Abstract Lithology and microfossil biostratigraphy beneath the marshes of a central Oregon estuary limit geophysical models of Cascadia megathrust rupture during successive earthquakes by ruling out >0.5 m of coseismic coastal subsidence for the past 2000 yr. Although the stratigraphy in cores and outcrops includes as many as 12 peat-mud contacts, like those commonly inferred to record subsidence during megathrust earthquakes, mapping, qualitative diatom analysis, foraminiferal transfer function analysis, and 14C dating of the contacts failed to confirm that any contacts formed through subsidence during great earthquakes. Based on the youngest peat-mud contact’s distinctness, >400 m distribution, ∼0.6 m depth, and overlying probable tsunami deposit, we attribute it to the great 1700 CE Cascadia earthquake and(or) its accompanying tsunami. Minimal changes in diatom assemblages from below the contact to above its probable tsunami deposit suggest that the lower of several foraminiferal transfer function reconstructions of coseismic subsidence across the contact (0.1–0.5 m) is most accurate. The more limited stratigraphic extent and minimal changes in lithology, foraminifera, and(or) diatom assemblages across the other 11 peat-mud contacts are insufficient to distinguish them from contacts formed through small, gradual, or localized changes in tide levels during river floods, storm surges, and gradual sea-level rise. Although no data preclude any contacts from being synchronous with a megathrust earthquake, the evidence is equally consistent with all contacts recording relative sea-level changes below the ∼0.5 m detection threshold for distinguishing coseismic from nonseismic changes.
more »
« less
Timing and amount of southern Cascadia earthquake subsidence over the past 1700 years at northern Humboldt Bay, California, USA
Abstract Stratigraphic, lithologic, foraminiferal, and radiocarbon analyses indicate that at least four abrupt mud-over-peat contacts are recorded across three sites (Jacoby Creek, McDaniel Creek, and Mad River Slough) in northern Humboldt Bay, California, USA (∼44.8°N, −124.2°W). The stratigraphy records subsidence during past megathrust earthquakes at the southern Cascadia subduction zone ∼40 km north of the Mendocino Triple Junction. Maximum and minimum radiocarbon ages on plant macrofossils from above and below laterally extensive (>6 km) contacts suggest regional synchroneity of subsidence. The shallowest contact has radiocarbon ages that are consistent with the most recent great earthquake at Cascadia, which occurred at 250 cal yr B.P. (1700 CE). Using Bchron and OxCal software, we model ages for the three older contacts of ca. 875 cal yr B.P., ca. 1120 cal yr B.P., and ca. 1620 cal yr B.P. For each of the four earthquakes, we analyze foraminifera across representative mud-over-peat contacts selected from McDaniel Creek. Changes in fossil foraminiferal assemblages across all four contacts reveal sudden relative sea-level (RSL) rise (land subsidence) with submergence lasting from decades to centuries. To estimate subsidence during each earthquake, we reconstructed RSL rise across the contacts using the fossil foraminiferal assemblages in a Bayesian transfer function. The coseismic subsidence estimates are 0.85 ± 0.46 m for the 1700 CE earthquake, 0.42 ± 0.37 m for the ca. 875 cal yr B.P. earthquake, 0.79 ± 0.47 m for the ca. 1120 cal yr B.P. earthquake, and ≥0.93 m for the ca. 1620 cal yr B.P. earthquake. The subsidence estimate for the ca. 1620 cal yr B.P. earthquake is a minimum because the pre-subsidence paleoenvironment likely was above the upper limit of foraminiferal habitation. The subsidence estimate for the ca. 875 cal yr B.P. earthquake is less than (<50%) the subsidence estimates for other contacts and suggests that subsidence magnitude varied over the past four earthquake cycles in southern Cascadia.
more »
« less
- Award ID(s):
- 1755125
- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10317429
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- GSA Bulletin
- Volume:
- 133
- Issue:
- 9-10
- ISSN:
- 0016-7606
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
More Like this
-
-
more » « less
Abstract Coastal subsidence, dating of plant remains and tree rings, and evidence for tsunami inundation point to coseismic activity on a sizable portion of the Cascadia subduction zone around three centuries ago. A tsunami of remote origin in 1700 C.E., probably from Cascadia, caused flooding and damage in Japan. In previous modeling, this transpacific evidence was found most simply explained by one Cascadia rupture about 1,000 km long. Here I model tens of thousands of ruptures and simulate their subsidence and tsunami signals and show that it is possible that the earthquake was part of a sequence of several events. Partial rupture of ∼400 km offshore southern Oregon and northern California in one large M ≥ 8.7 earthquake can explain the tsunami in Japan without conflicting with the subsidence. As many as four more earthquakes with M ≤ 8.7 can complete the subsidence signal without their tsunamis being large enough to be recorded in Japan. The purpose of this study is not to find a single, most likely, scenario or disprove the single‐rupture hypothesis favored by alternative evidence such as turbidites. Rather, it demonstrates that a multiple rupture sequence may explain part of the available data, and therefore cannot be discounted. Given the gaps in the presently available estimates of subsidence it is also possible that segments of the megathrust, for example from Copalis to the Strait of Juan de Fuca, did not rupture in 1700. The findings have significant implications for Cascadia geodynamics and how earthquake and tsunami hazards in the region are quantified.
-
Glaciers are receding in the northern Antarctic Peninsula and exposing previously entombed soils and plants. We used 39 black (dead) mosses collected from rapidly retreating ice margins at four sites along the Antarctic Peninsula to determine the kill dates using radiocarbon measurements and to constrain the timing of past glacier advances over the last 1500 yr. We established strict new criteria for sample collection to promote robust estimates of plant death. We found distinct phases of ice advance during ca. 1300, 800, and 200 calibrated years before 1950 (cal yr B.P.). We report estimates of the rate of glacier advance at ca. 800 cal yr B.P. at Gamage and Bonaparte Points (southern Anvers Island) of 2.0 and 0.3 m/yr, respectively. Although the range of kill dates is relatively narrow within a region, suggesting multiple glaciers advanced simultaneously, the rates of local advances can vary by almost an order of magnitude and are much less than retreat rates. Our kill dates coincide with evidence for glacier advances from other studies in the northern Antarctic Peninsula at ca. 1300, 800, and 200 cal yr B.P. and for penguin colony abandonment at several sites in the region ranging from 450 to 0 cal yr B.P. The combination of our new terrestrial evidence for glacier advances with other lines of evidence shows the regional synchroneity of glacial dynamics and cryosphere-biosphere connections during rapid climate shifts and the sensitivity of terrestrial ecosystems to climate cooling.more » « less
-
more » « less
ABSTRACT The Lofoten and Vesterålen archipelagos are located off the outer coast of northern Norway far from the center of the former Fennoscandian Ice Sheet and near the continental shelf edge. Existing relative sea‐level (RSL) data indicate a pronounced mid‐Holocene transgression and interesting connections with the region's prehistoric human settlement history. Here we present seven new sea‐level index points from isolation basins and five terrestrial limiting points from a coastal sedimentary sequence to refine the region's RSL history. Ingression and isolation contacts in isolation basin sediment cores are identified using sedimentary geochemical data, scanning X‐ray fluorescence profiles and phytoplankton analysis. The ages of these contacts are determined using radiocarbon‐based age models. Our index points range from 11.2 to 1.5k cal a
bp and are combined with previously published data to predict the spatiotemporal evolution of sea level in this region using an ensemble of spatiotemporal empirical hierarchical models (STEHME). The new RSL curve constrains the timing of the mid‐Holocene transgression, which occurred from c. 9 to 6k cal abp when sea level increased from −4 to 7 m above present day. From c. 6 to 5k cal abp , RSL rapidly fell to c. 4 m above present values, and more gradually declined at an average rate of c. 0.8 m ka−1over the last 5k cal abp. Isobase maps derived using the STEHME show a decrease in the regional shoreline gradients since the transgression maximum from 0.25 to 0.07 m km−1. Our data also better define how RSL variations influenced the location and preservation of coastal settlement locations and harbors from the early Stone Age through historic intervals, improving understanding of regional human–environment interactions. -
Abstract Recent ice-mass loss driven by warming along the Antarctic Peninsula has resulted in rapid changes in uplift rates across the region. Are such events only a function of recent warming? If not, does the Earth response to such events last long enough to be preserved in Holocene records of relative sea level (RSL), and thus have a bearing on global-scale glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) models (e.g. ICE-6G)? Answering such questions in Antarctica is hindered by the scarcity of RSL reconstructions within the region. Here, a new RSL reconstruction for Antarctica is presented based on beach ridges from Joinville Island on the Antarctic Peninsula. We find that RSL has fallen 4.9 ± 0.58 m over the past 3100 yr, and that the island experienced a significant increase in the rate of RSL fall from 1540 ± 125 cal. (calibrated) yr B.P. to 1320 ± 125 cal. yr B.P. This increase in the rate of RSL fall is likely due to the viscoelastic response of the solid Earth to terrestrial ice-mass loss from the Antarctic Peninsula, similar to the Earth response experienced after ice-mass loss following acceleration of glaciers behind the collapsed Larsen B ice shelf in 2002 C.E. Additionally, slower rates of beach-ridge progradation from 695 ± 190 cal. yr B.P. to 235 ± 175 cal. yr B.P. potentially reflect erosion of beach ridges from a RSL rise induced by a local glacial advance. The rapid response of the Earth to minor ice-mass changes recorded in the RSL record further supports recent assertions of a more responsive Earth to glacial unloading and at time scales relevant for GIA of Holocene and Pleistocene sea levels. Thus, current continental and global GIA models may not accurately capture the ice-mass changes of the Antarctic ice sheets at decadal and centennial time scales.more » « less
- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
-
Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1130/B35701.1
