skip to main content
US FlagAn official website of the United States government
dot gov icon
Official websites use .gov
A .gov website belongs to an official government organization in the United States.
https lock icon
Secure .gov websites use HTTPS
A lock ( lock ) or https:// means you've safely connected to the .gov website. Share sensitive information only on official, secure websites.
Attention:The NSF Public Access Repository (NSF-PAR) system and access will be unavailable from 7:00 AM ET to 7:30 AM ET on Friday, April 24 due to maintenance. We apologize for the inconvenience.


Title: Multi-step ahead predictive model for blood glucose concentrations of type-1 diabetic patients
Abstract Continuous monitoring of blood glucose (BG) levels is a key aspect of diabetes management. Patients with Type-1 diabetes (T1D) require an effective tool to monitor these levels in order to make appropriate decisions regarding insulin administration and food intake to keep BG levels in target range. Effectively and accurately predicting future BG levels at multi-time steps ahead benefits a patient with diabetes by helping them decrease the risks of extremes in BG including hypo- and hyperglycemia. In this study, we present a novel multi-component deep learning model that predicts the BG levels in a multi-step look ahead fashion. The model is evaluated both quantitatively and qualitatively on actual blood glucose data for 97 patients. For the prediction horizon (PH) of 30 mins, the average values for root mean squared error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and normalized mean squared error (NRMSE) are $$23.22 \pm 6.39$$ 23.22 ± 6.39 mg/dL, 16.77 ± 4.87 mg/dL, $$12.84 \pm 3.68$$ 12.84 ± 3.68 and $$0.08 \pm 0.01$$ 0.08 ± 0.01 respectively. When Clarke and Parkes error grid analyses were performed comparing predicted BG with actual BG, the results showed average percentage of points in Zone A of $$80.17 \pm 9.20$$ 80.17 ± 9.20 and $$84.81 \pm 6.11,$$ 84.81 ± 6.11 , respectively. We offer this tool as a mechanism to enhance the predictive capabilities of algorithms for patients with T1D.  more » « less
Award ID(s):
1910539
PAR ID:
10327356
Author(s) / Creator(s):
; ; ; ; ;
Date Published:
Journal Name:
Scientific Reports
Volume:
11
Issue:
1
ISSN:
2045-2322
Format(s):
Medium: X
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
More Like this
  1. Abstract Background Blood glucose (BG) management is crucial for type-1 diabetes patients resulting in the necessity of reliable artificial pancreas or insulin infusion systems. In recent years, deep learning techniques have been utilized for a more accurate BG level prediction system. However, continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) readings are susceptible to sensor errors. As a result, inaccurate CGM readings would affect BG prediction and make it unreliable, even if the most optimal machine learning model is used. Methods In this work, we propose a novel approach to predicting blood glucose level with a stacked Long short-term memory (LSTM) based deep recurrent neural network (RNN) model considering sensor fault. We use the Kalman smoothing technique for the correction of the inaccurate CGM readings due to sensor error. Results For the OhioT1DM (2018) dataset, containing eight weeks’ data from six different patients, we achieve an average RMSE of 6.45 and 17.24 mg/dl for 30 min and 60 min of prediction horizon (PH), respectively. Conclusions To the best of our knowledge, this is the leading average prediction accuracy for the ohioT1DM dataset. Different physiological information, e.g., Kalman smoothed CGM data, carbohydrates from the meal, bolus insulin, and cumulative step counts in a fixed time interval, are crafted to represent meaningful features used as input to the model. The goal of our approach is to lower the difference between the predicted CGM values and the fingerstick blood glucose readings—the ground truth. Our results indicate that the proposed approach is feasible for more reliable BG forecasting that might improve the performance of the artificial pancreas and insulin infusion system for T1D diabetes management. 
    more » « less
  2. OBJECTIVETo characterize high type 1 diabetes (T1D) genetic risk in a population where type 2 diabetes (T2D) predominates. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODSCharacteristics typically associated with T1D were assessed in 109,594 Million Veteran Program participants with adult-onset diabetes, 2011–2021, who had T1D genetic risk scores (GRS) defined as low (0 to <45%), medium (45 to <90%), high (90 to <95%), or highest (≥95%). RESULTST1D characteristics increased progressively with higher genetic risk (P < 0.001 for trend). A GRS ≥ 90% was more common with diabetes diagnoses before age 40 years, but 95% of those participants were diagnosed at age ≥40 years, and they resembled T2D in mean age (64.3 years) and BMI (32.3 kg/m2). Compared with the low risk group, the highest-risk group was more likely to have diabetic ketoacidosis (low 0.9% vs. highest GRS 3.7%), hypoglycemia prompting emergency visits (3.7% vs. 5.8%), outpatient plasma glucose <50 mg/dL (7.5% vs. 13.4%), a shorter median time to start insulin (3.5 vs. 1.4 years), use of a T1D diagnostic code (16.3% vs. 28.1%), low C-peptide levels if tested (1.8% vs. 32.4%), and glutamic acid decarboxylase antibodies (6.9% vs. 45.2%), all P < 0.001. CONCLUSIONSCharacteristics associated with T1D were increased with higher genetic risk, and especially with the top 10% of risk. However, the age and BMI of those participants resemble people with T2D, and a substantial proportion did not have diagnostic testing or use of T1D diagnostic codes. T1D genetic screening could be used to aid identification of adult-onset T1D in settings in which T2D predominates. 
    more » « less
  3. Monitoring glucose levels is critical for effective diabetes management. Continuous glucose monitoring devices estimate interstitial glucose levels and provide alerts for glycemic excursions. However, they are expensive and invasive. Therefore, low-cost, noninvasive alternatives are useful for patients with diabetes. In this article, we explore electrocardiogram signals as a potential alternative to detecting glycemic excursions by extracting intrabeat (beat-morphology) and inter-beat (heart rate variability) information. Unlike prior methods that focused only on the standard clinical excursion thresholds (70 mg/dL for hypoglycemia, 180 mg/dL for hyperglycemia), our proposed approach trains independent machine learning models at various excursion thresholds, aggregating their outputs for a final prediction. This allows learning morphological patterns in the neighborhood of the standard excursion thresholds. Our personalized fusion models achieve an AUC of 75 % for hypoglycemia and 78% for hyperglycemia detection across patients, resulting in an average improvement of 4 % compared to the baseline models (trained using only standard clinical thresholds) for detecting glycemic excursions. We also find that combining morphology and HRV information outperforms using them individually (5 % for hypoglycemia and 6 % for hyperglycemia). The data used in this article was collected from 12 patients with type-1 diabetes, each monitored over a 14-day period at Texas Children’s Hospital, Houston. The results indicate that a combination of morphological and HRV features is essential for noninvasive detection of glycemic excursions. Also, morphological changes can happen at varying glucose levels for different patients and capturing these changes provide valuable information that leads to improved prediction performance for detecting glycemic excursions. 
    more » « less
  4. Children with Type 1 Diabetes (T1D) face many challenges with keeping their blood glucose levels within a healthy range because they cannot manage their illness by themselves. To prevent children’s blood glucose from becoming too high or too low, parents apply different strategies to avoid risky situations. To understand how parents of children with T1D manage these risks, we conducted semi-structured interviews with children with T1D (ages 6-12) and their parents (N=41). We identified four types of strategies used by parents (i.e., educated guessing game, contingency planning, experimentation, and reaching out for help) that can be categorized according to two dimensions: 1) the cause of risk (known or unknown) and 2) the occurrence of risk (predictable or unpredictable). Based on our findings, we provide design implications for collaborative health technologies that support parents in better planning for contingencies and identifying unknown causes of risks together with their children. 
    more » « less
  5. A disposable paper-based glucose biosensor with direct electron transfer (DET) of glucose oxidase (GOX) was developed through simple covalent immobilization of GOX on a carbon electrode surface using zero-length cross-linkers. This glucose biosensor exhibited a high electron transfer rate (ks, 3.363 s−1) as well as good affinity (km, 0.03 mM) for GOX while keeping innate enzymatic activities. Furthermore, the DET-based glucose detection was accomplished by employing both square wave voltammetry and chronoamperometric techniques, and it achieved a glucose detection range from 5.4 mg/dL to 900 mg/dL, which is wider than most commercially available glucometers. This low-cost DET glucose biosensor showed remarkable selectivity, and the use of the negative operating potential avoided interference from other common electroactive compounds. It has great potential to monitor different stages of diabetes from hypoglycemic to hyperglycemic states, especially for self-monitoring of blood glucose. 
    more » « less