- Award ID(s):
- 1753249
- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10332941
- Author(s) / Creator(s):
- ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; more »
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Nature Communications
- Volume:
- 13
- Issue:
- 1
- ISSN:
- 2041-1723
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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Abstract Since its global emergence in 2020, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has caused multiple epidemics in the United States. When medical treatments for the virus were still emerging and a vaccine was not yet available, state and local governments sought to limit its spread by enacting various social-distancing interventions, such as school closures and lockdowns; however, the effectiveness of these interventions was unknown. We applied an established, semimechanistic Bayesian hierarchical model of these interventions to the spread of SARS-CoV-2 from Europe to the United States, using case fatalities from February 29, 2020, up to April 25, 2020, when some states began reversing their interventions. We estimated the effects of interventions across all states, contrasted the estimated reproduction numbers before and after lockdown for each state, and contrasted the predicted number of future fatalities with the actual number of fatalities as a check of the model’s validity. Overall, school closures and lockdowns were the only interventions modeled that had a reliable impact on the time-varying reproduction number, and lockdown appears to have played a key role in reducing that number to below 1.0. We conclude that reversal of lockdown without implementation of additional, equally effective interventions will enable continued, sustained transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in the United States.more » « less
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null (Ed.)Background Health care personnel (HCP) are at high risk for exposure to the SARS-CoV-2 virus. While personal protective equipment (PPE) may mitigate this risk, prospective data collection on its use and other risk factors for seroconversion in this population is needed. Objective The primary objectives of this study are to (1) determine the incidence of, and risk factors for, SARS-CoV-2 infection among HCP at a tertiary care medical center and (2) actively monitor PPE use, interactions between study participants via electronic sensors, secondary cases in households, and participant mental health and well-being. Methods To achieve these objectives, we designed a prospective, observational study of SARS-CoV-2 infection among HCP and their household contacts at an academic tertiary care medical center in North Carolina, USA. Enrolled HCP completed frequent surveys on symptoms and work activities and provided serum and nasal samples for SARS-CoV-2 testing every 2 weeks. Additionally, interactions between participants and their movement within the clinical environment were captured with a smartphone app and Bluetooth sensors. Finally, a subset of participants’ households was randomly selected every 2 weeks for further investigation, and enrolled households provided serum and nasal samples via at-home collection kits. Results As of December 31, 2020, 211 HCP and 53 household participants have been enrolled. Recruitment and follow-up are ongoing and expected to continue through September 2021. Conclusions Much remains to be learned regarding the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection among HCP and their household contacts. Through the use of a multifaceted prospective study design and a well-characterized cohort, we will collect critical information regarding SARS-CoV-2 transmission risks in the health care setting and its linkage to the community. International Registered Report Identifier (IRRID) DERR1-10.2196/25410more » « less
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Abstract The emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS‐CoV‐2) variants of concern (VOC) has raised questions regarding vaccine protection against SARS‐CoV‐2 infection, transmission, and ongoing virus evolution. Twenty‐three mildly symptomatic “vaccination breakthrough” infections were identified as early as January 2021 in Alachua County, Florida, among individuals fully vaccinated with either the BNT162b2 (Pfizer) or the Ad26 (Janssen/J&J) vaccines. SARS‐CoV‐2 genomes were successfully generated for 11 of the vaccine breakthroughs, and 878 individuals in the surrounding area and were included for reference‐based phylogenetic investigation. These 11 individuals were characterized by infection with VOCs, but also low‐frequency variants present within the surrounding population. Low‐frequency mutations were observed, which have been more recently identified as mutations of interest owing to their location within targeted immune epitopes (P812L) and association with increased replicative capacity (L18F). We present these results to posit the nature of the efficacy of vaccines in reducing symptoms as both a blessing and a curse—as vaccination becomes more widespread and self‐motivated testing reduced owing to the absence of severe symptoms, we face the challenge of early recognition of novel mutations of potential concern. This case study highlights the critical need for continued testing and monitoring of infection and transmission among individuals regardless of vaccination status.
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