skip to main content


Title: Time Series Forecasting for Structures Subjected to Nonstationary Inputs
Abstract

In this paper, a method for real-time forecasting of the dynamics of structures experiencing nonstationary inputs is described. This is presented as time series predictions across different timescales. The target applications include hypersonic vehicles, space launch systems, real-time prognostics, and monitoring of high-rate and energetic systems. This work presents numerical analysis and experimental results for the real-time implementation of a Fast Fourier Transform (FFT)-based approach for time series forecasting. For this preliminary study, a testbench structure that consists of a cantilever beam subjected to nonstationary inputs is used to generate experimental data. First, the data is de-trended, then the time series data is transferred into the frequency domain, and measures for frequency, amplitude, and phase are obtained. Thereafter, select frequency components are collected, transformed back to the time domain, recombined, and then the trend in the data is restored. Finally, the recombined signals are propagated into the future to the selected prediction horizon. This preliminary time series forecasting work is done offline using pre-recorded experimental data, and the FFT-based approach is implemented in a rolling window configuration. Here learning windows of 0.1, 0.5, and 1 s are considered with different computation times simulated. Results demonstrate that the proposed FFT-based approach can maintain a constant prediction horizon at 1 s with sufficient accuracy for the considered system. The performance of the system is quantified using a variety of metrics. Computational speed and prediction accuracy as a function of training time and learning window lengths are examined in this work. The algorithm configuration with the shortest learning window (0.1 s) is shown to converge faster following the nonstationary when compared to algorithm configuration with longer learning windows.

 
more » « less
Award ID(s):
1850012 1956071
NSF-PAR ID:
10316131
Author(s) / Creator(s):
; ; ;
Date Published:
Journal Name:
ASME 2021 Conference on Smart Materials, Adaptive Structures and Intelligent Systems
Volume:
85499
Format(s):
Medium: X
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
More Like this
  1. Han, Jae-Hung ; Shahab, Shima ; Yang, Jinkyu (Ed.)
    Hard real-time time-series forecasting of temporal signals has applications in the field of structural health monitoring and control. Particularly for structures experiencing high-rate dynamics, examples of such structures include hypersonic vehicles and space infrastructure. This work reports on the development of a coupled softwarehardware algorithm for deterministic and low-latency online time-series forecasting of structural vibrations that is capable of learning over nonstationary events and adjusting its forecasted signal following an event. The proposed algorithm uses an ensemble of multi-layer perceptrons trained offline on experimental and simulated data relevant to the structure. A dynamic attention layer is then used to selectively scale the outputs of the individual models to obtain a unified forecasted signal over the considered prediction horizon. The scalar values of the dynamic attention layer are continuously updated by quantifying the error between the signal’s measured value and its previously predicted value. Deterministic timing of the proposed algorithm is achieved through its deployment on a field programmable gate array. The performance of the proposed algorithm is validated on experimental data taken on a test structure. Results demonstrate that a total system latency of 25.76 µs can be achieved on a Kintex-7 70T FPGA with sufficient accuracy for the considered system. 
    more » « less
  2. Obeid, Iyad Selesnick (Ed.)
    Electroencephalography (EEG) is a popular clinical monitoring tool used for diagnosing brain-related disorders such as epilepsy [1]. As monitoring EEGs in a critical-care setting is an expensive and tedious task, there is a great interest in developing real-time EEG monitoring tools to improve patient care quality and efficiency [2]. However, clinicians require automatic seizure detection tools that provide decisions with at least 75% sensitivity and less than 1 false alarm (FA) per 24 hours [3]. Some commercial tools recently claim to reach such performance levels, including the Olympic Brainz Monitor [4] and Persyst 14 [5]. In this abstract, we describe our efforts to transform a high-performance offline seizure detection system [3] into a low latency real-time or online seizure detection system. An overview of the system is shown in Figure 1. The main difference between an online versus offline system is that an online system should always be causal and has minimum latency which is often defined by domain experts. The offline system, shown in Figure 2, uses two phases of deep learning models with postprocessing [3]. The channel-based long short term memory (LSTM) model (Phase 1 or P1) processes linear frequency cepstral coefficients (LFCC) [6] features from each EEG channel separately. We use the hypotheses generated by the P1 model and create additional features that carry information about the detected events and their confidence. The P2 model uses these additional features and the LFCC features to learn the temporal and spatial aspects of the EEG signals using a hybrid convolutional neural network (CNN) and LSTM model. Finally, Phase 3 aggregates the results from both P1 and P2 before applying a final postprocessing step. The online system implements Phase 1 by taking advantage of the Linux piping mechanism, multithreading techniques, and multi-core processors. To convert Phase 1 into an online system, we divide the system into five major modules: signal preprocessor, feature extractor, event decoder, postprocessor, and visualizer. The system reads 0.1-second frames from each EEG channel and sends them to the feature extractor and the visualizer. The feature extractor generates LFCC features in real time from the streaming EEG signal. Next, the system computes seizure and background probabilities using a channel-based LSTM model and applies a postprocessor to aggregate the detected events across channels. The system then displays the EEG signal and the decisions simultaneously using a visualization module. The online system uses C++, Python, TensorFlow, and PyQtGraph in its implementation. The online system accepts streamed EEG data sampled at 250 Hz as input. The system begins processing the EEG signal by applying a TCP montage [8]. Depending on the type of the montage, the EEG signal can have either 22 or 20 channels. To enable the online operation, we send 0.1-second (25 samples) length frames from each channel of the streamed EEG signal to the feature extractor and the visualizer. Feature extraction is performed sequentially on each channel. The signal preprocessor writes the sample frames into two streams to facilitate these modules. In the first stream, the feature extractor receives the signals using stdin. In parallel, as a second stream, the visualizer shares a user-defined file with the signal preprocessor. This user-defined file holds raw signal information as a buffer for the visualizer. The signal preprocessor writes into the file while the visualizer reads from it. Reading and writing into the same file poses a challenge. The visualizer can start reading while the signal preprocessor is writing into it. To resolve this issue, we utilize a file locking mechanism in the signal preprocessor and visualizer. Each of the processes temporarily locks the file, performs its operation, releases the lock, and tries to obtain the lock after a waiting period. The file locking mechanism ensures that only one process can access the file by prohibiting other processes from reading or writing while one process is modifying the file [9]. The feature extractor uses circular buffers to save 0.3 seconds or 75 samples from each channel for extracting 0.2-second or 50-sample long center-aligned windows. The module generates 8 absolute LFCC features where the zeroth cepstral coefficient is replaced by a temporal domain energy term. For extracting the rest of the features, three pipelines are used. The differential energy feature is calculated in a 0.9-second absolute feature window with a frame size of 0.1 seconds. The difference between the maximum and minimum temporal energy terms is calculated in this range. Then, the first derivative or the delta features are calculated using another 0.9-second window. Finally, the second derivative or delta-delta features are calculated using a 0.3-second window [6]. The differential energy for the delta-delta features is not included. In total, we extract 26 features from the raw sample windows which add 1.1 seconds of delay to the system. We used the Temple University Hospital Seizure Database (TUSZ) v1.2.1 for developing the online system [10]. The statistics for this dataset are shown in Table 1. A channel-based LSTM model was trained using the features derived from the train set using the online feature extractor module. A window-based normalization technique was applied to those features. In the offline model, we scale features by normalizing using the maximum absolute value of a channel [11] before applying a sliding window approach. Since the online system has access to a limited amount of data, we normalize based on the observed window. The model uses the feature vectors with a frame size of 1 second and a window size of 7 seconds. We evaluated the model using the offline P1 postprocessor to determine the efficacy of the delayed features and the window-based normalization technique. As shown by the results of experiments 1 and 4 in Table 2, these changes give us a comparable performance to the offline model. The online event decoder module utilizes this trained model for computing probabilities for the seizure and background classes. These posteriors are then postprocessed to remove spurious detections. The online postprocessor receives and saves 8 seconds of class posteriors in a buffer for further processing. It applies multiple heuristic filters (e.g., probability threshold) to make an overall decision by combining events across the channels. These filters evaluate the average confidence, the duration of a seizure, and the channels where the seizures were observed. The postprocessor delivers the label and confidence to the visualizer. The visualizer starts to display the signal as soon as it gets access to the signal file, as shown in Figure 1 using the “Signal File” and “Visualizer” blocks. Once the visualizer receives the label and confidence for the latest epoch from the postprocessor, it overlays the decision and color codes that epoch. The visualizer uses red for seizure with the label SEIZ and green for the background class with the label BCKG. Once the streaming finishes, the system saves three files: a signal file in which the sample frames are saved in the order they were streamed, a time segmented event (TSE) file with the overall decisions and confidences, and a hypotheses (HYP) file that saves the label and confidence for each epoch. The user can plot the signal and decisions using the signal and HYP files with only the visualizer by enabling appropriate options. For comparing the performance of different stages of development, we used the test set of TUSZ v1.2.1 database. It contains 1015 EEG records of varying duration. The any-overlap performance [12] of the overall system shown in Figure 2 is 40.29% sensitivity with 5.77 FAs per 24 hours. For comparison, the previous state-of-the-art model developed on this database performed at 30.71% sensitivity with 6.77 FAs per 24 hours [3]. The individual performances of the deep learning phases are as follows: Phase 1’s (P1) performance is 39.46% sensitivity and 11.62 FAs per 24 hours, and Phase 2 detects seizures with 41.16% sensitivity and 11.69 FAs per 24 hours. We trained an LSTM model with the delayed features and the window-based normalization technique for developing the online system. Using the offline decoder and postprocessor, the model performed at 36.23% sensitivity with 9.52 FAs per 24 hours. The trained model was then evaluated with the online modules. The current performance of the overall online system is 45.80% sensitivity with 28.14 FAs per 24 hours. Table 2 summarizes the performances of these systems. The performance of the online system deviates from the offline P1 model because the online postprocessor fails to combine the events as the seizure probability fluctuates during an event. The modules in the online system add a total of 11.1 seconds of delay for processing each second of the data, as shown in Figure 3. In practice, we also count the time for loading the model and starting the visualizer block. When we consider these facts, the system consumes 15 seconds to display the first hypothesis. The system detects seizure onsets with an average latency of 15 seconds. Implementing an automatic seizure detection model in real time is not trivial. We used a variety of techniques such as the file locking mechanism, multithreading, circular buffers, real-time event decoding, and signal-decision plotting to realize the system. A video demonstrating the system is available at: https://www.isip.piconepress.com/projects/nsf_pfi_tt/resources/videos/realtime_eeg_analysis/v2.5.1/video_2.5.1.mp4. The final conference submission will include a more detailed analysis of the online performance of each module. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Research reported in this publication was most recently supported by the National Science Foundation Partnership for Innovation award number IIP-1827565 and the Pennsylvania Commonwealth Universal Research Enhancement Program (PA CURE). Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the official views of any of these organizations. REFERENCES [1] A. Craik, Y. He, and J. L. Contreras-Vidal, “Deep learning for electroencephalogram (EEG) classification tasks: a review,” J. Neural Eng., vol. 16, no. 3, p. 031001, 2019. https://doi.org/10.1088/1741-2552/ab0ab5. [2] A. C. Bridi, T. Q. Louro, and R. C. L. Da Silva, “Clinical Alarms in intensive care: implications of alarm fatigue for the safety of patients,” Rev. Lat. Am. Enfermagem, vol. 22, no. 6, p. 1034, 2014. https://doi.org/10.1590/0104-1169.3488.2513. [3] M. Golmohammadi, V. Shah, I. Obeid, and J. Picone, “Deep Learning Approaches for Automatic Seizure Detection from Scalp Electroencephalograms,” in Signal Processing in Medicine and Biology: Emerging Trends in Research and Applications, 1st ed., I. Obeid, I. Selesnick, and J. Picone, Eds. New York, New York, USA: Springer, 2020, pp. 233–274. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-36844-9_8. [4] “CFM Olympic Brainz Monitor.” [Online]. Available: https://newborncare.natus.com/products-services/newborn-care-products/newborn-brain-injury/cfm-olympic-brainz-monitor. [Accessed: 17-Jul-2020]. [5] M. L. Scheuer, S. B. Wilson, A. Antony, G. Ghearing, A. Urban, and A. I. Bagic, “Seizure Detection: Interreader Agreement and Detection Algorithm Assessments Using a Large Dataset,” J. Clin. Neurophysiol., 2020. https://doi.org/10.1097/WNP.0000000000000709. [6] A. Harati, M. Golmohammadi, S. Lopez, I. Obeid, and J. Picone, “Improved EEG Event Classification Using Differential Energy,” in Proceedings of the IEEE Signal Processing in Medicine and Biology Symposium, 2015, pp. 1–4. https://doi.org/10.1109/SPMB.2015.7405421. [7] V. Shah, C. Campbell, I. Obeid, and J. Picone, “Improved Spatio-Temporal Modeling in Automated Seizure Detection using Channel-Dependent Posteriors,” Neurocomputing, 2021. [8] W. Tatum, A. Husain, S. Benbadis, and P. Kaplan, Handbook of EEG Interpretation. New York City, New York, USA: Demos Medical Publishing, 2007. [9] D. P. Bovet and C. Marco, Understanding the Linux Kernel, 3rd ed. O’Reilly Media, Inc., 2005. https://www.oreilly.com/library/view/understanding-the-linux/0596005652/. [10] V. Shah et al., “The Temple University Hospital Seizure Detection Corpus,” Front. Neuroinform., vol. 12, pp. 1–6, 2018. https://doi.org/10.3389/fninf.2018.00083. [11] F. Pedregosa et al., “Scikit-learn: Machine Learning in Python,” J. Mach. Learn. Res., vol. 12, pp. 2825–2830, 2011. https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.5555/1953048.2078195. [12] J. Gotman, D. Flanagan, J. Zhang, and B. Rosenblatt, “Automatic seizure detection in the newborn: Methods and initial evaluation,” Electroencephalogr. Clin. Neurophysiol., vol. 103, no. 3, pp. 356–362, 1997. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0013-4694(97)00003-9. 
    more » « less
  3. Computational modeling and experimental/clinical prediction of the complex signals during cardiac arrhythmias have the potential to lead to new approaches for prevention and treatment. Machine-learning (ML) and deep-learning approaches can be used for time-series forecasting and have recently been applied to cardiac electrophysiology. While the high spatiotemporal nonlinearity of cardiac electrical dynamics has hindered application of these approaches, the fact that cardiac voltage time series are not random suggests that reliable and efficient ML methods have the potential to predict future action potentials. This work introduces and evaluates an integrated architecture in which a long short-term memory autoencoder (AE) is integrated into the echo state network (ESN) framework. In this approach, the AE learns a compressed representation of the input nonlinear time series. Then, the trained encoder serves as a feature-extraction component, feeding the learned features into the recurrent ESN reservoir. The proposed AE-ESN approach is evaluated using synthetic and experimental voltage time series from cardiac cells, which exhibit nonlinear and chaotic behavior. Compared to the baseline and physics-informed ESN approaches, the AE-ESN yields mean absolute errors in predicted voltage 6–14 times smaller when forecasting approximately 20 future action potentials for the datasets considered. The AE-ESN also demonstrates less sensitivity to algorithmic parameter settings. Furthermore, the representation provided by the feature-extraction component removes the requirement in previous work for explicitly introducing external stimulus currents, which may not be easily extracted from real-world datasets, as additional time series, thereby making the AE-ESN easier to apply to clinical data. 
    more » « less
  4. null (Ed.)
    Abstract

    Many structures are subjected to varying forces, moving boundaries, and other dynamic conditions. Whether part of a vehicle, building, or active energy mitigation device, data on such changes can represent useful knowledge, but also presents challenges in its collection and analysis. In systems where changes occur rapidly, assessment of the system’s state within a useful time span is required to enable an appropriate response before the system’s state changes further. Rapid state estimation is especially important but poses unique difficulties.

    In determining the state of a structural system subjected to high-rate dynamic changes, measuring the frequency response is one method that can be used to draw inferences, provided the system is adequately understood and defined. The work presented here is the result of an investigation into methods to determine the frequency response, and thus state, of a structure subjected to high-rate boundary changes in real-time.

    In order to facilitate development, the Air Force Research Laboratory created the DROPBEAR, a testbed with an oscillating beam subjected to a continuously variable boundary condition. One end of the beam is held by a stationary fixed support, while a pinned support is able to move along the beam’s length. The free end of the beam structure is instrumented with acceleration, velocity, and position sensors measuring the beam’s vertical axis. Direct position measurement of the pin location is also taken to provide a reference for comparison with numerical models.

    This work presents a numerical investigation into methods for extracting the frequency response of a structure in real-time. An FFT based method with a rolling window is used to track the frequency of a data set generated to represent the range of the DROPBEAR, and is run with multiple window lengths. The frequency precision and latency of the FFT method is analyzed in each configuration. A specialized frequency extraction technique, Delayed Comparison Error Minimization, is implemented with parameters optimized for the frequency range of interest. The performance metrics of latency and precision are analyzed and compared to the baseline rolling FFT method results, and applicability is discussed.

     
    more » « less
  5. Obeid, I. ; Selesnick, I. (Ed.)
    The Neural Engineering Data Consortium at Temple University has been providing key data resources to support the development of deep learning technology for electroencephalography (EEG) applications [1-4] since 2012. We currently have over 1,700 subscribers to our resources and have been providing data, software and documentation from our web site [5] since 2012. In this poster, we introduce additions to our resources that have been developed within the past year to facilitate software development and big data machine learning research. Major resources released in 2019 include: ● Data: The most current release of our open source EEG data is v1.2.0 of TUH EEG and includes the addition of 3,874 sessions and 1,960 patients from mid-2015 through 2016. ● Software: We have recently released a package, PyStream, that demonstrates how to correctly read an EDF file and access samples of the signal. This software demonstrates how to properly decode channels based on their labels and how to implement montages. Most existing open source packages to read EDF files do not directly address the problem of channel labels [6]. ● Documentation: We have released two documents that describe our file formats and data representations: (1) electrodes and channels [6]: describes how to map channel labels to physical locations of the electrodes, and includes a description of every channel label appearing in the corpus; (2) annotation standards [7]: describes our annotation file format and how to decode the data structures used to represent the annotations. Additional significant updates to our resources include: ● NEDC TUH EEG Seizure (v1.6.0): This release includes the expansion of the training dataset from 4,597 files to 4,702. Calibration sequences have been manually annotated and added to our existing documentation. Numerous corrections were made to existing annotations based on user feedback. ● IBM TUSZ Pre-Processed Data (v1.0.0): A preprocessed version of the TUH Seizure Detection Corpus using two methods [8], both of which use an FFT sliding window approach (STFT). In the first method, FFT log magnitudes are used. In the second method, the FFT values are normalized across frequency buckets and correlation coefficients are calculated. The eigenvalues are calculated from this correlation matrix. The eigenvalues and correlation matrix's upper triangle are used to generate feature. ● NEDC TUH EEG Artifact Corpus (v1.0.0): This corpus was developed to support modeling of non-seizure signals for problems such as seizure detection. We have been using the data to build better background models. Five artifact events have been labeled: (1) eye movements (EYEM), (2) chewing (CHEW), (3) shivering (SHIV), (4) electrode pop, electrostatic artifacts, and lead artifacts (ELPP), and (5) muscle artifacts (MUSC). The data is cross-referenced to TUH EEG v1.1.0 so you can match patient numbers, sessions, etc. ● NEDC Eval EEG (v1.3.0): In this release of our standardized scoring software, the False Positive Rate (FPR) definition of the Time-Aligned Event Scoring (TAES) metric has been updated [9]. The standard definition is the number of false positives divided by the number of false positives plus the number of true negatives: #FP / (#FP + #TN). We also recently introduced the ability to download our data from an anonymous rsync server. The rsync command [10] effectively synchronizes both a remote directory and a local directory and copies the selected folder from the server to the desktop. It is available as part of most, if not all, Linux and Mac distributions (unfortunately, there is not an acceptable port of this command for Windows). To use the rsync command to download the content from our website, both a username and password are needed. An automated registration process on our website grants both. An example of a typical rsync command to access our data on our website is: rsync -auxv nedc_tuh_eeg@www.isip.piconepress.com:~/data/tuh_eeg/ Rsync is a more robust option for downloading data. We have also experimented with Google Drive and Dropbox, but these types of technology are not suitable for such large amounts of data. All of the resources described in this poster are open source and freely available at https://www.isip.piconepress.com/projects/tuh_eeg/downloads/. We will demonstrate how to access and utilize these resources during the poster presentation and collect community feedback on the most needed additions to enable significant advances in machine learning performance. 
    more » « less