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1. An empirical approach to model selection: weak lensing and intrinsic alignments

   https://doi.org/10.1093/mnras/stad2213  

   Campos, A. ; Samuroff, S. ; Mandelbaum, R. ( July 2023 , Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society)

   In cosmology, we routinely choose between models to describe our data, and can incur biases due to insufficient models or lose constraining power with overly complex models. In this paper, we propose an empirical approach to model selection that explicitly balances parameter bias against model complexity. Our method uses synthetic data to calibrate the relation between bias and the χ2 difference between models. This allows us to interpret χ2 values obtained from real data (even if catalogues are blinded) and choose a model accordingly. We apply our method to the problem of intrinsic alignments – one of the most significant weak lensing systematics, and a major contributor to the error budget in modern lensing surveys. Specifically, we consider the example of the Dark Energy Survey Year 3 (DES Y3), and compare the commonly used non-linear alignment (NLA) and tidal alignment and tidal torque (TATT) models. The models are calibrated against bias in the Ωm–S8 plane. Once noise is accounted for, we find that it is possible to set a threshold Δχ2 that guarantees an analysis using NLA is unbiased at some specified level Nσ and confidence level. By contrast, we find that theoretically defined thresholds (based on, e.g. p-values for χ2) tend to be overly optimistic, and do not reliably rule out cosmological biases up to ∼1–2σ. Considering the real DES Y3 cosmic shear results, based on the reported difference in χ2 from NLA and TATT analyses, we find a roughly $30{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ chance that were NLA to be the fiducial model, the results would be biased (in the Ωm–S8 plane) by more than 0.3σ. More broadly, the method we propose here is simple and general, and requires a relatively low level of resources. We foresee applications to future analyses as a model selection tool in many contexts.

    

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2. Dark energy survey year 3 results: cosmological constraints from the analysis of cosmic shear in harmonic space

   https://doi.org/10.1093/mnras/stac1826  

   Doux, C ; Jain, B ; Zeurcher, D ; Lee, J ; Fang, X ; Rosenfeld, R ; Amon, A ; Camacho, H ; Choi, A ; Secco, L F ; et al ( July 2022 , Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society)

   ABSTRACT We present cosmological constraints from the analysis of angular power spectra of cosmic shear maps based on data from the first three years of observations by the Dark Energy Survey (DES Y3). Our measurements are based on the pseudo-Cℓ method and complement the analysis of the two-point correlation functions in real space, as the two estimators are known to compress and select Gaussian information in different ways, due to scale cuts. They may also be differently affected by systematic effects and theoretical uncertainties, making this analysis an important cross-check. Using the same fiducial Lambda cold dark matter model as in the DES Y3 real-space analysis, we find ${S_8 \equiv \sigma _8 \sqrt{\Omega _{\rm m}/0.3} = 0.793^{+0.038}_{-0.025}}$, which further improves to S8 = 0.784 ± 0.026 when including shear ratios. This result is within expected statistical fluctuations from the real-space constraint, and in agreement with DES Y3 analyses of non-Gaussian statistics, but favours a slightly higher value of S8, which reduces the tension with the Planck 2018 constraints from 2.3σ in the real space analysis to 1.5σ here. We explore less conservative intrinsic alignments models than the one adopted in our fiducial analysis, finding no clear preference for a more complex model. We also include small scales, using an increased Fourier mode cut-off up to $k_{\rm max}={5}\, {h}\, {\rm Mpc}^{-1}$, which allows to constrain baryonic feedback while leaving cosmological constraints essentially unchanged. Finally, we present an approximate reconstruction of the linear matter power spectrum at present time, found to be about 20 per cent lower than predicted by Planck 2018, as reflected by the lower S8 value. 

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3. The Dark Energy Survey Year 3 and eBOSS: constraining galaxy intrinsic alignments across luminosity and colour space

   https://doi.org/10.1093/mnras/stad2013  

   Samuroff, S. ; Mandelbaum, R. ; Blazek, J. ; Campos, A. ; MacCrann, N. ; Zacharegkas, G. ; Amon, A. ; Prat, J. ; Singh, S. ; Elvin-Poole, J. ; et al ( July 2023 , Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society)

   We present direct constraints on galaxy intrinsic alignments (IAs) using the Dark Energy Survey Year 3 (DES Y3), the Extended Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (eBOSS), and its precursor, the Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (BOSS). Our measurements incorporate photometric red sequence (redMaGiC) galaxies from DES with median redshift z ∼ 0.2–1.0, luminous red galaxies from eBOSS at z ∼ 0.8, and also an SDSS-III BOSS CMASS sample at z ∼ 0.5. We measure two-point IA correlations, which we fit using a model that includes lensing, magnification, and photometric redshift error. Fitting on scales 6 Mpc h−1 < rp < 70 Mpc h−1, we make a detection of IAs in each sample, at 5σ–22σ (assuming a simple one-parameter model for IAs). Using these red samples, we measure the IA–luminosity relation. Our results are statistically consistent with previous results, but offer a significant improvement in constraining power, particularly at low luminosity. With this improved precision, we see detectable dependence on colour between broadly defined red samples. It is likely that a more sophisticated approach than a binary red/blue split, which jointly considers colour and luminosity dependence in the IA signal, will be needed in future. We also compare the various signal components at the best-fitting point in parameter space for each sample, and find that magnification and lensing contribute $\sim 2\!-\!18~{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ of the total signal. As precision continues to improve, it will certainly be necessary to account for these effects in future direct IA measurements. Finally, we make equivalent measurements on a sample of emission-line galaxies from eBOSS at z ∼ 0.8. We constrain the non-linear alignment amplitude to be $A_1=0.07^{+0.32}_{-0.42}$ (|A1| < 0.78 at 95 per cent CL).

    

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4. Beyond the 3rd moment: a practical study of using lensing convergence CDFs for cosmology with DES Y3

   https://doi.org/10.1093/mnras/stad3118  

   Anbajagane, D. ; Chang, C. ; Banerjee, A. ; Abel, T. ; Gatti, M. ; Ajani, V. ; Alarcon, A. ; Amon, A. ; Baxter, E. J. ; Bechtol, K. ; et al ( October 2023 , Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society)

   Widefield surveys probe clustered scalar fields – such as galaxy counts, lensing potential, etc. – which are sensitive to different cosmological and astrophysical processes. Constraining such processes depends on the statistics that summarize the field. We explore the cumulative distribution function (CDF) as a summary of the galaxy lensing convergence field. Using a suite of N-body light-cone simulations, we show the CDFs’ constraining power is modestly better than the second and third moments, as CDFs approximately capture information from all moments. We study the practical aspects of applying CDFs to data, using the Dark Energy Survey (DES Y3) data as an example, and compute the impact of different systematics on the CDFs. The contributions from the point spread function and reduced shear approximation are $\lesssim 1~{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ of the total signal. Source clustering effects and baryon imprints contribute 1–10 per cent. Enforcing scale cuts to limit systematics-driven biases in parameter constraints degrade these constraints a noticeable amount, and this degradation is similar for the CDFs and the moments. We detect correlations between the observed convergence field and the shape noise field at 13σ. The non-Gaussian correlations in the noise field must be modelled accurately to use the CDFs, or other statistics sensitive to all moments, as a rigorous cosmology tool.

    

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5. Dark energy survey year 3 results: Cosmology with peaks using an emulator approach

   https://doi.org/10.1093/mnras/stac078  

   Zürcher, D ; Fluri, J ; Sgier, R ; Kacprzak, T ; Gatti, M ; Doux, C ; Whiteway, L ; Réfrégier, A ; Chang, C ; Jeffrey, N ; et al ( February 2022 , Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society)

   ABSTRACT We constrain the matter density Ωm and the amplitude of density fluctuations σ8 within the ΛCDM cosmological model with shear peak statistics and angular convergence power spectra using mass maps constructed from the first three years of data of the Dark Energy Survey (DES Y3). We use tomographic shear peak statistics, including cross-peaks: peak counts calculated on maps created by taking a harmonic space product of the convergence of two tomographic redshift bins. Our analysis follows a forward-modelling scheme to create a likelihood of these statistics using N-body simulations, using a Gaussian process emulator. We take into account the uncertainty from the remaining, largely unconstrained ΛCDM parameters (Ωb, ns, and h). We include the following lensing systematics: multiplicative shear bias, photometric redshift uncertainty, and galaxy intrinsic alignment. Stringent scale cuts are applied to avoid biases from unmodelled baryonic physics. We find that the additional non-Gaussian information leads to a tightening of the constraints on the structure growth parameter yielding $S_8~\equiv ~\sigma _8\sqrt{\Omega _{\mathrm{m}}/0.3}~=~0.797_{-0.013}^{+0.015}$ (68 per cent confidence limits), with a precision of 1.8 per cent, an improvement of 38 per cent compared to the angular power spectra only case. The results obtained with the angular power spectra and peak counts are found to be in agreement with each other and no significant difference in S8 is recorded. We find a mild tension of $1.5 \, \sigma$ between our study and the results from Planck 2018, with our analysis yielding a lower S8. Furthermore, we observe that the combination of angular power spectra and tomographic peak counts breaks the degeneracy between galaxy intrinsic alignment AIA and S8, improving cosmological constraints. We run a suite of tests concluding that our results are robust and consistent with the results from other studies using DES Y3 data. 

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