Afforestation and reforestation (AR) on marginal land are nature-based solutions to climate change. There is a gap in understanding the climate mitigation potential of protection and commercial AR with different combinations of forest plantation management and wood utilization pathways. Here, we fill the gap using a dynamic, multiscale life cycle assessment to estimate one-century greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation delivered by (both traditional and innovative) commercial and protection AR with different planting density and thinning regimes on marginal land in the southeastern United States. We found that innovative commercial AR generally mitigates more GHGs across 100 y (3.73 to 4.15 Giga tonnes of CO 2 equivalent (Gt CO 2 e)) through cross-laminated timber (CLT) and biochar than protection AR (3.35 to 3.69 Gt CO 2 e) and commercial AR with traditional lumber production (3.17 to 3.51 Gt CO 2 e), especially in moderately cooler and dryer regions in this study with higher forest carbon yield, soil clay content, and CLT substitution. In a shorter timeframe (≤50 y), protection AR is likely to deliver higher GHG mitigation. On average, for the same wood product, low-density plantations without thinning and high-density plantations with thinning mitigate more life cycle GHGs and result in higher carbon stock than that of low-density with thinning plantations. Commercial AR increases the carbon stock of standing plantations, wood products, and biochar, but the increases have uneven spatial distributions. Georgia (0.38 Gt C), Alabama (0.28 Gt C), and North Carolina (0.13 Gt C) have the largest carbon stock increases that can be prioritized for innovative commercial AR projects on marginal land.
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Data from: Land-based climate solutions for the United States
Meeting end-of-century global warming targets requires aggressive action on multiple fronts. Recent reports note the futility of addressing mitigation goals without fully engaging the agricultural sector, yet no available assessments combine both nature-based solutions (reforestation, grassland and wetland protection, and agricultural practice change) and cellulosic bioenergy for a single geographic region. Collectively, these solutions might offer a suite of climate, biodiversity, and other benefits greater than either alone. Nature-based solutions are largely constrained by the duration of carbon accrual in soils and forest biomass; each of these carbon pools will eventually saturate. Bioenergy solutions can last indefinitely but carry significant environmental risk if carelessly deployed. We detail a simplified scenario for the U.S. that illustrates the benefits of combining approaches. We assign a portion of non-forested former cropland to bioenergy sufficient to meet projected mid-century transportation needs, with the remainder assigned to nature-based solutions such as reforestation. Bottom-up mitigation potentials for the aggregate contributions of crop, grazing, forest, and bioenergy lands are assessed by including in a Monte Carlo model conservative ranges for cost-effective local mitigation capacities, together with ranges for (a) areal extents that avoid double counting and include realistic adoption rates and (b) the projected duration of different carbon sinks. The projected duration illustrates the net effect of eventually saturating soil carbon pools in the case of most strategies, and additionally saturating biomass carbon pools in the case of reforestation. Results show a conservative end-of-century mitigation capacity of 110 (57 – 178) Gt CO2e for the U.S., ~50% higher than existing estimates that prioritize nature-based or bioenergy solutions separately. Further research is needed to shrink uncertainties but there is sufficient confidence in the general magnitude and direction of a combined approach to plan for deployment now. The dataset is a synthesis of literature values selected based on criteria described in the parent paper’s narrative. The files can be opened in Microsoft Excel or any other spreadsheet that can load Excel-format files.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1832042
- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10331585
- Publisher / Repository:
- Dryad
- Date Published:
- Edition / Version:
- 2
- Subject(s) / Keyword(s):
- ["Nature Based Solutions","Bioenergy","Cellulosic bioenerg","soil carbon","croplands","grazing land","forest land","Forest management","Agriculture practices","climate change mitigation","carbon cycle modeling","negative CO2 emissions","reforestation","carbon dioxide","nitrous oxide (N2O)","carbon capture and sequestration","BECCS","CCS","electric vehicles","FOS: Agricultural sciences"]
- Format(s):
- Medium: X Size: 129435298 bytes
- Size(s):
- ["129435298 bytes"]
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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