An official website of the United States government
Background Accurate simulation of wildfires can benefit pre-ignition mitigation and preparedness, and post-ignition emergency response management. Aims We evaluated the performance of Weather Research and Forecast-Fire (WRF-Fire), a coupled fire-atmosphere wildland fire simulation platform, in simulating a large historic fire (2018 Camp Fire). Methods A baseline model based on a setup typically used for WRF-Fire operational applications is utilised to simulate Camp Fire. Simulation results are compared to high-temporal-resolution fire perimeters derived from NEXRAD observations. The sensitivity of the model to a series of modelling parameters and assumptions governing the simulated wind field are then investigated. Results of WRF-Fire for Camp Fire are compared to FARSITE. Key results Baseline case shows non-negligible discrepancies between the simulated fire and the observations on rate of spread (ROS) and spread direction. Sensitivity analysis results show that refining the atmospheric grid of Camp Fire’s complex terrain improves fire prediction capabilities. Conclusions Sensitivity studies show the importance of refined atmosphere modelling for wildland fire simulation using WRF-Fire in complex terrains. Compared to FARSITE, WRF-Fire agrees better with the observations in terms of fire propagation rate and direction. Implications The findings suggest the need for further investigation of other possible sources of wildfire modelling uncertainties and errors.
more »
« less
Modeling the short-term fire effects on vegetation dynamics and surface energy in Southern Africa using the improved SSiB4/TRIFFID-Fire model
- Award ID(s):
- 1419526
- PAR ID:
- 10328914
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Geoscientific model development
- Volume:
- 14
- ISSN:
- 1991-9603
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 7639–7657
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
More Like this
-
-
Abstract The social, economic, and ecological impacts of wildfires are increasing over much of the United States and globally, partially due to changing climate and build-up of fuels from past forest management practices. This creates a need to improve coupled fire–atmosphere forecast models. However, model performance is difficult to evaluate due to scarcity of observations for many key fire–atmosphere interactions, including updrafts and plume injection height, plume entrainment processes, fire intensity and rate-of-spread, and plume chemistry. Intensive observations of such fire–atmosphere interactions during active wildfires are rare due to the logistical challenges and scales involved. The California Fire Dynamics Experiment (CalFiDE) was designed to address these observational needs, using Doppler lidar, high-resolution multispectral imaging, and in situ air quality instruments on a NOAA Twin Otter research aircraft, and Doppler lidars, radar, and other instrumentation on multiple ground-based mobile platforms. Five wildfires were studied across northern California and southern Oregon over 16 flight days from 28 August to 25 September 2022, including a breadth of fire stages from large blow-up days to smoldering air quality observations. Missions were designed to optimize the observation of the spatial structure and temporal evolution of each fire from early afternoon until sunset during multiple consecutive days. The coordination of the mobile platforms enabled four-dimensional sampling strategies during CalFiDE that will improve understanding of fire–atmosphere dynamics, aiding in model development and prediction capability. Satellite observations contributed aerosol measurements and regional context. This article summarizes the scientific objectives, platforms and instruments deployed, coordinated sampling strategies, and presents first results.more » « less
-
Intensifying wildfire activity and climate change can drive rapid forest compositional shifts. In boreal North America, black spruce shapes forest flammability and depends on fire for regeneration. This relationship has helped black spruce maintain its dominance through much of the Holocene. However, with climate change and more frequent and severe fires, shifts away from black spruce dominance to broadleaf or pine species are emerging, with implications for ecosystem functions including carbon sequestration, water and energy fluxes, and wildlife habitat. Here, we predict that such reductions in black spruce after fire may already be widespread given current trends in climate and fire. To test this, we synthesize data from 1,538 field sites across boreal North America to evaluate compositional changes in tree species following 58 recent fires (1989 to 2014). While black spruce was resilient following most fires (62%), loss of resilience was common, and spruce regeneration failed completely in 18% of 1,140 black spruce sites. In contrast, postfire regeneration never failed in forests dominated by jack pine, which also possesses an aerial seed bank, or broad-leaved trees. More complete combustion of the soil organic layer, which often occurs in better-drained landscape positions and in dryer duff, promoted compositional changes throughout boreal North America. Forests in western North America, however, were more vulnerable to change due to greater long-term climate moisture deficits. While we find considerable remaining resilience in black spruce forests, predicted increases in climate moisture deficits and fire activity will erode this resilience, pushing the system toward a tipping point that has not been crossed in several thousand years.more » « less
-
Di Luca, Marco (Ed.)Recently, tick-borne illnesses have been trending upward and are an increasing source of risk to people’s health in the United States. This is due to range expansion in tick habitats as a result of climate change. Thus, it is imperative to find a practical and cost-efficient way of managing tick populations. Prescribed burns are a common form of land management that can be cost-efficient if properly managed and can be applied across large amounts of land. In this study, we present a compartmental model for ticks carrying Lyme disease and uniquely incorporate the effects of prescribed fire using an impulsive system to investigate the effects of prescribed fire intensity (high and low) and the duration between burns. Our study found that fire intensity has a larger impact in reducing tick population than the frequency between burns. Furthermore, burning at high intensity is preferable to burning at low intensity whenever possible, although high-intensity burns may be unrealistic due to environmental factors. Annual burns resulted in the most significant reduction in infectious nymphs, which are the primary carriers of Lyme disease.more » « less
-
Background Existing fire spread models focus exclusively on wildland or urban fire simulation. Aims This study aims at an offline coupling of two fire spread models to enable a continuous simulation of a wildfire incident transitioning from wildland into wildland–urban interface (WUI) communities, evaluate the effects of wind input on simulation results and study the influence of building types on fire spread patterns. Methods The selected models are WRF-Fire, a wildland fire behaviour simulation platform, and SWUIFT, a model for fire spread inside the WUI. The 2021 Marshall Fire serves as the case study. A map of the fire’s timeline and location is generated using public information. Three simulation scenarios are analysed to study the effects of wind input resolution and building type on the predicted fire spread and damage. Key results The most accurate results are obtained using a high-resolution wind input and when incorporating different building types. Conclusions The offline coupling of models provides a reliable solution for fire spread simulation. Fire-resistant buildings likely helped limit community fire spread during the Marshall Fire. Implications The research is a first step toward developing simulation capabilities to predict the spread of wildfires within the wildland, WUI and urban environments.more » « less
- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
-
Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- The DOI is not currently available.
