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Bird migration has fascinated natural historians and scientists for centuries. While the timing of migration is known to vary by species, population, sex, and individual, identifying the cause of this variation can be challenging. Here we investigate factors underlying migratory timing in a long- distance migratory bird, the Common Yellowthroat (Geothlypas trichas), using a population genomic approach. We begin by creating a map of genetic variation across geographic space (a “genoscape”) using lcWGS from across the breeding range. We then utilize genetic assays to assign 249 wintering and 1050 northward migrating birds to genetically distinct breeding populations. Additionally, we estimate the expected spring onset date in each predicted breeding region and calculate the remaining migratory distance for northward migrating birds. Our findings indicate that when population genetic structure is not a factor in the analysis, it appears that birds captured early in the season are migrating to breeding grounds where spring arrives later, which contrasts with prior research. However, when we incorporate population structure into our analysis, our results align with predictions, indicating that birds captured earlier in the season are indeed heading to breeding grounds where spring arrives earlier. Further analysis revealed that the disparity between results obtained with and without population genetic structure can be attributed to the fact that individuals from the western genetic group migrate three times the distance to the west, despite breeding at the same latitude. Our findings suggest that categorizing large numbers of migrating birds into genetically distinct groups can reveal population-specific patterns in migratory timing and shed light on the relative contributions of different selective forces responsible for the observed patterns.
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The future distribution of wetland birds breeding in Europe validated against observed changes in distribution
Abstract Wetland bird species have been declining in population size worldwide as climate warming and land-use change affect their suitable habitats. We used species distribution models (SDMs) to predict changes in range dynamics for 64 non-passerine wetland birds breeding in Europe, including range size, position of centroid, and margins. We fitted the SDMs with data collected for the first European Breeding Bird Atlas and climate and land-use data to predict distributional changes over a century (the 1970s–2070s). The predicted annual changes were then compared to observed annual changes in range size and range centroid over a time period of 30 years using data from the second European Breeding Bird Atlas. Our models successfully predicted ca. 75% of the 64 bird species to contract their breeding range in the future, while the remaining species (mostly southerly breeding species) were predicted to expand their breeding ranges northward. The northern margins of southerly species and southern margins of northerly species, both, predicted to shift northward. Predicted changes in range size and shifts in range centroids were broadly positively associated with the observed changes, although some species deviated markedly from the predictions. The predicted average shift in core distributions was ca. 5 km yr −1 towards the north (5% northeast, 45% north, and 40% northwest), compared to a slower observed average shift of ca. 3.9 km yr −1 . Predicted changes in range centroids were generally larger than observed changes, which suggests that bird distribution changes may lag behind environmental changes leading to ‘climate debt’. We suggest that predictions of SDMs should be viewed as qualitative rather than quantitative outcomes, indicating that care should be taken concerning single species. Still, our results highlight the urgent need for management actions such as wetland creation and restoration to improve wetland birds’ resilience to the expected environmental changes in the future.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1927646
- PAR ID:
- 10331795
- Author(s) / Creator(s):
- ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; more »
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Environmental Research Letters
- Volume:
- 17
- Issue:
- 2
- ISSN:
- 1748-9326
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 024025
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac4ebe
