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1. Estimating Causal Effects from Learned Causal Networks

   Raichev, Anna; Tian, Jin; Ihler, Alexander; Dechter, Rina (October 2024, {IOS} Press)

   The standard approach to answering an identifiable causaleffect query (e.g., P(Y |do(X)) given a causal diagram and observational data is to first generate an estimand, or probabilistic expression over the observable variables, which is then evaluated using the observational data. In this paper, we propose an alternative paradigm for answering causal-effect queries over discrete observable variables. We propose to instead learn the causal Bayesian network and its confounding latent variables directly from the observational data. Then, efficient probabilistic graphical model (PGM) algorithms can be applied to the learned model to answer queries. Perhaps surprisingly, we show that this model completion learning approach can be more effective than estimand approaches, particularly for larger models in which the estimand expressions become computationally difficult. We illustrate our method’s potential using a benchmark collection of Bayesian networks and synthetically generated causal models 

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2. KCRL: A Prior Knowledge Based Causal Discovery Framework With Reinforcement Learning

   Hasan, Uzma; Gani, Md Osman (April 2022, Proceedings of Machine Learning Research)

   Causal discovery is an important problem in many sciences that enables us to estimate causal relationships from observational data. Particularly, in the healthcare domain, it can guide practitioners in making informed clinical decisions. Several causal discovery approaches have been developed over the last few decades. The success of these approaches mostly relies on a large number of data samples. In practice, however, an infinite amount of data is never available. Fortunately, often we have some prior knowledge available from the problem domain. Particularly, in healthcare settings, we often have some prior knowledge such as expert opinions, prior RCTs, literature evidence, and systematic reviews about the clinical problem. This prior information can be utilized in a systematic way to address the data scarcity problem. However, most of the existing causal discovery approaches lack a systematic way to incorporate prior knowledge during the search process. Recent advances in reinforcement learning techniques can be explored to use prior knowledge as constraints by penalizing the agent for their violations. Therefore, in this work, we propose a framework KCRL that utilizes the existing knowledge as a constraint to penalize the search process during causal discovery. This utilization of existing information during causal discovery reduces the graph search space and enables a faster convergence to the optimal causal mechanism. We evaluated our framework on benchmark synthetic and real datasets as well as on a real-life healthcare application. We also compared its performance with several baseline causal discovery methods. The experimental findings show that penalizing the search process for constraint violation yields better performance compared to existing approaches that do not include prior knowledge. 

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3. A hierarchical ensemble causal structure learning approach for wafer manufacturing

   https://doi.org/10.1007/s10845-023-02188-z  

   Yang, Yu; Bom, Sthitie; Shen, Xiaotong (October 2023, Journal of Intelligent Manufacturing)

   In manufacturing, causal relations between components have become crucial to automate assembly lines. Identifying these relations permits error tracing and correction in the absence of domain experts, in addition to advancing our knowledge about the operating characteristics of a complex system. This paper is motivated by a case study focusing on deciphering the causal structure of a wafer manufacturing system using data from sensors and abnormality monitors deployed within the assembly line. In response to the distinctive characteristics of the wafer manufacturing data, such as multimodality, high-dimensionality, imbalanced classes, and irregular missing patterns, we propose a hierarchical ensemble approach. This method leverages the temporal and domain constraints inherent in the assembly line and provides a measure of uncertainty in causal discovery. We extensively examine its operating characteristics via simulations and validate its effectiveness through simulation experiments and a practical application involving data obtained from Seagate Technology. Domain engineers have cross-validated the learned structures and corroborated the identified causal relationships. 

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4. Causal Relational Learning

   https://doi.org/10.1145/3318464.3389759  

   Salimi, Babak; Parikh, Harsh; Kayali, Moe; Getoor, Lise; Roy, Sudeepa; Suciu, Dan (May 2020, SIGMOD)

   Causal inference is at the heart of empirical research in natu- ral and social sciences and is critical for scientific discovery and informed decision making. The gold standard in causal inference is performing randomized controlled trials; unfortu- nately these are not always feasible due to ethical, legal, or cost constraints. As an alternative, methodologies for causal inference from observational data have been developed in sta- tistical studies and social sciences. However, existing meth- ods critically rely on restrictive assumptions such as the study population consisting of homogeneous elements that can be represented in a single flat table, where each row is referred to as a unit. In contrast, in many real-world set- tings, the study domain naturally consists of heterogeneous elements with complex relational structure, where the data is naturally represented in multiple related tables. In this paper, we present a formal framework for causal inference from such relational data. We propose a declarative language called CaRL for capturing causal background knowledge and assumptions, and specifying causal queries using simple Datalog-like rules. CaRL provides a foundation for infer- ring causality and reasoning about the effect of complex interventions in relational domains. We present an extensive experimental evaluation on real relational data to illustrate the applicability of CaRL in social sciences and healthcare. 

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5. Towards Characterizing Domain Counterfactuals for Invertible Latent Causal Models

   Zhou, Zeyu; Bai, Ruqi; Kulinski, Sean; Kocaoglu, Murat; Inouye, David I (May 2024, International Conference on Learning Representations)

   Answering counterfactual queries has important applications such as explainability, robustness, and fairness but is challenging when the causal variables are unobserved and the observations are non-linear mixtures of these latent variables, such as pixels in images. One approach is to recover the latent Structural Causal Model (SCM), which may be infeasible in practice due to requiring strong assumptions, e.g., linearity of the causal mechanisms or perfect atomic interventions. Meanwhile, more practical ML-based approaches using naive domain translation models to generate counterfactual samples lack theoretical grounding and may construct invalid counterfactuals. In this work, we strive to strike a balance between practicality and theoretical guarantees by analyzing a specific type of causal query called domain counterfactuals, which hypothesizes what a sample would have looked like if it had been generated in a different domain (or environment). We show that recovering the latent SCM is unnecessary for estimating domain counterfactuals, thereby sidestepping some of the theoretic challenges. By assuming invertibility and sparsity of intervention, we prove domain counterfactual estimation error can be bounded by a data fit term and intervention sparsity term. Building upon our theoretical results, we develop a theoretically grounded practical algorithm that simplifies the modeling process to generative model estimation under autoregressive and shared parameter constraints that enforce intervention sparsity. Finally, we show an improvement in counterfactual estimation over baseline methods through extensive simulated and image-based experiments. 

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