This content will become publicly available on June 28, 2023
Title: Quantifying the environmental limits to fire spread in grassy ecosystems
Modeling fire spread as an infection process is intuitive: An ignition lights a patch of fuel, which infects its neighbor, and so on. Infection models produce nonlinear thresholds, whereby fire spreads only when fuel connectivity and infection probability are sufficiently high. These thresholds are fundamental both to managing fire and to theoretical models of fire spread, whereas applied fire models more often apply quasi-empirical approaches. Here, we resolve this tension by quantifying thresholds in fire spread locally, using field data from individual fires ( n = 1,131) in grassy ecosystems across a precipitation gradient (496 to 1,442 mm mean annual precipitation) and evaluating how these scaled regionally (across 533 sites) and across time (1989 to 2012 and 2016 to 2018) using data from Kruger National Park in South Africa. An infection model captured observed patterns in individual fire spread better than competing models. The proportion of the landscape that burned was well described by measurements of grass biomass, fuel moisture, and vapor pressure deficit. Regionally, averaging across variability resulted in quasi-linear patterns. Altogether, results suggest that models aiming to capture fire responses to global change should incorporate nonlinear fire spread thresholds but that linear approximations may sufficiently capture medium-term trends more »
under a stationary climate. « less
Infections with nontyphoidalSalmonellacause an estimated 19,336 hospitalizations each year in the United States. Sources of infection can vary by state and include animal and plant-based foods, as well as environmental reservoirs. Several studies have recognized the importance of increased ambient temperature and precipitation in the spread and persistence ofSalmonellain soil and food. However, the impact of extreme weather events onSalmonellainfection rates among the most prevalent serovars, has not been fully evaluated across distinct U.S. regions.
Methods
To address this knowledge gap, we obtainedSalmonellacase data forS.Enteriditis,S.Typhimurium,S.Newport, andS.Javiana (2004-2014; n = 32,951) from the Foodborne Diseases Active Surveillance Network (FoodNet), and weather data from the National Climatic Data Center (1960-2014). Extreme heat and precipitation events for the study period (2004-2014) were identified using location and calendar day specific 95thpercentile thresholds derived using a 30-year baseline (1960-1989). Negative binomial generalized estimating equations were used to evaluate the association between exposure to extreme events and salmonellosis rates.
Results
We observed that extreme heat exposure was associated with increased rates of infection withS.Newport in Maryland (Incidence Rate Ratio (IRR): 1.07, 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 1.01, 1.14), and Tennessee (IRR: 1.06, 95% CI: 1.04, 1.09), both FoodNet sites with high densities of animal feeding operations (e.g., broilermore »chickens and cattle). Extreme precipitation events were also associated with increased rates ofS.Javiana infections, by 22% in Connecticut (IRR: 1.22, 95% CI: 1.10, 1.35) and by 5% in Georgia (IRR: 1.05, 95% CI: 1.01, 1.08), respectively. In addition, there was an 11% (IRR: 1.11, 95% CI: 1.04-1.18) increased rate ofS. Newport infections in Maryland associated with extreme precipitation events.
Conclusions
Overall, our study suggests a stronger association between extreme precipitation events, compared to extreme heat, and salmonellosis across multiple U.S. regions. In addition, the rates of infection withSalmonellaserovars that persist in environmental or plant-based reservoirs, such asS.Javiana andS.Newport, appear to be of particular significance regarding increased heat and rainfall events.
Ziel, Robert H.; Bieniek, Peter A.; Bhatt, Uma S.; Strader, Heidi; Rupp, T. Scott; York, Alison(
, Forests)
Research Highlights: Flammability of wildland fuels is a key factor influencing risk-based decisions related to preparedness, response, and safety in Alaska. However, without effective measures of current and expected flammability, the expected likelihood of active and problematic wildfires in the future is difficult to assess and prepare for. This study evaluates the effectiveness of diverse indices to capture high-risk fires. Indicators of drought and atmospheric drivers are assessed along with the operational Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System (CFFDRS). Background and Objectives: In this study, 13 different indicators of atmospheric conditions, fuel moisture, and flammability are compared to determine how effective each is at identifying thresholds and trends for significant wildfire activity. Materials and Methods: Flammability indices are compared with remote sensing characterizations that identify where and when fire activity has occurred. Results: Among these flammability indicators, conventional tools calibrated to wildfire thresholds (Duff Moisture Code (DMC) and Buildup Index (BUI)), as well as measures of atmospheric forcing (Vapor Pressure Deficit (VPD)), performed best at representing the conditions favoring initiation and size of significant wildfire events. Conventional assessments of seasonal severity and overall landscape flammability using DMC and BUI can be continued with confidence. Fire models that incorporate BUI inmore »overall fire potential and fire behavior assessments are likely to produce effective results throughout boreal landscapes in Alaska. One novel result is the effectiveness of VPD throughout the state, making it a potential alternative to FFMC among the short-lag/1-day indices. Conclusions: This study demonstrates the societal value of research that joins new academic research results with operational needs. Developing the framework to do this more effectively will bring science to action with a shorter lag time, which is critical as we face growing challenges from a changing climate.« less
Abstract This study compares the spread in climatological tropical cyclone (TC) precipitation across eight different reanalysis datasets: NCEP-CFSR, ERA-20C, ERA-40, ERA5, ERA-Interim, JRA-55, MERRA-2, and NOAA-20C. TC precipitation is assigned using manual tracking via a fixed 500-km radius from each TC center. The reanalyses capture similar general spatial patterns of TC precipitation and TC precipitation fraction, defined as the fraction of annual precipitation assigned to TCs, and the spread in TC precipitation is larger than the spread in total precipitation across reanalyses. The spread in TC precipitation relative to the inter-reanalysis mean TC precipitation, or relative spread, is larger in the east Pacific than in the west Pacific. Partitioned by reanalysis intensity, the largest relative spread across reanalyses in TC precipitation is from high-intensity TCs. In comparison with satellite observations, reanalyses show lower climatological mean annual TC precipitation over most areas. A comparison of area-averaged precipitation rate in TCs composited over reanalysis intensity shows the spread across reanalyses is larger for higher intensity TCs. Testing the sensitivity of TC precipitation assignment to tracking method shows that climatological mean annual TC precipitation is systematically larger when assigned via manual tracking versus objective tracking. However, this tendency is minimized when TC precipitationmore »is normalized by TC density. Overall, TC precipitation in reanalyses is affected by not only horizontal output resolution or any TC preprocessing, but also data assimilation and parameterization schemes. The results indicate that improvements in the representation of TCs and their precipitation in reanalyses are needed to improve overall precipitation.« less
Fornari, Sveva; Schäfer, Amelie; Jucker, Mathias; Goriely, Alain; Kuhl, Ellen(
, Journal of The Royal Society Interface)
The prion hypothesis states that misfolded proteins can act as infectious agents that template the misfolding and aggregation of healthy proteins to transmit a disease. Increasing evidence suggests that pathological proteins in neurodegenerative diseases adopt prion-like mechanisms and spread across the brain along anatomically connected networks. Local kinetic models of protein misfolding and global network models of protein spreading provide valuable insight into several aspects of prion-like diseases. Yet, to date, these models have not been combined to simulate how pathological proteins multiply and spread across the human brain. Here, we create an efficient and robust tool to simulate the spreading of misfolded protein using three classes of kinetic models, the Fisher–Kolmogorov model, the Heterodimer model and the Smoluchowski model. We discretize their governing equations using a human brain network model, which we represent as a weighted Laplacian graph generated from 418 brains from the Human Connectome Project. Its nodes represent the anatomic regions of interest and its edges are weighted by the mean fibre number divided by the mean fibre length between any two regions. We demonstrate that our brain network model can predict the histopathological patterns of Alzheimer’s disease and capture the key characteristic features of finite-element brainmore »models at a fraction of their computational cost: simulating the spatio-temporal evolution of aggregate size distributions across the human brain throughout a period of 40 years takes less than 7 s on a standard laptop computer. Our model has the potential to predict biomarker curves, aggregate size distributions, infection times, and the effects of therapeutic strategies including reduced production and increased clearance of misfolded protein.« less
Villanustre, Flavio; Chala, Arjuna; Dev, Roger; Xu, Lili; LexisNexis, Jesse Shaw; Furht, Borko; Khoshgoftaar, Taghi(
, Journal of Big Data)
Abstract This project is funded by the US National Science Foundation (NSF) through their NSF RAPID program under the title “Modeling Corona Spread Using Big Data Analytics.” The project is a joint effort between the Department of Computer & Electrical Engineering and Computer Science at FAU and a research group from LexisNexis Risk Solutions. The novel coronavirus Covid-19 originated in China in early December 2019 and has rapidly spread to many countries around the globe, with the number of confirmed cases increasing every day. Covid-19 is officially a pandemic. It is a novel infection with serious clinical manifestations, including death, and it has reached at least 124 countries and territories. Although the ultimate course and impact of Covid-19 are uncertain, it is not merely possible but likely that the disease will produce enough severe illness to overwhelm the worldwide health care infrastructure. Emerging viral pandemics can place extraordinary and sustained demands on public health and health systems and on providers of essential community services. Modeling the Covid-19 pandemic spread is challenging. But there are data that can be used to project resource demands. Estimates of the reproductive number (R) of SARS-CoV-2 show that at the beginning of the epidemic, each infectedmore »person spreads the virus to at least two others, on average (Emanuel et al. in N Engl J Med. 2020, Livingston and Bucher in JAMA 323(14):1335, 2020). A conservatively low estimate is that 5 % of the population could become infected within 3 months. Preliminary data from China and Italy regarding the distribution of case severity and fatality vary widely (Wu and McGoogan in JAMA 323(13):1239–42, 2020). A recent large-scale analysis from China suggests that 80 % of those infected either are asymptomatic or have mild symptoms; a finding that implies that demand for advanced medical services might apply to only 20 % of the total infected. Of patients infected with Covid-19, about 15 % have severe illness and 5 % have critical illness (Emanuel et al. in N Engl J Med. 2020). Overall, mortality ranges from 0.25 % to as high as 3.0 % (Emanuel et al. in N Engl J Med. 2020, Wilson et al. in Emerg Infect Dis 26(6):1339, 2020). Case fatality rates are much higher for vulnerable populations, such as persons over the age of 80 years (> 14 %) and those with coexisting conditions (10 % for those with cardiovascular disease and 7 % for those with diabetes) (Emanuel et al. in N Engl J Med. 2020). Overall, Covid-19 is substantially deadlier than seasonal influenza, which has a mortality of roughly 0.1 %. Public health efforts depend heavily on predicting how diseases such as those caused by Covid-19 spread across the globe. During the early days of a new outbreak, when reliable data are still scarce, researchers turn to mathematical models that can predict where people who could be infected are going and how likely they are to bring the disease with them. These computational methods use known statistical equations that calculate the probability of individuals transmitting the illness. Modern computational power allows these models to quickly incorporate multiple inputs, such as a given disease’s ability to pass from person to person and the movement patterns of potentially infected people traveling by air and land. This process sometimes involves making assumptions about unknown factors, such as an individual’s exact travel pattern. By plugging in different possible versions of each input, however, researchers can update the models as new information becomes available and compare their results to observed patterns for the illness. In this paper we describe the development a model of Corona spread by using innovative big data analytics techniques and tools. We leveraged our experience from research in modeling Ebola spread (Shaw et al. Modeling Ebola Spread and Using HPCC/KEL System. In: Big Data Technologies and Applications 2016 (pp. 347-385). Springer, Cham) to successfully model Corona spread, we will obtain new results, and help in reducing the number of Corona patients. We closely collaborated with LexisNexis, which is a leading US data analytics company and a member of our NSF I/UCRC for Advanced Knowledge Enablement. The lack of a comprehensive view and informative analysis of the status of the pandemic can also cause panic and instability within society. Our work proposes the HPCC Systems Covid-19 tracker, which provides a multi-level view of the pandemic with the informative virus spreading indicators in a timely manner. The system embeds a classical epidemiological model known as SIR and spreading indicators based on causal model. The data solution of the tracker is built on top of the Big Data processing platform HPCC Systems, from ingesting and tracking of various data sources to fast delivery of the data to the public. The HPCC Systems Covid-19 tracker presents the Covid-19 data on a daily, weekly, and cumulative basis up to global-level and down to the county-level. It also provides statistical analysis for each level such as new cases per 100,000 population. The primary analysis such as Contagion Risk and Infection State is based on causal model with a seven-day sliding window. Our work has been released as a publicly available website to the world and attracted a great volume of traffic. The project is open-sourced and available on GitHub. The system was developed on the LexisNexis HPCC Systems, which is briefly described in the paper.« less
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This content will become publicly available on June 28, 2023
Cardoso, Anabelle W., Archibald, Sally, Bond, William J., Coetsee, Corli, Forrest, Matthew, Govender, Navashni, Lehmann, David, Makaga, Loïc, Mpanza, Nokukhanya, Ndong, Josué Edzang, Koumba Pambo, Aurélie Flore, Strydom, Tercia, Tilman, David, Wragg, Peter D., and Staver, A. Carla. Quantifying the environmental limits to fire spread in grassy ecosystems. Retrieved from https://par.nsf.gov/biblio/10343729. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 119.26 Web. doi:10.1073/pnas.2110364119.
Cardoso, Anabelle W., Archibald, Sally, Bond, William J., Coetsee, Corli, Forrest, Matthew, Govender, Navashni, Lehmann, David, Makaga, Loïc, Mpanza, Nokukhanya, Ndong, Josué Edzang, Koumba Pambo, Aurélie Flore, Strydom, Tercia, Tilman, David, Wragg, Peter D., & Staver, A. Carla. Quantifying the environmental limits to fire spread in grassy ecosystems. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 119 (26). Retrieved from https://par.nsf.gov/biblio/10343729. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2110364119
Cardoso, Anabelle W., Archibald, Sally, Bond, William J., Coetsee, Corli, Forrest, Matthew, Govender, Navashni, Lehmann, David, Makaga, Loïc, Mpanza, Nokukhanya, Ndong, Josué Edzang, Koumba Pambo, Aurélie Flore, Strydom, Tercia, Tilman, David, Wragg, Peter D., and Staver, A. Carla.
"Quantifying the environmental limits to fire spread in grassy ecosystems". Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 119 (26). Country unknown/Code not available. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2110364119.https://par.nsf.gov/biblio/10343729.
@article{osti_10343729,
place = {Country unknown/Code not available},
title = {Quantifying the environmental limits to fire spread in grassy ecosystems},
url = {https://par.nsf.gov/biblio/10343729},
DOI = {10.1073/pnas.2110364119},
abstractNote = {Modeling fire spread as an infection process is intuitive: An ignition lights a patch of fuel, which infects its neighbor, and so on. Infection models produce nonlinear thresholds, whereby fire spreads only when fuel connectivity and infection probability are sufficiently high. These thresholds are fundamental both to managing fire and to theoretical models of fire spread, whereas applied fire models more often apply quasi-empirical approaches. Here, we resolve this tension by quantifying thresholds in fire spread locally, using field data from individual fires ( n = 1,131) in grassy ecosystems across a precipitation gradient (496 to 1,442 mm mean annual precipitation) and evaluating how these scaled regionally (across 533 sites) and across time (1989 to 2012 and 2016 to 2018) using data from Kruger National Park in South Africa. An infection model captured observed patterns in individual fire spread better than competing models. The proportion of the landscape that burned was well described by measurements of grass biomass, fuel moisture, and vapor pressure deficit. Regionally, averaging across variability resulted in quasi-linear patterns. Altogether, results suggest that models aiming to capture fire responses to global change should incorporate nonlinear fire spread thresholds but that linear approximations may sufficiently capture medium-term trends under a stationary climate.},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
volume = {119},
number = {26},
author = {Cardoso, Anabelle W. and Archibald, Sally and Bond, William J. and Coetsee, Corli and Forrest, Matthew and Govender, Navashni and Lehmann, David and Makaga, Loïc and Mpanza, Nokukhanya and Ndong, Josué Edzang and Koumba Pambo, Aurélie Flore and Strydom, Tercia and Tilman, David and Wragg, Peter D. and Staver, A. Carla},
}
