We give an nO(loglogn)-time membership query algorithm for properly and agnostically learning decision trees under the uniform distribution over {±1}n. Even in the realizable setting, the previous fastest runtime was nO(logn), a consequence of a classic algorithm of Ehrenfeucht and Haussler. Our algorithm shares similarities with practical heuristics for learning decision trees, which we augment with additional ideas to circumvent known lower bounds against these heuristics. To analyze our algorithm, we prove a new structural result for decision trees that strengthens a theorem of O'Donnell, Saks, Schramm, and Servedio. While the OSSS theorem says that every decision tree has an influential variable, we show how every decision tree can be “pruned” so that every variable in the resulting tree is influential.
more »
« less
Decision tree heuristics can fail, even in the smoothed setting
Greedy decision tree learning heuristics are mainstays of machine learning practice, but theoretical justification for their empirical success remains elusive. In fact, it has long been known that there are simple target functions for which they fail badly (Kearns and Mansour, STOC 1996). Recent work of Brutzkus, Daniely, and Malach (COLT 2020) considered the smoothed analysis model as a possible avenue towards resolving this disconnect. Within the smoothed setting and for targets f that are k-juntas, they showed that these heuristics successfully learn f with depth-k decision tree hypotheses. They conjectured that the same guarantee holds more generally for targets that are depth-k decision trees. We provide a counterexample to this conjecture: we construct targets that are depth-k decision trees and show that even in the smoothed setting, these heuristics build trees of depth 2^{Ω(k)} before achieving high accuracy. We also show that the guarantees of Brutzkus et al. cannot extend to the agnostic setting: there are targets that are very close to k-juntas, for which these heuristics build trees of depth 2^{Ω(k)} before achieving high accuracy.
more »
« less
- Award ID(s):
- 2006664
- PAR ID:
- 10339715
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- APPROX/RANDOM 2021
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
More Like this
-
-
We give an nO(log log n)-time membership query algorithm for properly and agnostically learning decision trees under the uniform distribution over { ± 1}n. Even in the realizable setting, the previous fastest runtime was nO(log n), a consequence of a classic algorithm of Ehrenfeucht and Haussler. Our algorithm shares similarities with practical heuristics for learning decision trees, which we augment with additional ideas to circumvent known lower bounds against these heuristics. To analyze our algorithm, we prove a new structural result for decision trees that strengthens a theorem of O’Donnell, Saks, Schramm, and Servedio. While the OSSS theorem says that every decision tree has an influential variable, we show how every decision tree can be “pruned” so that every variable in the resulting tree is influential.more » « less
-
In this paper, we investigate whether decision trees can be used to interpret a black-box classifier without knowing the learning algorithm and the training data. Decision trees are known for their transparency and high expressivity. However, they are also notorious for their instability and tendency to grow excessively large. We present a classifier reverse engineering model that outputs a decision tree to interpret the black-box classifier. There are two major challenges. One is to build such a decision tree with controlled stability and size, and the other is that probing the black-box classifier is limited for security and economic reasons. Our model addresses the two issues by simultaneously minimizing sampling cost and classifier complexity. We present our empirical results on four real datasets, and demonstrate that our reverse engineering learning model can effectively approximate and simplify the black box classifier.more » « less
-
Calibration measures quantify how much a forecaster’s predictions violate calibration, which requires that forecasts are unbiased conditioning on the forecasted probabilities. Two important desiderata for a calibration measure are its decision-theoretic implications (i.e., downstream decision-makers that best respond to the forecasts are always no-regret) and its truthfulness (i.e., a forecaster approximately minimizes error by always reporting the true probabilities). Existing measures satisfy at most one of the properties, but not both. We introduce a new calibration measure termed subsampled step calibration, StepCEsub, that is both decision-theoretic and truthful. In particular, on any product distribution, StepCEsub is truthful up to an O(1) factor whereas prior decision-theoretic calibration measures suffer from an e−Ω(T)–Ω(T−−√) truthfulness gap. Moreover, in any smoothed setting where the conditional probability of each event is perturbed by a noise of magnitude c>0, StepCEsub is truthful up to an O(log(1/c)−−−−−−−√) factor, while prior decision-theoretic measures have an e−Ω(T)–Ω(T1/3) truthfulness gap. We also prove a general impossibility result for truthful decision-theoretic forecasting: any complete and decision-theoretic calibration measure must be discontinuous and non-truthful in the non-smoothed setting.more » « less
-
Sparse decision tree optimization has been one of the most fundamental problems in AI since its inception and is a challenge at the core of interpretable machine learning. Sparse decision tree optimization is computationally hard, and despite steady effort since the 1960's, breakthroughs have been made on the problem only within the past few years, primarily on the problem of finding optimal sparse decision trees. However, current state-of-the-art algorithms often require impractical amounts of computation time and memory to find optimal or near-optimal trees for some real-world datasets, particularly those having several continuous-valued features. Given that the search spaces of these decision tree optimization problems are massive, can we practically hope to find a sparse decision tree that competes in accuracy with a black box machine learning model? We address this problem via smart guessing strategies that can be applied to any optimal branch-and-bound-based decision tree algorithm. The guesses come from knowledge gleaned from black box models. We show that by using these guesses, we can reduce the run time by multiple orders of magnitude while providing bounds on how far the resulting trees can deviate from the black box's accuracy and expressive power. Our approach enables guesses about how to bin continuous features, the size of the tree, and lower bounds on the error for the optimal decision tree. Our experiments show that in many cases we can rapidly construct sparse decision trees that match the accuracy of black box models. To summarize: when you are having trouble optimizing, just guess.more » « less
An official website of the United States government

