More Like this

1. Governing the gaps in water governance and land-use planning in a megacity: The example of hydrological risk in Mexico City

   https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2018.06.009  

   Lerner, Amy M.; Eakin, Hallie C.; Tellman, Elizabeth; Bausch, Julia Chrissie; Hernández Aguilar, Bertha (January 2018, Cities)

   Megacities are socio-ecological systems (SES) that encompass complex interactions between residents, institutions, and natural resource management. These interactions are exacerbated by climate change as resources such as water become scarce or hazardous through drought and flooding. In order to develop pathways for improved sustainability, the disparate factors that create vulnerable conditions and outcomes must be visible to decision-makers. Nevertheless, for such decision-makers to manage vulnerability effectively, they need to define the salient boundaries of the urban SES, and the relevant biophysical, technological, and socio-institutional attributes that play critical roles in vulnerability dynamics. Here we explore the problem of hydrological risk in Mexico City, where vulnerabilities to flooding and water scarcity are interconnected temporally and spatially, yet the formal and informal institutions and actors involved in the production and management of vulnerability are divided into two discrete problem domains: land-use planning and water resource management. We analyze interviews with city officials working in both domains to understand their different perspectives on the dynamics of socio-hydrological risk, including flooding and water scarcity. We find governance gaps within land-use planning and water management that lead to hydro-social risk, stemming from a failure to address informal institutions that exacerbate vulnerability to flooding and water scarcity. Mandates in both sectors are overlapping and confusing, while socio-hydrological risk is externalized to the informal domain, making it ungoverned. Integrated water management approaches that recognize and incorporate informality are needed to reduce vulnerability to water scarcity and flooding. 

   more » « less
2. An assessment of potential climate impact during 1948–2010 using historical land use land cover change maps

   https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6621  

   Chilukoti, Nagaraju; Xue, Yongkang (May 2020, International Journal of Climatology)

   Abstract Earlier studies of land use land cover change (LULCC) normally used only a specified LULCC map with no interannual variations. In this study, using an Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) coupled with a land surface model, biophysical impacts of LULCC on global and regional climate are investigated by using a LULCC map which covers 63 years from 1948 to 2010 with interannual variation. A methodology has been developed to convert a recently developed LULCC fraction map with 1° × 1° resolution to the AGCM grid points in which only one dominant type is allowed. Comprehensive evaluations are conducted to ensure consistency of the trend of the original LULCC fraction change and the trend of the fraction of grid point changes over different regions. The model was integrated with a potential vegetation map (CTL) and the map with LULCC, in which a set of surface parameters such as leaf area index, albedo and other soil and vegetation parameters were accordingly changed with interannual variation. The results indicate that the interannual LULCC map simulation is able to reproduce better interannual variability of surface temperature and rainfall when compared to the control simulation. LULCC causes negative effect on global precipitation, with the strongest significant signals over degraded regions such as East Asia, West Africa and South America, and some of these changes are consistent with observed regional anomalies for certain time periods. LULCC causes reduction in net radiation and evapotranspiration which leads to changes in monsoon circulation and variation in magnitude and pattern of moisture flux convergence and subsequent reduction in precipitation. Meanwhile, LULCC enhances surface warming during the summer in the LULCC regions due to greatly reduced evapotranspiration. In contradiction to the surface, upper troposphere temperatures are cool because of less latent heat released into the upper troposphere, which leads to weaker circulation in LULCC regions. 

   more » « less
3. Agent-Based Complex Systems Science in the Era of Global Sustainability Crisis

   https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202309.1571.v1  

   An, Li; Turner_II, B L; Liu, Jianguo; Grimm, Volker; Zhang, Qi; Wang, Zhangyang; Huang, Ruihong (September 2023, www.preprints.org)

   A significant number and range of challenges besetting sustainability can be traced to the actions and interactions of multiple autonomous agents (people mostly) and the entities they create (e.g., institutions, policies, social network) in the corresponding social-environmental systems (SES). To address these challenges, we need to understand decisions made and actions taken by agents, the outcomes of their actions, including the feedbacks on the corresponding agents and environment. The science of Agent-based Complex Systems—ACS science—has a significant potential to handle such challenges. The advantages of ACS science for sustainability are addressed by way of identifying the key elements and challenges in sustainability science, the generic features of ACS, and the key advances and challenges in modeling ACS. Artificial intelligence and data science promise to improve understanding of agents’ behaviors, detect SES structures, and formulate SES mechanisms. 

   more » « less
4. Complex adaptive systems science in the era of global sustainability crisis

   https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geosus.2024.09.011  

   An, Li; Turner, BL; Liu, Jianguo; Grimm, Volker; Zhang, Qi; Wang, Zhangyang; Huang, Ruihong (November 2024, Geography and Sustainability)

   A significant number and range of challenges besetting sustainability can be traced to the actions and interactions of multiple autonomous agents (people mostly) and the entities they create (e.g., institutions, policies, social network) in the corresponding social-environmental systems (SES). To address these challenges, we need to understand decisions made and actions taken by agents, the outcomes of their actions, including the feedbacks on the corresponding agents and environment. The science of complex adaptive systems—CAS science—has a significant potential to handle such challenges. We address the advantages of CAS science for sustainability by identifying the key elements and challenges in sustainability science, the generic features of CAS, and the key advances and challenges in modeling CAS. Artificial intelligence and data science combined with agent-based modeling promise to improve understanding of agents’ behaviors, detect SES structures, and formulate SES mechanisms. 

   more » « less
5. Integrated Policy Solutions for Water Scarcity in Agricultural Communities of the American Southwest

   https://doi.org/10.3390/systems9020026  

   Langarudi, Saeed P.; Maxwell, Connie M.; Fernald, Alexander G. (June 2021, Systems)

   null (Ed.)

   The conventional approach of policy interventions in water management that focus on the portions of the system that directly relate to water often lead to unintended consequences that potentially exacerbate water scarcity issues and present challenges to the future viability of many rural agricultural communities. This paper deploys a system dynamics model to illustrate how expanding the policy space of hydrology models to include socioeconomic feedbacks could address these challenges. In this regard, policies that can potentially mitigate general water scarcity in a region of the American Southwest in southern New Mexico are examined. We selected and tested policies with the potential to diminish water scarcity without compromising the system’s economic performance. These policies included supporting choices that reduce or limit the expansion of water-intensive crops, promoting workforce participation, encouraging investment in capital, and regulating land use change processes. The simulation results, after the proposed boundary expansion, unveiled intervention options not commonly exercised by water decision-makers, bolstering the argument that integrated approaches to water research that include socioeconomic feedbacks are crucial for the study of agricultural community resilience. 

   more » « less