More Like this

1. Fixing a snag in carbon emissions estimates from wildfires

   https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14716  

   Stenzel, Jeffrey_E; Bartowitz, Kristina_J; Hartman, Melannie_D; Lutz, James_A; Kolden, Crystal_A; Smith, Alistair_M_S; Law, Beverly_E; Swanson, Mark_E; Larson, Andrew_J; Parton, William_J; et al (July 2019, Global Change Biology)

   Abstract Wildfire is an essential earth‐system process, impacting ecosystem processes and the carbon cycle. Forest fires are becoming more frequent and severe, yet gaps exist in the modeling of fire on vegetation and carbon dynamics. Strategies for reducing carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from wildfires include increasing tree harvest, largely based on the public assumption that fires burn live forests to the ground, despite observations indicating that less than 5% of mature tree biomass is actually consumed. This misconception is also reflected though excessive combustion of live trees in models. Here, we show that regional emissions estimates using widely implemented combustion coefficients are 59%–83% higher than emissions based on field observations. Using unique field datasets from before and after wildfires and an improved ecosystem model, we provide strong evidence that these large overestimates can be reduced by using realistic biomass combustion factors and by accurately quantifying biomass in standing dead trees that decompose over decades to centuries after fire (“snags”). Most model development focuses on area burned; our results reveal that accurately representing combustion is also essential for quantifying fire impacts on ecosystems. Using our improvements, we find that western US forest fires have emitted 851 ± 228 Tg CO₂(~half of alternative estimates) over the last 17 years, which is minor compared to 16,200 Tg CO₂from fossil fuels across the region. 

   more » « less
2. Projected near‐future flooding and warming increase graminoid biomass in a high‐latitude coastal wetland

   https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2745.14418  

   Petit Bon, Matteo; Leffler, A_Joshua; Kelsey, Katharine_C; Williams, Tyler_J; Beard, Karen_H (September 2024, Journal of Ecology)

   Abstract With rapid climate warming, some coastal high‐latitude ecosystems are experiencing more frequent tidal floods. Yet little is known about tundra plant‐community responses to flooding, and whether Arctic warming may modulate such responses.In a 2‐year, full‐factorial field experiment in coastal tundra wetlands of the Yukon‐Kuskokwim (Y‐K) Delta (western Alaska), we simulated periodic tidal flood events at two severities under both ambient and warmed summer conditions and measured above‐ground plant‐community responses. Low‐severity flooding represented overbank flooding 1 day per month, which is consistent with projections in the next 5 years. High‐severity flooding represented a more impactful flooding regime (three consecutive days per month) that is projected to occur in the next 10 years. Our warming treatment (+1°C) also represented a change projected in the next 10 years.Regardless of temperature, high‐severity flooding increased graminoid biomass by >45%, in turn increasing live plant‐community biomass by >18%. Low‐severity flooding had similar, though weaker, effects. Flooding had overall negative effects on both forb and shrub biomass, though shrub responses were weaker. Only during the second summer, warming increased graminoid biomass by 20% and tended to increase shrub biomass, regardless of flooding. Concurrently, warming enhanced standing‐dead graminoid biomass by 20%, while high‐severity flooding decreased it by 15%. Therefore, wet tundra that was both flooded and warmed had the greatest proportion of graminoids and total live biomass, but standing‐dead biomass comparable to that of unmanipulated wet tundra.Synthesis. While our manipulations simulated flooding and warming regimes expected in the wetlands of the Y‐K Delta over the same, near‐future (5‐to‐10 years) time frame, flooding had stronger effects than warming. What is striking is the rate at which graminoid increases occurred, becoming apparent after only two monthly flood events in the first experimental year. Flooding‐induced decreases in standing‐dead biomass suggests that the incorporation of dead plant material into the litter layer might be facilitated by tidal floods. These rapid increases in plant biomass and potentially biomass turnover, especially of graminoids, which are characterized by high‐quality litter, may have major implications for carbon and nutrient cycling of more frequently flooded coastal ecosystems in a warmer Arctic. 

   more » « less
3. An Improved Ensemble of Land Surface Air Temperatures Since 1880 Using Revised Pair-Wise Homogenization Algorithms Accounting for Autocorrelation

   https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0338.1  

   Chan, Duo; Gebbie, Geoffrey; Huybers, Peter (April 2024, Journal of Climate)

   Abstract Land surface air temperatures (LSAT) inferred from weather station data differ among major research groups. The estimate by NOAA’s monthly Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCNm) averages 0.02°C cooler between 1880 and 1940 than Berkeley Earth’s and 0.14°C cooler than the Climate Research Unit estimates. Such systematic offsets can arise from differences in how poorly documented changes in measurement characteristics are detected and adjusted. Building upon an existing pairwise homogenization algorithm used in generating the fourth version of NOAA’s GHCNm(V4), PHA₀, we propose two revisions to account for autocorrelation in climate variables. One version, PHA₁, makes minimal modification to PHA₀by extending the threshold used in breakpoint detection to be a function of LSAT autocorrelation. The other version, PHA₂, uses penalized likelihood to detect breakpoints through optimizing a model-selection problem globally. To facilitate efficient optimization for series with more than 1000 time steps, a multiparent genetic algorithm is proposed for PHA₂. Tests on synthetic data generated by adding breakpoints to CMIP6 simulations and realizations from a Gaussian process indicate that PHA₁and PHA₂both similarly outperform PHA₀in recovering accurate climatic trends. Applied to unhomogenized GHCNmV4, both revised algorithms detect breakpoints that correspond with available station metadata. Uncertainties are estimated by perturbing algorithmic parameters, and an ensemble is constructed by pooling 50 PHA₁- and 50 PHA₂-based members. The continental-mean warming in this new ensemble is consistent with that of Berkeley Earth, despite using different homogenization approaches. Relative to unhomogenized data, our homogenization increases the 1880–2022 trend by 0.16 [0.12, 0.19]°C century⁻¹(95% confidence interval), leading to continental-mean warming of 1.65 [1.62, 1.69]°C over 2010–22 relative to 1880–1900. Significance StatementAccurately correcting for systematic errors in observational records of land surface air temperature (LSAT) is critical for quantifying historical warming. Existing LSAT estimates are subject to systematic offsets associated with processes including changes in instrumentation and station movement. This study improves a pairwise homogenization algorithm by accounting for the fact that climate signals are correlated over time. The revised algorithms outperform the original in identifying discontinuities and recovering accurate warming trends. Applied to monthly station temperatures, the revised algorithms adjust trends in continental mean LSAT since the 1880s to be 0.16°C century⁻¹greater relative to raw data. Our estimate is most consistent with that from Berkeley Earth and indicates lesser and greater warming than estimates from NOAA and the Met Office, respectively. 

   more » « less
4. Costs of forest carbon sequestration in the presence of climate change impacts

   https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac8ec5  

   Golub, Alla; Sohngen, Brent; Cai, Yongyang; Kim, John; Hertel, Thomas (September 2022, Environmental Research Letters)

   Abstract Forests play a critical role in mitigating climate change, and, at the same time, are predicted to experience large-scale impacts of climate change that will affect the efficiency of forests in mitigation efforts. Projections of future carbon sequestration potential typically do not account for the changing economic costs of timber and agricultural production and land use change. We integrated a dynamic forward-looking economic optimization model of global land use with results from a dynamic global vegetation model and meta-analysis of climate impacts on crop yields to project future carbon sequestration in forests. We find that the direct impacts of climate change on forests, represented by changes in dieback and forest growth, and indirect effects due to lost crop productivity, together result in a net gain of 17 Gt C in aboveground forest carbon storage from 2000 to 2100. Increases in climate-driven forest growth rates will result in an 81%–99% reduction in costs of reaching a range of global forest carbon stock targets in 2100, while the increases in dieback rates are projected to raise the costs by 57%–132%. When combined, these two direct impacts are expected to reduce the global costs of climate change mitigation in forests by more than 70%. Inclusion of the third, indirect impact of climate change on forests through reduction in crop yields, and the resulting expansion of cropland, raises the costs by 11%–38% and widens the uncertainty range. While we cannot rule out the possibility of climate change increasing mitigation costs, the central outcomes of the simultaneous impacts of climate change on forests and agriculture are 64%–86% reductions in the mitigation costs. Overall, the results suggest that concerns about climate driven dieback in forests should not inhibit the ambitions of policy makers in expanding forest-based climate solutions. 

   more » « less
5. Restoration and resilience to sea level rise of a salt marsh affected by dieback events

   https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.4467  

   Rolando, J. L.; Hodges, M.; Garcia, K. D.; Krueger, G.; Williams, N.; Carr, Jr., J.; Robinson, J.; George, A.; Morris, J.; Kostka, J. E. (April 2023, Ecosphere)

   Abstract The frequency of salt marsh dieback events has increased over the last 25 years with unknown consequences to the resilience of the ecosystem to accelerated sea level rise (SLR). Salt marsh ecosystems impacted by sudden vegetation dieback events were previously thought to recover naturally within a few months to years. In this study, we used a 13‐year collection of remotely sensed imagery to provide evidence that approximately 14% of total marsh area has not revegetated 10 years after a dieback event in Charleston, SC. Dieback onset coincided with a severe drought in 2012, as indicated by the Palmer drought stress index. A second dieback event occurred in 2016 after a historic flood influenced by Hurricane Joaquin in 2015. Unvegetated zones reached nearly 30% of the total marsh area in 2017. We used a light detection and ranging‐derived digital elevation model to determine that most affected areas were associated with lower elevation zones in the interior of the marsh. Further, restoration by grass planting was effective, with pilot‐scale restored plots having greater aboveground biomass than reference sites after two years of transplanting. A positive outcome indicated that the stressors that caused the dieback are no longer present. Despite that, many affected areas have not recovered naturally, even though they are located within the typical elevation range of healthy marshes. A mechanistic modeling approach was used to assess the effects of vegetation dieback on salt marsh resilience to SLR. Predictions indicate that a highly productive restored marsh (2000 g m⁻² year⁻¹) would persist at a moderate SLR rate of 60 cm in 100 years, whereas a nonrestored mudflat would lose all its elevation capital after 100 years. Thus, rapid restoration of marsh dieback is critical to avoid further degradation. Also, failure to incorporate the increasing frequency and intensity of extreme climatic events that trigger irreversible marsh diebacks underestimates salt marsh vulnerability to climate change. Finally, at an elevated SLR rate of 122 cm in 100 years, which is most likely an extreme climate change scenario, even highly productive ecosystems augmented by sediment placement would not keep pace with SLR. Thus, climate change mitigation actions are also urgently needed to preserve present‐day marsh ecosystems. 

   more » « less