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In the rivers of the central part of the East European Plain (the Volga at Staritsa, the Oka at Kaluga, and the Don at Stanitsa Kazanskaya), long phases (10–15 years or more) of increased/decreased annual and seasonal runoff have occurred, as well as differences in the frequencies of extremely low flow conditions from the late 19th century to 2020. Phase boundaries were identified by cumulative deviation curves and statistical homogeneity. The frequencies of specific water flow values were estimated using the empirical curves of the exceedance probability of annual and seasonal water flows based on their long-term time series. In the century-long changes of rivers considered, two long contrasting phases were revealed. These phases are characterized by increased and decreased runoff of hydrological seasons. Near simultaneously, a phase of increased runoff was first observed for the freshet season. On the contrary, phases of decreased runoff were first observed for low-water seasons. The runoff phases differ significantly in duration and differences in flow. Significant differences were revealed in the frequency of low-water years for a low runoff with an exceedance probability above or equal to 75% and above or equal to 95%. 

Abstract Climate change has adverse impacts on Arctic natural ecosystems and threatens northern communities by disrupting subsistence practices, limiting accessibility, and putting built infrastructure at risk. In this paper, we analyze spatial patterns of permafrost degradation and associated risks to built infrastructure due to loss of bearing capacity and thaw subsidence in permafrost regions of the Arctic. Using a subset of three Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 models under SSP245 and 585 scenarios we estimated changes in permafrost bearing capacity and ground subsidence between two reference decades: 2015–2024 and 2055–2064. Using publicly available infrastructure databases we identified roads, railways, airport runways, and buildings at risk of permafrost degradation and estimated country-specific costs associated with damage to infrastructure. The results show that under the SSP245 scenario 29% of roads, 23% of railroads, and 11% of buildings will be affected by permafrost degradation, costing $182 billion to the Arctic states by mid-century. Under the SSP585 scenario, 44% of roads, 34% of railroads, and 17% of buildings will be affected with estimated cost of $276 billion, with airport runways adding an additional $0.5 billion. Russia is expected to have the highest burden of costs, ranging from $115 to $169 billion depending on the scenario. Limiting global greenhouse gas emissions has the potential to significantly decrease the costs of projected damages in Arctic countries, especially in Russia. The approach presented in this study underscores the substantial impacts of climate change on infrastructure and can assist to develop adaptation and mitigation strategies in Arctic states. 

Climate change is destabilizing permafrost landscapes, affecting infrastructure, ecosystems, and human livelihoods. The rate of permafrost thaw is controlled by surface and subsurface properties and processes, all of which are potentially linked with each other. However, no standardized protocol exists for measuring permafrost thaw and related processes and properties in a linked manner. The permafrost thaw action group of the Terrestrial Multidisciplinary distributed Observatories for the Study of the Arctic Connections (T-MOSAiC) project has developed a protocol, for use by non-specialist scientists and technicians, citizen scientists, and indigenous groups, to collect standardized metadata and data on permafrost thaw. The protocol introduced here addresses the need to jointly measure permafrost thaw and the associated surface and subsurface environmental conditions. The parameters measured along transects include: snow depth, thaw depth, vegetation height, soil texture, and water level. The metadata collection includes data on timing of data collection, geographical coordinates, land surface characteristics (vegetation, ground surface, water conditions), as well as photographs. Our hope is that this openly available dataset will also be highly valuable for validation and parameterization of numerical and conceptual models, and thus to the broad community represented by the T-MOSAiC project. 

Abstract This paper synthesizes the contemporary challenges for the sustainability of the social-environmental system (SES) across a geographically, environmentally, and geopolitically diverse region—the Asian Drylands Belt (ADB). This region includes 18 political entities, covering 10.3% of global land area and 30% of total global drylands. At the present time, the ADB is confronted with a unique set of environmental and socioeconomic changes including water shortage-related environmental challenges and dramatic institutional changes since the collapse of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics. The SES of the ADB is assessed using a conceptual framework rooted in the three pillars of sustainability science: social, economic, and ecological systems. The complex dynamics are explored with biophysical, socioeconomic, institutional, and local context-dependent mechanisms with a focus on institutions and land use and land cover change (LULCC) as important drivers of SES dynamics. This paper also discusses the following five pressing, practical challenges for the sustainability of the ADB SES: (a) reduced water quantity and quality under warming, drying, and escalating extreme events, (b) continued, if not intensifying, geopolitical conflicts, (c) volatile, uncertain, and shifting socioeconomic structures, (d) globalization and cross-country influences, and (e) intensification and shifts in LULCC. To meet the varied challenges across the region, place-based, context-dependent transdisciplinary approaches are needed to focus on the human-environment interactions within and between regional landscapes with explicit consideration of specific forcings and regulatory mechanisms. Future work focused on this region should also assess the role of the following mechanisms that may moderate SES dynamics: socioeconomic regulating mechanisms, biophysical regulating mechanisms, regional and national institutional regulating mechanisms, and localized institutional regulating mechanisms. 

Russian permafrost regions are unparalleled in extent, history of development, population presence, and the scale of economic activities. This special issue, «Permafrost Regions in Transition», provides a timely opportunity to (a) examine major issues associated with changing permafrost conditions in natural environments and areas of economic development; (b) present insights into new methods of permafrost investigations; and (c) describe new opportunities and risks threatening sustainable development of Arctic populations and industrial centers in Russia. The issue begins with papers focused on methods of permafrost research, followed by papers focused on examining changes in permafrost under natural conditions, and in Arctic settlements. The last two papers examine potential impacts of permafrost degradation on the Russian economy and potential health implications.