We propose a mathematical model to study coupled epidemic and opinion dynamics in a network of communities. Our model captures SIS epidemic dynamics whose evolution is dependent on the opinions of the communities toward the epidemic, and vice versa. In particular, we allow both cooperative and antagonistic interactions, representing similar and opposing perspectives on the severity of the epidemic, respectively. We propose an Opinion-Dependent Reproduction Number to characterize the mutual influence between epidemic spreading and opinion dissemination over the networks. Through stability analysis of the equilibria, we explore the impact of opinions on both epidemic outbreak and eradication, characterized by bounds on the Opinion-Dependent Reproduction Number. We also show how to eradicate epidemics by reshaping the opinions, offering researchers an approach for designing control strategies to reach target audiences to ensure effective epidemic suppression.
more »
« less
Peak Infection Time for a Networked SIR Epidemic with Opinion Dynamics
We propose an SIR epidemic model coupled with opinion dynamics to study an epidemic and opinions spreading in a network of communities. Our model couples networked SIR epidemic dynamics and opinions towards the severity of the epidemic. We develop an epidemic-opinion based threshold condition to capture the moment when a weighted average of the epidemic states starts to decrease exponentially fast over the network, namely the peak infection time. We define an effective reproduction number to characterize the behavior of the model through the peak infection time. We use both analytical and simulation-based results to illustrate that the opinions reflect the recovered levels within the communities after the epidemic dies out.
more »
« less
- PAR ID:
- 10320299
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- 2021 60th IEEE Conference on Decision and Control (CDC)
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
More Like this
-
-
Epidemics like Covid-19 and Ebola have impacted people’s lives signifcantly. The impact of mobility of people across the countries or states in the spread of epidemics has been signifcant. The spread of disease due to factors local to the population under consideration is termed the endogenous spread. The spread due to external factors like migration, mobility, etc., is called the exogenous spread. In this paper, we introduce the Exo-SIR model, an extension of the popular SIR model and a few variants of the model. The novelty in our model is that it captures both the exogenous and endogenous spread of the virus. First, we present an analytical study. Second, we simulate the Exo-SIR model with and without assuming contact network for the population. Third, we implement the Exo-SIR model on real datasets regarding Covid-19 and Ebola. We found that endogenous infection is infuenced by exogenous infection. Furthermore, we found that the Exo-SIR model predicts the peak time better than the SIR model. Hence, the Exo-SIR model would be helpful for governments to plan policy interventions at the time of a pandemic. Keywords Covid-19, Ebola, Epidemic modeling, Compartment model, Exogenous infection, Endogenous infection, SIR, Exo-SIRmore » « less
-
Abstract Individuals who interact with each other in social networks often exchange ideas and influence each other’s opinions. A popular approach to study the spread of opinions on networks is by examining bounded-confidence models (BCMs), in which the nodes of a network have continuous-valued states that encode their opinions and are receptive to other nodes’ opinions when they lie within some confidence bound of their own opinion. In this article, we extend the Deffuant–Weisbuch (DW) model, which is a well-known BCM, by examining the spread of opinions that coevolve with network structure. We propose an adaptive variant of the DW model in which the nodes of a network can (1) alter their opinions when they interact with neighbouring nodes and (2) break connections with neighbours based on an opinion tolerance threshold and then form new connections following the principle of homophily. This opinion tolerance threshold determines whether or not the opinions of adjacent nodes are sufficiently different to be viewed as ‘discordant’. Using numerical simulations, we find that our adaptive DW model requires a larger confidence bound than a baseline DW model for the nodes of a network to achieve a consensus opinion. In one region of parameter space, we observe ‘pseudo-consensus’ steady states, in which there exist multiple subclusters of an opinion cluster with opinions that differ from each other by a small amount. In our simulations, we also examine the roles of early-time dynamics and nodes with initially moderate opinions for achieving consensus. Additionally, we explore the effects of coevolution on the convergence time of our BCM.more » « less
-
In traditional models of opinion dynamics, each agent in a network has an opinion and changes in opinions arise from pairwise (i.e., dyadic) interactions between agents. However, in many situations, groups of individuals possess a collective opinion that can differ from the opinions of their constituent individuals. In this paper, we study the effects of group opinions on opinion dynamics. We formulate a hypergraph model in which both individual agents and groups of three agents have opinions, and we examine how opinions evolve through both dyadic interactions and group memberships. We find for some parameter values that the presence of group opinions can lead to oscillatory and excitable opinion dynamics. In the oscillatory regime, the mean opinion of the agents in a network has self-sustained oscillations. In the excitable regime, finite-size effects create large but short-lived opinion swings (as in social fads). We develop a mean-field approximation of our model and obtain good agreement with direct numerical simulations. We also show—both numerically and via our mean-field description—that oscillatory dynamics occur only when the numbers of dyadic and polyadic interactions of the agents are not completely correlated. Our results illustrate how polyadic structures, such as groups of agents, can have important effects on collective opinion dynamics.more » « less
-
null (Ed.)Mathematical models of the dynamics of infectious disease transmission are used to forecast epidemics and assess mitigation strategies. In this article, we highlight the analogy between the dynamics of disease transmission and chemical reaction kinetics while providing an exposition on the classic Susceptible–Infectious–Removed (SIR) epidemic model. Particularly, the SIR model resembles a dynamic model of a batch reactor carrying out an autocatalytic reaction with catalyst deactivation. This analogy between disease transmission and chemical reaction enables the exchange of ideas between epidemic and chemical kinetic modeling communities.more » « less
An official website of the United States government

