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1. The Time-Dependent Response of a Two-Basin Ocean to a Sudden Surface Temperature Change

   https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0821.1  

   Chang, Chiung-Yin ; Jansen, Malte F. ( July 2022 , Journal of Climate)

   Abstract Building on previous work using single-basin models, we here explore the time-dependent response of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) to a sudden global temperature change in a two-basin ocean–ice model. We find that the previously identified mechanisms remain qualitatively useful to explain the transient and the long-term time-mean responses of the AMOC in our simulations. Specifically, we find an initial weakening of the AMOC in response to warming (and vice versa for cooling), controlled by the mid-depth meridional temperature contrast across the Atlantic basin. The long-term mean response instead is controlled primarily by changes in the abyssal stratification within the basin. In contrast to previous studies we find that for small-amplitude surface temperature changes, the equilibrium AMOC is almost unchanged, as the abyssal stratification remains similar due to a substantial compensation between the effects of salinity and temperature changes. The temperature-driven stratification change results from the differential warming/cooling between North Atlantic Deep Water and Antarctic Bottom Water, while the salinity change is driven by changes in Antarctic sea ice formation. Another distinct feature of our simulations is the emergence of AMOC variability in the much colder and much warmer climates. We discuss how this variability is related tomore »variations in deep-ocean heat content, surface salinity, and sea ice in the deep convective regions, both in the North Atlantic and in the Southern Ocean, and its potential relevance to past and future climates.« less
2. How do intermittency and simultaneous processes obfuscate the Arctic influence on midlatitude winter extreme weather events?

   https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abdb5d  

   Overland, J. E. ( March 2021 , Environmental research letters)

   Pronounced changes in the Arctic environment add a new potential driver of anomalous weather patterns in midlatitudes that affect billions of people. Recent studies of these Arctic/midlatitude weather linkages, however, state inconsistent conclusions. A source of uncertainty arises from the chaotic nature of the atmosphere. Thermodynamic forcing by a rapidly warming Arctic contributes to weather events through changing surface heat fluxes and large-scale temperature and pressure gradients. But internal shifts in atmospheric dynamics—the variability of the location, strength, and character of the jet stream, blocking, and stratospheric polar vortex (SPV)—obscure the direct causes and effects. It is important to understand these associated processes to differentiate Arctic-forced variability from natural variability. For example in early winter, reduced Barents/Kara Seas sea-ice coverage may reinforce existing atmospheric teleconnections between the North Atlantic/Arctic and central Asia, and affect downstream weather in East Asia. Reduced sea ice in the Chukchi Sea can amplify atmospheric ridging of high pressure near Alaska, influencing downstream weather across North America. In late winter southward displacement of the SPV, coupled to the troposphere, leads to weather extremes in Eurasia and North America. Combined tropical and sea ice conditions can modulate the variability of the SPV. Observational evidence for Arctic/midlatitude weathermore »linkages continues to accumulate, along with understanding of connections with pre-existing climate states. Relative to natural atmospheric variability, sea-ice loss alone has played a secondary role in Arctic/midlatitude weather linkages; the full influence of Arctic amplification remains uncertain.« less
3. Nordic Seas Hydrography in the Context of Arctic and North Atlantic Ocean Dynamics

   https://doi.org/10.1175/JPO-D-20-0071.1  

   Kenigson, J. S. ; Timmermans, M.-L. ( January 2021 , Journal of Physical Oceanography)

   Abstract The hydrography of the Nordic seas, a critical site for deep convective mixing, is controlled by various processes. On one hand, Arctic Ocean exports are thought to freshen the North Atlantic Ocean and the Nordic seas, as in the Great Salinity Anomalies (GSAs) of the 1970s–1990s. On the other hand, the salinity of the Nordic seas covaries with that of the Atlantic inflow across the Greenland–Scotland Ridge, leaving an uncertain role for Arctic Ocean exports. In this study, multidecadal time series (1950–2018) of the Nordic seas hydrography, Subarctic Front (SAF) in the North Atlantic Ocean [separating the water masses of the relatively cool, fresh Subpolar Gyre (SPG) from the warm, saline Subtropical Gyre (STG)], and atmospheric forcing are examined and suggest a unified view. The Nordic seas freshwater content is shown to covary on decadal time scales with the position of the SAF. When the SPG is strong, the SAF shifts eastward of its mean position, increasing the contribution of subpolar relative to subtropical source water to the Atlantic inflow, and vice versa. This suggests that Arctic Ocean fluxes primarily influence the hydrography of the Nordic seas via indirect means (i.e., by freshening the SPG). Case studies of twomore »years with anomalous NAO conditions illustrate how North Atlantic Ocean dynamics relate to the position of the SAF (as indicated by hydrographic properties and stratification changes in the upper water column), and therefore to the properties of the Atlantic inflow and Nordic seas.« less
4. Expedition 382 Scientific Prospectus: Iceberg Alley and South Falkland Slope Ice and Ocean Dynamics

   https://doi.org/10.14379/iodp.sp.382.2018  

   Weber, M.E. ; Raymo, M.E. ; Peck, V.L. ; Williams, T. ( May 2018 , Scientific prospectus)

   International Ocean Discovery Program Expedition 382, Iceberg Alley and South Falkland Slope Ice and Ocean Dynamics, will investigate the long-term climate history of Antarctica, seeking to understand how polar ice sheets responded to changes in atmospheric CO2 in the past and how ice sheet evolution influenced global sea level. We will drill six sites in the Scotia Sea, east of the Antarctic Peninsula, providing the first deep drilling in this region of the Southern Ocean. We expect to recover >600 m of late Neogene sediment that will be used to reconstruct the past history and variability in Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) mass loss and associated changes in oceanic and atmospheric circulation. Expedition 382 expects to deliver the first spatially and temporally integrated record of iceberg flux from “Iceberg Alley,” the main pathway by which icebergs are calved from the margin of the AIS and travel equatorward into warmer waters of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC). In particular, we will characterize the magnitude of iceberg flux during key times of AIS evolution: • The middle Miocene glacial intensification of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet, • The mid-Pliocene warm interval, • The late Pliocene glacial expansion of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet,more »• The mid-Pleistocene transition, and • The “warm interglacials” and glacial terminations of the last 800 ky. We will use the geochemical provenance of iceberg-rafted detritus and other glacially eroded material to determine regional sources of AIS mass loss in this region, address interhemispheric phasing of ice sheet growth and decay, study the distribution and history of land-based versus marine-based ice sheets around the continent over time, and explore the links between AIS variability and global sea level. By comparing north–south variations across the Scotia Sea, Expedition 382 will also deliver critical information on how climate changes in the Southern Ocean affect ocean circulation through the Drake Passage, meridional overturning in the region, water-mass production, CO2 transfer by wind-induced upwelling, sea ice variability, bottom water outflow from the Weddell Sea, Antarctic weathering inputs, and changes in oceanic and atmospheric fronts in the vicinity of the ACC. Comparing changes in dust proxy records between the Scotia Sea and Antarctic ice cores will also provide a detailed reconstruction of changes in the Southern Hemisphere westerlies on millennial and orbital timescales for the last 800 ky. Extending the ocean dust record beyond the last 800 ky will help to evaluate climate-dust couplings since the Pliocene, the potential role of dust in iron fertilization and atmospheric CO2 drawdown during glacials, and whether dust input to Antarctica played a role in the mid-Pleistocene transition. The principal scientific objective of the South Falkland Slope sites to the north is to reconstruct and understand how ocean circulation and intermediate water formation responds to changes in climate with a special focus on the connectivity between the Atlantic and Pacific basins. The South Falkland Slope Drift, a contourite drift on the Falkland margin deposited between 400 and 2000 m water depth, is ideally situated to monitor millennial- to orbital-scale variability in the export of Antarctic Intermediate Water beneath the Subantarctic Front over at least the last 2 My. We anticipate that these sites will yield a wide array of paleoceanographic records that can be used to interpret past changes in the density structure of the Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean and track the migration of the Subantarctic Front. We expect the cored sediments to capture the following significant climate episodes: • The most recent warm interglacials of the late Pleistocene; • The mid-Pleistocene transition, when δ18O records shifted from dominantly 41 to 100 ky periodicity; and possibly • Mid-Pliocene warm intervals, often invoked as the best analog for possible future climate change.« less
5. Iceberg Alley and Subantarctic Ice and Ocean Dynamics

   https://doi.org/10.14379/iodp.proc.382.2021  

   Weber, M.E. ; Raymo, M.E. ; Peck, V.L. ; Williams, T. ( May 2021 , Proceedings of the International Ocean Discovery Program)

   International Ocean Discovery Program Expedition 382, Iceberg Alley and Subantarctic Ice and Ocean Dynamics, investigated the long-term climate history of Antarctica, seeking to understand how polar ice sheets responded to changes in insolation and atmospheric CO2 in the past and how ice sheet evolution influenced global sea level and vice versa. Five sites (U1534–U1538) were drilled east of the Drake Passage: two sites at 53.2°S at the northern edge of the Scotia Sea and three sites at 57.4°–59.4°S in the southern Scotia Sea. We recovered continuously deposited late Neogene sediments to reconstruct the past history and variability in Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) mass loss and associated changes in oceanic and atmospheric circulation. The sites from the southern Scotia Sea (Sites U1536–U1538) will be used to study the Neogene flux of icebergs through “Iceberg Alley,” the main pathway along which icebergs calved from the margin of the AIS travel as they move equatorward into the warmer waters of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC). In particular, sediments from this area will allow us to assess the magnitude of iceberg flux during key times of AIS evolution, including the following: • The middle Miocene glacial intensification of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet, •more »The mid-Pliocene warm period, • The late Pliocene glacial expansion of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, • The mid-Pleistocene transition (MPT), and • The “warm interglacials” and glacial terminations of the last 800 ky. We will use the geochemical provenance of iceberg-rafted detritus and other glacially eroded material to determine regional sources of AIS mass loss. We will also address interhemispheric phasing of ice sheet growth and decay, study the distribution and history of land-based versus marine-based ice sheets around the continent over time, and explore the links between AIS variability and global sea level. By comparing north–south variations across the Scotia Sea between the Pirie Basin (Site U1538) and the Dove Basin (Sites U1536 and U1537), Expedition 382 will also deliver critical information on how climate changes in the Southern Ocean affect ocean circulation through the Drake Passage, meridional overturning in the region, water mass production, ocean–atmosphere CO2 transfer by wind-induced upwelling, sea ice variability, bottom water outflow from the Weddell Sea, Antarctic weathering inputs, and changes in oceanic and atmospheric fronts in the vicinity of the ACC. Comparing changes in dust proxy records between the Scotia Sea and Antarctic ice cores will also provide a detailed reconstruction of changes in the Southern Hemisphere westerlies on millennial and orbital timescales for the last 800 ky. Extending the ocean dust record beyond the last 800 ky will help to evaluate dust-climate couplings since the Pliocene, the potential role of dust in iron fertilization and atmospheric CO2 drawdown during glacials, and whether dust input to Antarctica played a role in the MPT. The principal scientific objective of Subantarctic Front Sites U1534 and U1535 at the northern limit of the Scotia Sea is to reconstruct and understand how intermediate water formation in the southwest Atlantic responds to changes in connectivity between the Atlantic and Pacific basins, the “cold water route.” The Subantarctic Front contourite drift, deposited between 400 and 2000 m water depth on the northern flank of an east–west trending trough off the Chilean continental shelf, is ideally situated to monitor millennial- to orbital-scale variability in the export of Antarctic Intermediate Water beneath the Subantarctic Front. During Expedition 382, we recovered continuously deposited sediments from this drift spanning the late Pleistocene (from ~0.78 Ma to recent) and from the late Pliocene (~3.1–2.6 Ma). These sites are expected to yield a wide array of paleoceanographic records that can be used to interpret past changes in the density structure of the Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean, track migrations of the Subantarctic Front, and give insights into the role and evolution of the cold water route over significant climate episodes, including the following: • The most recent warm interglacials of the late Pleistocene and • The intensification of Northern Hemisphere glaciation.« less