Estimating and quantifying uncertainty in system parameters remains a big challenge in applied and computational mathematics. A subset of these problems includes estimating periodic parameters that have unknown dynamics. Along with their time series, the period of these parameters may also be unknown and need to be estimated. The aim of this paper is to address the periodic parameter estimation problem, with particular focus on exploring the associated uncertainty, using Monte Carlo particle methods, such as the ensemble Kalman filter. Both parameter tracking and piecewise function approximations of periodic parameters are considered, highlighting aspects of parameter uncertainty in each approach when considering factors such as the frequency of available data and the number of piecewise segments used in the approximation. Estimation of the period of the periodic parameters and related uncertainty is also analyzed in the piecewise formulation. The pros and cons of each approach are discussed relative to a numerical example estimating the external voltage parameter in the FitzHugh-Nagumo system for modeling the spiking dynamics of neurons.
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Wiggly canards: Growth of traveling wave trains through a family of fast-subsystem foci
A class of two-fast, one-slow multiple timescale dynamical systems is considered that contains the system of ordinary differential equations obtained from seeking travelling-wave solutions to the FitzHugh-Nagumo equations in one space dimension. The question addressed is the mechanism by which a small-amplitude periodic orbit, created in a Hopf bifurcation, undergoes rapid amplitude growth in a small parameter interval, akin to a canard explosion. The presence of a saddle-focus structure around the slow manifold implies that a single periodic orbit undergoes a sequence of folds as the amplitude grows. An analysis is performed under some general hypotheses using a combination ideas from the theory of canard explosion and Shilnikov analysis. An asymptotic formula is obtained for the dependence of the parameter location of the folds on the singular parameter and parameters that control the saddle focus eigenvalues. The analysis is shown to agree with numerical results both for a synthetic normal-form example and the FitzHugh-Nagumo system.
more » « less- Award ID(s):
- 2204758
- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10336958
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Discrete & Continuous Dynamical Systems - S
- Volume:
- 0
- Issue:
- 0
- ISSN:
- 1937-1632
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 0
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.3934/dcdss.2022036
