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1. Spatial and temporal variation in phenotypes and fitness in response to developmental thermal environments

   https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2435.13910  

   Pruett, Jenna E. ; Warner, Daniel A. ( October 2021 , Functional Ecology)

   Phenotypic variation within populations is influenced by the environment via plasticity and natural selection. How phenotypes respond to the environment can vary among traits, populations and life stages in ways that can influence fitness.

   Plastic responses during early development are particularly important because they can affect components of fitness throughout an individual's life. Consequently, how natural selection shapes developmental plasticity could be influenced by fitness consequences across different life stages. Moreover, spatial variation in selection pressures could generate differences in plastic responses among populations.

   To gain insight into sources of variation in phenotypes and survival, we used a laboratory egg incubation experiment using brown anole lizardsAnolis sagreifrom mainland (ancestral) and island (descendent) populations, combined with a mark–release–recapture experiment in the field. Our study was designed to (a) quantify the effects developmental temperature on embryo development and offspring morphology, (b) assess how developmental temperature influences offspring survival across different life stages and (c) quantify how thermal reaction norms vary among ancestral and descendant populations.

   Developmental temperature influenced offspring morphology, but thermal reaction norms of embryos showed little variation among populations. Developmental temperature influenced offspring survival, but the patterns differed between embryo and hatchling stages; the optimal temperature for embryos was about 5℃ lower than that for hatchlings. High temperatures were thermally stressful to embryos, but they reduced incubation duration and led to early hatching. In turn, earlier hatching increased the probability of survival to adulthood. Moreover, the effect of developmental temperature on hatchling survival was most pronounced for offspring that hatched late in the season.

   The difference in optimal developmental temperatures between life stages may be driven by physiological tolerance for embryos and by ecological factors for hatchlings. Moreover, the fitness consequences of the developmental environment depend on the phenology of hatching. Overall, these results highlight how the developmental environment can differentially affect fitness across life stages and show that temporal thermal heterogeneity can influence survival of embryos, but the consequences on post‐hatching stages may vary at different times of the season.

   A freePlain Language Summarycan be found within the Supporting Information of this article.

    

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2. Diminished warming tolerance and plasticity in low-latitude populations of a marine gastropod

   https://doi.org/10.1093/conphys/coab039  

   Villeneuve, Andrew R ; Komoroske, Lisa M ; Cheng, Brian S ( January 2021 , Conservation Physiology)

   Cooke, Steve (Ed.)

   Abstract Models of species response to climate change often assume that physiological traits are invariant across populations. Neglecting potential intraspecific variation may overlook the possibility that some populations are more resilient or susceptible than others, creating inaccurate predictions of climate impacts. In addition, phenotypic plasticity can contribute to trait variation and may mediate sensitivity to climate. Quantifying such forms of intraspecific variation can improve our understanding of how climate can affect ecologically important species, such as invasive predators. Here, we quantified thermal performance (tolerance, acclimation capacity, developmental traits) across seven populations of the predatory marine snail (Urosalpinx cinerea) from native Atlantic and non-native Pacific coast populations in the USA. Using common garden experiments, we assessed the effects of source population and developmental acclimation on thermal tolerance and developmental traits of F1 snails. We then estimated climate sensitivity by calculating warming tolerance (thermal tolerance − habitat temperature), using field environmental data. We report that low-latitude populations had greater thermal tolerance than their high latitude counterparts. However, these same low-latitude populations exhibited decreased thermal tolerance when exposed to environmentally realistic higher acclimation temperatures. Low-latitude native populations had the greatest climate sensitivity (habitat temperatures near thermal limits). In contrast, invasive Pacific snails had the lowest climate sensitivity, suggesting that these populations are likely to persist and drive negative impacts on native biodiversity. Developmental rate significantly increased in embryos sourced from populations with greater habitat temperature but had variable effects on clutch size and hatching success. Thus, warming can produce widely divergent responses within the same species, resulting in enhanced impacts in the non-native range and extirpation in the native range. Broadly, our results highlight how intraspecific variation can alter management decisions, as this may clarify whether management efforts should be focused on many or only a few populations. 

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3. Environment and phenology shape local adaptation in thermal performance

   https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2021.0741  

   Villeneuve, Andrew R. ; Komoroske, Lisa M. ; Cheng, Brian S. ( July 2021 , Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences)

   Populations within species often exhibit variation in traits that reflect local adaptation and further shape existing adaptive potential for species to respond to climate change. However, our mechanistic understanding of how the environment shapes trait variation remains poor. Here, we used common garden experiments to quantify thermal performance in eight populations of the marine snail Urosalpinx cinerea across thermal gradients on the Atlantic and the Pacific coasts of North America. We then evaluated the relationship between thermal performance and environmental metrics derived from time-series data. Our results reveal a novel pattern of ‘mixed’ trait performance adaptation, where thermal optima were positively correlated with spawning temperature (cogradient variation), while maximum trait performance was negatively correlated with season length (countergradient variation). This counterintuitive pattern probably arises because of phenological shifts in the spawning season, whereby ‘cold’ populations delay spawning until later in the year when temperatures are warmer compared to ‘warm’ populations that spawn earlier in the year when temperatures are cooler. Our results show that variation in thermal performance can be shaped by multiple facets of the environment and are linked to organismal phenology and natural history. Understanding the impacts of climate change on organisms, therefore, requires the knowledge of how climate change will alter different aspects of the thermal environment. 

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4. Variation in the seasonal germination niche across an elevational gradient: the role of germination cueing in current and future climates

   https://doi.org/doi.org/10.1002ajb2.1425  

   Gremer, J.R. ; Chiono, A ; Suglia, E ; Bontrager, M. ; Okafor, L. ; Schmitt, J ( January 2020 , AmericanEurasian journal of botany)

   The timing of germination has profound impacts on fitness, population dynamics, and species ranges. Many plants have evolved responses to seasonal environmental cues to time germination with favorable conditions; these responses interact with temporal variation in local climate to drive the seasonal climate niche and may reflect local adaptation. Here, we examined germination responses to temperature cues in Streptanthus tortuosus populations across an elevational gradient. Methods Using common garden experiments, we evaluated differences among populations in response to cold stratification (chilling) and germination temperature and related them to observed germination phenology in the field. We then explored how these responses relate to past climate at each site and the implications of those patterns under future climate change. Results Populations from high elevations had stronger stratification requirements for germination and narrower temperature ranges for germination without stratification. Differences in germination responses corresponded with elevation and variability in seasonal temperature and precipitation across populations. Further, they corresponded with germination phenology in the field; low‐elevation populations germinated in the fall without chilling, whereas high‐elevation populations germinated after winter chilling and snowmelt in spring and summer. Climate‐change forecasts indicate increasing temperatures and decreasing snowpack, which will likely alter germination cues and timing, particularly for high‐elevation populations. Conclusions The seasonal germination niche for S. tortuosus is highly influenced by temperature and varies across the elevational gradient. Climate change will likely affect germination timing, which may cascade to influence trait expression, fitness, and population persistence. 

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5. Phenology and productivity in a montane bird assemblage: Trends and responses to elevation and climate variation

   https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14538  

   Saracco, James_F ; Siegel, Rodney_B ; Helton, Lauren ; Stock, Sarah_L ; DeSante, David_F ( January 2019 , Global Change Biology)

   Climate variation has been linked to historical and predicted future distributions and dynamics of wildlife populations. However, demographic mechanisms underlying these changes remain poorly understood. Here, we assessed variation and trends in climate (annual snowfall and spring temperature anomalies) and avian demographic variables from mist‐netting data (breeding phenology and productivity) at six sites along an elevation gradient spanning the montane zone of Yosemite National Park between 1993 and 2017. We implemented multi‐species hierarchical models to relate demographic responses to elevation and climate covariates. Annual variation in climate and avian demographic variables was high. Snowfall declined (10 mm/year at the highest site, 2 mm at the lowest site), while spring temperature increased (0.045°C/year) over the study period. Breeding phenology (mean first capture date of juvenile birds) advanced by 0.2 day/year (5 days); and productivity (probability of capturing a juvenile bird) increased by 0.8%/year. Breeding phenology was 12 days earlier at the lowest compared to highest site, 18 days earlier in years with lowest compared to highest snowfall anomalies, and 6 d earlier in relatively warm springs (after controlling for snowfall effects). Productivity was positively related to elevation. However, elevation–productivity responses varied among species; species with higher productivity at higher compared to lower elevations tended to be species with documented range retractions during the past century. Productivity tended to be negatively related to snowfall and was positively related to spring temperature. Overall, our results suggest that birds have tracked the variable climatic conditions in this system and have benefited from a trend toward warmer, drier springs. However, we caution that continued warming and multi‐year drought or extreme weather years may alter these relationships in the future. Multi‐species demographic modeling, such as implemented here, can provide an important tool for guiding conservation of species assemblages under global change.

    

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