The COVID-19 pandemic brought unprecedented changes to various aspects of daily life, profoundly affecting human mobility. These changes in mobility patterns were not uniform, as numerous factors, including public health measures, socioeconomic status, and urban infrastructure, influenced them. This study examines human mobility changes during COVID-19 in San Diego County and New York City, employing Latent Profile Analysis (LPA) and various network measures to analyze connectivity and socioeconomic status (SES) within these regions. While many COVID-19 and mobility studies have revealed overall reductions in mobility or changes in mobility patterns, they often fail to specify ’where’ these changes occur and lack a detailed understanding of the relationship between SES and mobility changes. This creates a significant research gap in understanding the spatial and socioeconomic dimensions of mobility changes during the pandemic. This study aims to address this gap by providing a comprehensive analysis of how mobility patterns varied across different socioeconomic groups during the pandemic. By comparing mobility patterns before and during the pandemic, we aim to shed light on how this unprecedented event impacted different communities. Our research contributes to the literature by employing network science to examine COVID-19’s impact on human mobility, integrating SES variables into the analysis of mobility networks. This approach provides a detailed understanding of how social and economic factors influence movement patterns and urban connectivity, highlighting disparities in mobility and access across different socioeconomic groups. The results identify areas functioning as hubs or bridges and illustrate how these roles changed during COVID-19, revealing existing societal inequalities. Specifically, we observed that urban parks and rural areas with national parks became significant mobility hubs during the pandemic, while affluent areas with high educational attainment saw a decline in centrality measures, indicating a shift in urban mobility dynamics and exacerbating pre-existing socioeconomic disparities.
- Award ID(s):
- 2026814
- PAR ID:
- 10319982
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Scientific Reports
- Volume:
- 11
- Issue:
- 1
- ISSN:
- 2045-2322
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
More Like this
-
more » « less
Abstract -
null (Ed.)The policy induced decline of human mobility has been recognised as effective in controlling the spread of COVID-19, especially in the initial stage of the outbreak, although the relationship among mobility, policy implementation, and virus spread remains contentious. Coupling the data of confirmed COVID-19 cases with the Google mobility data in Australia, we present a state-level empirical study to: (1) inspect the temporal variation of the COVID-19 spread and the change of human mobility adherent to social restriction policies; (2) examine the extent to which different types of mobility are associated with the COVID-19 spread in eight Australian states/territories; and (3) analyse the time lag effect of mobility restriction on the COVID-19 spread. We find that social restriction policies implemented in the early stage of the pandemic controlled the COVID-19 spread effectively; the restriction of human mobility has a time lag effect on the growth rates of COVID-19, and the strength of the mobility-spread correlation increases up to seven days after policy implementation but decreases afterwards. The association between human mobility and COVID-19 spread varies across space and time and is subject to the types of mobility. Thus, it is important for government to consider the degree to which lockdown conditions can be eased by accounting for this dynamic mobility-spread relationship.more » « less
-
null (Ed.)Disease dynamics, human mobility, and public policies co-evolve during a pandemic such as COVID-19. Understanding dynamic human mobility changes and spatial interaction patterns are crucial for understanding and forecasting COVID- 19 dynamics. We introduce a novel graph-based neural network(GNN) to incorporate global aggregated mobility flows for a better understanding of the impact of human mobility on COVID-19 dynamics as well as better forecasting of disease dynamics. We propose a recurrent message passing graph neural network that embeds spatio-temporal disease dynamics and human mobility dynamics for daily state-level new confirmed cases forecasting. This work represents one of the early papers on the use of GNNs to forecast COVID-19 incidence dynamics and our methods are competitive to existing methods. We show that the spatial and temporal dynamic mobility graph leveraged by the graph neural network enables better long-term forecasting performance compared to baselines.more » « less
-
null (Ed.)The COVID-19 pandemic has posed grand challenges to policy makers, raising major social conflicts between public health and economic resilience. Policies such as closure or reopen of businesses are made based on scientific projections of infection risks obtained from infection dynamics models. While most parameters in infection dynamics models can be set using domain knowledge of COVID-19, a key parameter - human mobility - is often challenging to estimate due to complex social contexts and limited training data under escalating COVID-19 conditions. To address these challenges, we formulate the problem as a spatio-temporal data generation problem and propose COVID-GAN, a spatio-temporal Conditional Generative Adversarial Network, to estimate mobility (e.g., changes in POI visits) under various real-world conditions (e.g., COVID-19 severity, local policy interventions) integrated from multiple data sources. We also introduce a domain-constraint correction layer in the generator of COVID-GAN to reduce the difficulty of learning. Experiments using urban mobility data derived from cell phone records and census data show that COVID-GAN can well approximate real-world human mobility responses, and that the proposed domain-constraint based correction can greatly improve solution quality.more » « less
-
more » « less
Abstract Human mobility is fundamental to a range of applications including epidemic control, urban planning, and traffic engineering. While laws governing individual movement trajectories and population flows across locations have been extensively studied, the predictability of population-level mobility during the COVID-19 pandemic driven by specific activities such as work, shopping, and recreation remains elusive. Here we analyze mobility data for six place categories at the US county level from 2020 February 15 to 2021 November 23 and measure how the predictability of these mobility metrics changed during the COVID-19 pandemic. We quantify the time-varying predictability in each place category using an information-theoretic metric, permutation entropy. We find disparate predictability patterns across place categories over the course of the pandemic, suggesting differential behavioral changes in human activities perturbed by disease outbreaks. Notably, predictability change in foot traffic to residential locations is mostly in the opposite direction to other mobility categories. Specifically, visits to residences had the highest predictability during stay-at-home orders in March 2020, while visits to other location types had low predictability during this period. This pattern flipped after the lifting of restrictions during summer 2020. We identify four key factors, including weather conditions, population size, COVID-19 case growth, and government policies, and estimate their nonlinear effects on mobility predictability. Our findings provide insights on how people change their behaviors during public health emergencies and may inform improved interventions in future epidemics.
- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
-
Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-95894-8
