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The solar wind (SW) is a vital component of space weather, providing a background for solar transients such as coronal mass ejections, stream interaction regions, and energetic particles propagating toward Earth. Accurate prediction of space weather events requires a precise description and thorough understanding of physical processes occurring in the ambient SW plasma. Ensemble simulations of the three-dimensional SW flow are performed using an empirically-driven magnetohydrodynamic heliosphere model implemented in the Multi-Scale Fluid-Kinetic Simulation Suite (MS-FLUKSS). The effect of uncertainties in the photospheric boundary conditions on the simulation outcome is investigated. The results are in good overall agreement with the observations from the Parker Solar Probe, Solar Orbiter, Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory, and OMNI data at Earth, specifically during 2020-2021. This makes it possible to shed more light on the properties of the SW propagating through the heliosphere and perspectives for improving space weather forecasts.
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Predicting the Solar Wind Using Empirically-driven Data-constrained Heliospheric MHD Model
The Sun emits a stream of charged particles called the solar wind, which is the primary driver of space weather and geomagnetic disturbances. Modeling and observations complement each other to help us identify and understand the physical processes governing the solar wind dynamics on different scales. Numerical models of the solar wind have greatly improved in recent years with advances in computational infrastructure and by employing data-driven or data-assimilative approaches. Designed primarily for modeling the partially ionized space plasma using adaptive mesh refinement technique on Cartesian or spherical grids, the Multi-scale Fluid-kinetic Simulation Suite (MS-FLUKSS) is arguably one of the most sophisticated numerical codes for simulating the solar wind flow. To inform potential users and interested members of the space weather community, we present a brief summary of the current state of the solar wind models developed in the MS-FLUKSS framework, with an emphasis on the 3D heliospheric MHD models driven and constrained by remote/in situ observations and empirical coronal models such as the Wang-Sheeley-Arge model. We also discuss potential scientific and operational applications of our solar wind models on prediction of space weather (e.g., high speed streams, coronal mass ejections, and interplanetary shocks) throughout the solar system.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2028154
- PAR ID:
- 10342185
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- AGU Fall Meeting 2021, held in New Orleans, LA, 13-17 December 2021, id. SM53B-08.
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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