻¹)] mostly occurs in the LNADW layer (−9.4 Sv or 72% of the mean), while the lower limb variability is mainly concentrated in the UNADW layer (57% of the total variance). This analysis further demonstrates a dominant role in the lower limb variability by coherent intraseasonal changes across the region that result from a basinwide barotropic response to changing wind fields. By comparison, there is just a weak seasonal cycle in the flows along the western boundary of the basins, in response to the surface buoyancy-induced water mass transformation. 

Abstract The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), a key mechanism in the climate system, delivers warm and salty waters from the subtropical gyre to the subpolar gyre and Nordic Seas, where they are transformed into denser waters flowing southward in the lower AMOC limb. The prevailing hypothesis is that dense waters formed in the Labrador and Nordic Seas are the sources for the AMOC lower limb. However, recent observations reveal that convection in the Labrador Sea contributes minimally to the total overturning of the subpolar gyre. In this study, we show that the AMOC is instead primarily composed of waters formed in the Nordic Seas and Irminger and Iceland basins. A first direct estimate of heat and freshwater fluxes over these basins demonstrates that buoyancy forcing during the winter months can almost wholly account for the dense waters of the subpolar North Atlantic that are exported as part of the AMOC. 

A well-known exception to rising sea surface temperatures (SST) across the globe is the subpolar North Atlantic, where SST has been declining at a rate of 0.39 (± 0.23) K century−1 during the 1900–2017 period. This cold blob has been hypothesized to result from a slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Here, observation-based evidence is used to suggest that local atmospheric forcing can also contribute to the century-long cooling trend. Specifically, a 100-year SST trend simulated by an idealized ocean model forced by historical atmospheric forcing over the cold blob region matches 92% (± 77%) of the observed cooling trend. The data-driven simulations suggest that 54% (± 77%) of the observed cooling trend is the direct result of increased heat loss from the ocean induced by the overlying atmosphere, while the remaining 38% is due to strengthened local convection. An analysis of surface wind eddy kinetic energy suggests that the atmosphere-induced cooling may be linked to a northward migration of the jet stream, which exposes the subpolar North Atlantic to intensified storminess. 

Wintertime convection in the North Atlantic Ocean is a key component of the global climate as it produces dense waters at high latitudes that flow equatorward as part of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Recent work has highlighted the dominant role of the Irminger and Iceland basins in the production of North Atlantic Deep Water. Dense water formation in these basins is mainly explained by buoyancy forcing that transforms surface waters to the deep waters of the AMOC lower limb. Air-sea fluxes and the ocean surface density field are both key determinants of the buoyancy-driven transformation. We analyze these contributions to the transformation in order to better understand the connection between atmospheric forcing and the densification of surface water. More precisely, we study the impact of air-sea fluxes and the ocean surface density field on the transformation of subpolar mode water (SPMW) in the Iceland Basin, a water mass that “pre-conditions” dense water formation downstream. Analyses using 40 years of observations (1980–2019) reveal that the variance in SPMW transformation is mainly influenced by the variance in density at the ocean surface. This surface density is set by a combination of advection, wind-driven upwelling and surface fluxes. Our study shows that the latter explains ∼ 30 % of the variance in outcrop area as expressed by the surface area between the outcropped SPMW isopycnals. The key role of the surface density in SPMW transformation partly explains the unusually large SPMW transformation in winter 2014–2015 over the Iceland Basin. 

Continuous measurements from the OSNAP (Overturning in the Subpolar North Atlantic Program) array yield the first estimates of trans-basin heat and salinity transports in the subpolar latitudes. For the period from August 2014 to May 2018, there is a poleward heat transport of 0.50 ± 0.05 PW and a poleward salinity transport of 12.5 ± 1.0 Sv across the OSNAP section. Based on the mass and salt budget analyses, we estimate that a surface freshwater input of 0.36 ± 0.05 Sv over the broad subpolar-Arctic region is needed to balance the ocean salinity change created by the OSNAP transports. The overturning circulation is largely responsible for setting these heat and salinity transports (and the derived surface freshwater input) derived from the OSNAP array, while the gyre (isopycnal) circulation contributes to a lesser, but still significant, extent. Despite its relatively weak overturning and heat transport, the Labrador Sea is a strong contributor to salinity and freshwater changes in the subpolar region. Combined with trans-basin transport estimates at other locations, we provide new estimates for the time-mean surface heat and freshwater divergences over a wide domain of the Arctic-North Atlantic region to the north and south of the OSNAP line. Furthermore, we estimate the total heat and freshwater exchanges across the surface area of the extratropical North Atlantic between the OSNAP and the RAPID-MOCHA (RAPID Meridional Overturning Circulation and Heat-flux Array) arrays, by combining the cross-sectional transports with vertically-integrated ocean heat and salinity content. Comparisons with the air-sea heat and freshwater fluxes from atmospheric reanalysis products show an overall consistency, yet with notable differences in the magnitudes during the observation time period.