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1. Predation risk drives long‐term shifts in migratory behaviour and demography in a large herbivore population

   https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2656.14022  

   Williams, S. ; Hebblewhite, M. ; Martin, H. ; Meyer, C. ; Whittington, J. ; Killeen, J. ; Berg, J. ; MacAulay, K. ; Smolko, P. ; Merrill, E. H. ( November 2023 , Journal of Animal Ecology)

   Migration is an adaptive life‐history strategy across taxa that helps individuals maximise fitness by obtaining forage and avoiding predation risk. The mechanisms driving migratory changes are poorly understood, and links between migratory behaviour, space use, and demographic consequences are rare.

   Here, we use a nearly 20‐year record of individual‐based monitoring of a large herbivore, elk (Cervus canadensis) to test hypotheses for changing patterns of migration in and adjacent to a large protected area in Banff National Park (BNP), Canada.

   We test whether bottom‐up (forage quality) or top‐down (predation risk) factors explained trends in (i) the proportion of individuals using 5 different migratory tactics, (ii) differences in survival rates of migratory tactics during migration and whilst on summer ranges, (iii) cause‐specific mortality by wolves and grizzly bears, and (iv) population abundance.

   We found dramatic shifts in migration consistent with behavioural plasticity in individual choice of annual migratory routes. Shifts were inconsistent with exposure to the bottom‐up benefits of migration. Instead, exposure to landscape gradients in predation risk caused by exploitation outside the protected area drove migratory shifts. Carnivore exploitation outside the protected area led to higher survival rates for female elk remaining resident or migrating outside the protected area.

   Cause‐specific mortality aligned with exposure to predation risk along migratory routes and summer ranges. Wolf predation risk was higher on migratory routes than summer ranges of montane‐migrant tactics, but wolf predation risk traded‐off with heightened risk from grizzly bears on summer ranges. A novel eastern migrant tactic emerged following a large forest fire that enhanced forage in an area with lower predation risk outside of the protected area.

   The changes in migratory behaviour translated to population abundance, where abundance of the montane‐migratory tactics declined over time. The presence of diverse migratory life histories maintained a higher total population abundance than would have been the case with only one migratory tactic in the population.

   Our study demonstrates the complex ways in which migratory populations change over time through behavioural plasticity and associated demographic consequences because of individuals balancing predation risk and forage trade‐offs.

    

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2. Genomic architecture of migration timing in a long-distance migratory songbird

   https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-29470-7  

   de Greef, Evelien ; Suh, Alexander ; Thorstensen, Matt J. ; Delmore, Kira E. ; Fraser, Kevin C. ( October 2023 , Scientific Reports)

   The impact of climate change on spring phenology poses risks to migratory birds, as migration timing is controlled predominantly by endogenous mechanisms. Despite recent advances in our understanding of the underlying genetic basis of migration timing, the ways that migration timing phenotypes in wild individuals may map to specific genomic regions requires further investigation. We examined the genetic architecture of migration timing in a long-distance migratory songbird (purple martin,Progne subis subis) by integrating genomic data with an extensive dataset of direct migratory tracks. A moderate to large amount of variance in spring migration arrival timing was explained by genomics (proportion of phenotypic variation explained by genomics = 0.74; polygenic scoreR² = 0.24). On chromosome 1, a region that was differentiated between migration timing phenotypes contained genes that could facilitate nocturnal flights and act as epigenetic modifiers. Overall, these results advance our understanding of the genomic underpinnings of migration timing.

    

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3. Individual‐based models of avian migration for estimating behavioural traits and predicting ecological interactions

   https://doi.org/10.1111/2041-210X.14189  

   Tonelli, Benjamin A. ; Zelin, Alan E. ; Dearborn, Donald C. ; Tingley, Morgan W. ( July 2023 , Methods in Ecology and Evolution)

   Rapid advances in the field of movement ecology have led to increasing insight into both the population‐level abundance patterns and individual‐level behaviour of migratory species. Despite this progress, research questions that require scaling individual‐level understanding of the behaviour of migrating organisms to the population level remain difficult to investigate.

   To bridge this gap, we introduce a generalizable framework for training full‐annual cycle individual‐based models of migratory movements by combining information from tracking studies and species occurrence records. Focusing on migratory birds, we call this method: Models of Individual Movement of Avian Species (MIMAS). We implement MIMAS to design individual‐based models of avian migration that are trained using previously published weekly occurrence maps and fit via Approximate Bayesian Computation.

   MIMAS models leverage individual‐ and population‐level information to faithfully represent continental‐scale migration patterns. Models can be trained successfully for species even when little existing individual‐level data is available for parameterization by relying on population‐level information. In contrast to existing mathematical models of migration, MIMAS explicitly represents and estimates behavioural attributes of migrants. MIMAS can additionally be used to simulate movement over consecutive migration seasons, and models can be easily updated or validated as new empirical data on migratory behaviours becomes available.

   MIMAS can be applied to a variety of research questions that require representing individual movement at large scales. We demonstrate three applied uses for MIMAS: estimating population‐specific migratory phenology, predicting the spatial patterns and magnitude of ectoparasite dispersal by migrants, and simulating the spread of a pathogen across the annual cycle of a migrant species. Currently, MIMAS can easily be used to build models for hundreds of migratory landbird species but can also be adapted in the future to build models of other types of migratory animals.

    

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4. Population genetics of a recent range expansion and subsequent loss of migration in monarch butterflies

   https://doi.org/10.1111/mec.16592  

   Hemstrom, William B. ; Freedman, Micah G. ; Zalucki, Myron P. ; Ramírez, Santiago R. ; Miller, Michael R. ( July 2022 , Molecular Ecology)

   Range expansions—whether permanent or transient—strongly influence the distribution of genetic variation in space. Monarch butterflies are best known for long‐distance seasonal migration within North America but are also established as nonmigratory populations around the world, including on Pacific Islands. Previous research has highlighted stepwise expansion across the Pacific, though questions remain about expansion timing and the population genetic consequences of migration loss. Here, we present reduced‐representation sequencing data for 275 monarchs from North America (n = 85), 12 Pacific Islands (n = 136) and three locations in Australia (n = 54), with the goal of understanding (i) how the monarch's Pacific expansion has shaped patterns of population genetic variation and (ii) how loss of migration has influenced spatial patterns of differentiation. We find support for previously described stepwise dispersal across the Pacific and document an additional expansion from Hawaii into the Mariana Islands. Nonmigratory monarchs within the Mariana Islands show strong patterns of differentiation, despite their proximity; by contrast, migratory North American samples form a single genetically panmictic population across the continent. Estimates of Pacific establishment timing are highly uncertain (~100–1,000,000 years ago) but overlap with historical records that indicate a recent expansion. Our data support (i) a recent expansion across the Pacific whose timing overlaps with available historical records of establishment and (ii) a strong role for seasonal migration in determining patterns of spatial genetic variation. Our results are noteworthy because they demonstrate how the evolution of partial migration can drive population differentiation over contemporary timescales.

    

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5. Flexibility in the face of climate change? A rapid and dramatic shift toward later spring migration in Hudsonian Godwits ( Limosa haemastica )

   https://doi.org/10.1101/2024.04.30.591937  

   Puleo, Lauren ; Huang, Feipeng ; Stager, Maria ; Senner, Nathan R ( May 2024 , bioRxiv)

   With rapid environmental change, shifts in migration timing are vitally important for maintaining population stability and have been widely documented. However, little remains known abouthowmigrants are driving these shifts and what factors may influence the effective utilization of these strategies, limiting our ability to accurately assess species- and population-level vulnerability to climate change. The Hudsonian godwit (Limosa haemastica) is an extreme long-distance migratory shorebird that has (1) previously shifted its population-level migration timing and (2) exhibits sex-specific morphological differences. Therefore, we combined over a decade of light-level geolocator tracking data from a single breeding population with a historical predictive model to assess on-going shifts in migration timing while determining the time-shifting strategies utilized by each sex. Surprisingly, we found that godwit departure and arrival timing rapidly shifted 6 days later from 2010-2023 with no differences in timing between the sexes. Despite this change in migration timing, the population has maintained an average migratory duration of 24 days, suggesting that godwits are driving shifts in arrival timing entirely by shifting their nonbreeding ground departure, something rarely documented in long-distance migrants. Yet, we also found that godwits are not shifting their migration timing in the direction predicted by our model, providing evidence that this response may not be adaptive. These results emphasize the urgent need for a more holistic approach to assessing the relative vulnerability of migratory species and the adaptiveness of changes in migration timing.

    

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