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1. Seasonal Dependency of Tropical Precipitation Change under Global Warming

   https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0032.1  

   Geng, Yu-Fan; Xie, Shang-Ping; Zheng, Xiao-Tong; Wang, Chuan-Yang (September 2020, Journal of Climate)

   null (Ed.)

   Abstract Tropical precipitation change under global warming varies with season. The present study investigates the characteristics and cause of the seasonality in rainfall change. Diagnostically, tropical precipitation change is decomposed into thermodynamic and dynamic components. The thermodynamic component represents the wet-get-wetter effect and its seasonality is due mostly to that in the mean vertical velocity, especially in the monsoon regions. The dynamic component includes the warmer-get-wetter effect due to the spatial variations in sea surface temperature (SST) warming, while the seasonality is due to that of the climatological SST and can be largely reproduced by an atmospheric model forced with the monthly climatological SST plus the annual-mean SST warming pattern. In the eastern equatorial Pacific where the SST warming is locally enhanced; for example, rainfall increases only during the March–May season when the climatological SST is high enough for deep convection. To the extent that the seasonality of tropical precipitation change over oceans arises mostly from that of the climatological SST, the results support the notion that reducing model biases in climatology improves regional rainfall projections. 

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2. Glacial changes in sea level modulated millennial-scale variability of Southeast Asian autumn monsoon rainfall

   https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2219489120  

   Patterson, Elizabeth W.; Johnson, Kathleen R.; Griffiths, Michael L.; Kinsley, Christopher W.; McGee, David; Du, Xiaojing; Pico, Tamara; Wolf, Annabel; Ersek, Vasile; Mortlock, Richard A.; et al (July 2023, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences)

   Most paleoclimate studies of Mainland Southeast Asia hydroclimate focus on the summer monsoon, with few studies investigating rainfall in other seasons. Here, we present a multiproxy stalagmite record (45,000 to 4,000 years) from central Vietnam, a region that receives most of its annual rainfall in autumn (September-November). We find evidence of a prolonged dry period spanning the last glacial maximum that is punctuated by an abrupt shift to wetter conditions during the deglaciation at ~14 ka. Paired with climate model simulations, we show that sea-level change drives autumn monsoon rainfall variability on glacial-orbital timescales. Consistent with the dry signal in the stalagmite record, climate model simulations reveal that lower glacial sea level exposes land in the Gulf of Tonkin and along the South China Shelf, reducing convection and moisture delivery to central Vietnam. When sea level rises and these landmasses flood at ~14 ka, moisture delivery to central Vietnam increases, causing an abrupt shift from dry to wet conditions. On millennial timescales, we find signatures of well-known Heinrich Stadials (HS) (dry conditions) and Dansgaard–Oeschger Events (wet conditions). Model simulations show that during the dry HS, changes in sea surface temperature related to meltwater forcing cause the formation of an anomalous anticyclone in the Western Pacific, which advects dry air across central Vietnam, decreasing autumn rainfall. Notably, sea level modulates the magnitude of millennial-scale dry and wet phases by muting dry events and enhancing wet events during periods of low sea level, highlighting the importance of this mechanism to autumn monsoon variability. 

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3. NOAA/WDS Paleoclimatology - Hoa Huong Cave d13C, d18O and Mg/Ca Data over the last 45,000 Years

   https://doi.org/10.25921/axna-4s49  

   Patterson, EW; Johnson, KR; Griffiths, ML; Kinsley, CW; McGee, D; Du, X; Pico, T; Wolf, A; Ersek, V; Mortlock, R; et al (January 2023, NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information)

   Most paleoclimate studies of Mainland Southeast Asia hydroclimate focus on the summer monsoon, with few studies investigating rainfall in other seasons. Here we present a multiproxy stalagmite record (45,000 – 4,000 years) from central Vietnam, a region that receives most of its annual rainfall in autumn (September-November). We find evidence of a prolonged dry period spanning the last glacial maximum that is punctuated by an abrupt shift to wetter conditions during the deglaciation at ~14ka. Paired with climate model simulations, we show that sea level change drives autumn monsoon rainfall variability on glacial-orbital timescales. Consistent with the dry signal in the stalagmite record, climate model simulations reveal that lower glacial sea level exposes land in the Gulf of Tonkin and along the South China Shelf, reducing convection and moisture delivery to central Vietnam. When sea level rises and these landmasses flood at ~14ka, moisture delivery to central Vietnam increases causing an abrupt shift from dry to wet conditions. On millennial timescales, we find signatures of well-known Heinrich Stadials (dry conditions) and Dansgaard-Oeschger Events (wet conditions). Model simulations show that during the dry Heinrich Stadials, changes in sea surface temperature related to meltwater forcing cause the formation of an anomalous anticyclone in the Western Pacific, which advects dry air across central Vietnam decreasing autumn rainfall. Notably, sea level modulates the magnitude of millennial-scale dry and wet phases by muting dry events and enhancing wet events during periods of low sea level, highlighting the importance of this mechanism to autumn monsoon variability. 

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4. Subseasonal convection variability over the Intra‐American Seas simulated by an AGCM and sensitivity to CMIP5 SST biases and projections

   https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6475  

   Vigaud, Nicolas; Lyon, Bradfield; Lee, Dong Eun (January 2020, International Journal of Climatology)

   Abstract The influence of coupled model sea surface temperature (SST) climatological biases and SST projections on daily convection over the Intra‐American Seas (IAS) during the May–November rainy season are examined by clustering (k − means) daily OLR anomalies in ECHAM5 atmospheric global climate model (AGCM) experiments. The AGCM is first forced by 1980–2005 observed SSTs (GOGA), then with climatological, multi‐model mean monthly climatological SST bias from 31 CMIP5 coupled models (HIST) and projected SST changes for 2040–2059 (PROJ) and 2080–2099 (PROJ2) imposed on top of observed values. A typology of seven recurrent convection regimes is identified and consists of three dry and four wet regimes, including three regimes characterized by tropical‐midlatitude interactions between surface convection cells across the IAS and Rossby wave in the upper‐troposphere, and a regime of broad wettening typical of the ITCZ. Compared to an earlier observational study, all seven regimes are reasonably well reproduced in the HIST runs. However, the latter exhibit drier dry regimes, a less wet ITCZ‐like wet regime and a southeastward shift of convective anomalies developing across the IAS in the three other regimes, all result in a drier simulated IAS climate compared to GOGA. ECHAM5 projection runs for PROJ and PROJ2 are both characterized by the inhibition of the broad ITCZ‐like wet regime, indicating a significant trend towards more frequent dry weather. Meanwhile, convection anomalies related to tropical‐midlatitude interactions are shifted further east of the Caribbean as lead increases. These results suggest more frequent and intense extreme rainfall over the tropical Atlantic and the southeast US, while parts of the Caribbean are projected to experience drier climate. The projected drying, however, is of the same order of magnitude as results from historical SST biases, suggesting that the latter need to be considered in model projections, which might underestimate future IAS drying. 

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5. Suppressed Daytime Convection Over the Amazon River

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD033627  

   Wu, M.; Lee, J. ‐E.; Wang, D.; Salameh, M. (July 2021, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres)

   Abstract We investigated the interaction between surface conditions and precipitating convection by comparing the Amazon River against the surrounding forest. Despite similar synoptic conditions within a few tens of kilometers, the river surface is substantially cooler than the surrounding forest during the day and warmer at night. We analyzed 20 years of high‐resolution satellite precipitation data and confirmed previous findings of daytime rainfall reduction over the river for the whole Amazon Basin. The percentage reduction is strongest during the dry‐to‐wet transition season. In addition, the percentage reduction of individual tributary is significantly correlated with the Laplacian of surface temperature, which causes thermally driven surface divergence and suppresses local convection. Additionally, nighttime rainfall is enhanced over tributaries near the Atlantic coast during the wet season. A regional climate model then simulates the local rainfall anomalies associated with the river. Above the river, moisture diverges near the surface and converges above the surface before the daytime rainfall, partially driven by the horizontal gradient of humidity. Unlike the river, moisture convergence within the boundary layer is more critical for the rainfall above the forest region. Our studies suggest that strong thermal contrast can be important in deriving heterogeneous convection in moist tropical regions. 

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