skip to main content


Title: Resolving glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) in response to modern and future ice loss at marine grounding lines in West Antarctica
Abstract. Accurate glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) modelling in the cryosphere is required for interpreting satellite, geophysical and geological recordsand for assessing the feedbacks of Earth deformation and sea-level change on marine ice-sheet grounding lines. GIA modelling in areas of active ice lossin West Antarctica is particularly challenging because the ice is underlain by laterally varying mantle viscosities that are up to several orders ofmagnitude lower than the global average, leading to a faster and more localised response of the solid Earth to ongoing and future ice-sheet retreatand necessitating GIA models that incorporate 3-D viscoelastic Earth structure. Improvements to GIA models allow for computation of the viscoelasticresponse of the Earth to surface ice loading at sub-kilometre resolution, and ice-sheet models and observational products now provide the inputs toGIA models at comparably unprecedented detail. However, the resolution required to accurately capture GIA in models remains poorly understood, andhigh-resolution calculations come at heavy computational expense. We adopt a 3-D GIA model with a range of Earth structure models based on recentseismic tomography and geodetic data to perform a comprehensive analysis of the influence of grid resolution on predictions of GIA in the AmundsenSea Embayment (ASE) in West Antarctica. Through idealised sensitivity testing down to sub-kilometre resolution with spatially isolated ice loadingchanges, we find that a grid resolution of ∼ 13 of the radius of the load or higher is required to accurately capture the elasticresponse of the Earth. However, when we consider more realistic, spatially coherent ice loss scenarios based on modern observational records andfuture ice-sheet model projections and adopt a viscoelastic Earth, we find that predicted deformation and sea-level change along the grounding lineconverge to within 5 % with grid resolutions of 7.5 km or higher, and to within 2 % for grid resolutions of 3.75 km andhigher, even when the input ice model is on a 1 km grid. Furthermore, we show that low mantle viscosities beneath the ASE lead to viscousdeformation that contributes to the instrumental record on decadal timescales and equals or dominates over elastic effects by the end of the 21stcentury. Our findings suggest that for the range of resolutions of 1.9–15 km that we considered, the error due to adopting a coarser gridin this region is negligible compared to the effect of neglecting viscous effects and the uncertainty in the adopted mantle viscosity structure.  more » « less
Award ID(s):
1745074
NSF-PAR ID:
10350647
Author(s) / Creator(s):
; ; ;
Date Published:
Journal Name:
The Cryosphere
Volume:
16
Issue:
6
ISSN:
1994-0424
Page Range / eLocation ID:
2203 to 2223
Format(s):
Medium: X
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
More Like this
  1. SUMMARY

    Earth structure beneath the Antarctic exerts an important control on the evolution of the ice sheet. A range of geological and geophysical data sets indicate that this structure is complex, with the western sector characterized by a lithosphere of thickness ∼50–100 km and viscosities within the upper mantle that vary by 2–3 orders of magnitude. Recent analyses of uplift rates estimated using Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) observations have inferred 1-D viscosity profiles below West Antarctica discretized into a small set of layers within the upper mantle using forward modelling of glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA). It remains unclear, however, what these 1-D viscosity models represent in an area with complex 3-D mantle structure, and over what geographic length-scale they are applicable. Here, we explore this issue by repeating the same modelling procedure but applied to synthetic uplift rates computed using a realistic model of 3-D viscoelastic Earth structure inferred from seismic tomographic imaging of the region, a finite volume treatment of GIA that captures this complexity, and a loading history of Antarctic ice mass changes inferred over the period 1992–2017. We find differences of up to an order of magnitude between the best-fitting 1-D inferences and regionally averaged depth profiles through the 3-D viscosity field used to generate the synthetics. Additional calculations suggest that this level of disagreement is not systematically improved if one increases the number of observation sites adopted in the analysis. Moreover, the 1-D models inferred from such a procedure are non-unique, that is a broad range of viscosity profiles fit the synthetic uplift rates equally well as a consequence, in part, of correlations between the viscosity values within each layer. While the uplift rate at each GNSS site is sensitive to a unique subspace of the complex, 3-D viscosity field, additional analyses based on rates from subsets of proximal sites showed no consistent improvement in the level of bias in the 1-D inference. We also conclude that the broad, regional-scale uplift field generated with the 3-D model is poorly represented by a prediction based on the best-fitting 1-D Earth model. Future work analysing GNSS data should be extended to include horizontal rates and move towards inversions for 3-D structure that reflect the intrinsic 3-D resolving power of the data.

     
    more » « less
  2. Abstract. Retreat and advance of ice sheets perturb the gravitational field, solidsurface and rotation of the Earth, leading to spatially variable sea-levelchanges over a range of timescales O(100−6 years), which in turn feedback onto ice-sheet dynamics. Coupled ice-sheet–sea-level models havebeen developed to capture the interactive processes between ice sheets, sealevel and the solid Earth, but it is computationally challenging to captureshort-term interactions O(100−2 years) precisely within longer O(103−6 years) simulations. The standard forward sea-level modelling algorithmassigns a uniform temporal resolution in the sea-level model, causing aquadratic increase in total CPU time with the total number of input icehistory steps, which increases with either the length or temporal resolutionof the simulation. In this study, we introduce a new “time window”algorithm for 1D pseudo-spectral sea-level models based on the normal modemethod that enables users to define the temporal resolution at which the iceloading history is captured during different time intervals before thecurrent simulation time. Utilizing the time window, we assign a finetemporal resolution O(100−2 years) for the period of ongoing andrecent history of surface ice and ocean loading changes and a coarsertemporal resolution O(103−6 years) for earlier periods in thesimulation. This reduces the total CPU time and memory required per modeltime step while maintaining the precision of the model results. We explorethe sensitivity of sea-level model results to the model temporal resolutionand show how this sensitivity feeds back onto ice-sheet dynamics in coupledmodelling. We apply the new algorithm to simulate sea-level changes inresponse to global ice-sheet evolution over two glacial cycles and the rapidcollapse of marine sectors of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet in the comingcenturies and provide appropriate time window profiles for each application.The time window algorithm reduces the total CPU time by ∼ 50 % in each of these examples and changes the trend of the total CPU timeincrease from quadratic to linear. This improvement would increase withlonger simulations than those considered here. Our algorithm also allows for couplingtime intervals of annual temporal scale for coupled ice-sheet–sea-levelmodelling of regions such as West Antarctica that are characterized byrapid solid Earth response to ice changes due to the thin lithosphere andlow mantle viscosities. 
    more » « less
  3. Abstract

    Seismic tomography models indicate highly variable Earth structure beneath Antarctica with anomalously low shallow mantle viscosities below West Antarctica. An improved projection of the contribution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to sea‐level change requires consideration of this complexity to precisely account for water expelled into the ocean from uplifting marine sectors. Here we build a high‐resolution 3‐D viscoelastic structure model based on recent inferences of seismic velocity heterogeneity below the continent. The model serves as input to a global‐scale sea‐level model that we use to investigate the influence of solid Earth deformation in Antarctica on future global mean sea‐level (GMSL) rise. Our calculations are based on a suite of ice mass projections generated with a range of climate forcings and suggest that water expulsion from the rebounding marine basins contributes 4%–16% and 7%–14% to the projected GMSL change at 2100 and 2500, respectively.

     
    more » « less
  4. Abstract The West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) overlies a thin, variable-thickness lithosphere and a shallow upper-mantle region of laterally varying and, in some regions, very low (~1018 Pa s) viscosity. We explore the extent to which viscous effects may affect predictions of present-day geoid and crustal deformation rates resulting from Antarctic ice mass flux over the last quarter century and project these calculations into the next half century, using viscoelastic Earth models of varying complexity. Peak deformation rates at the end of a 25-yr simulation predicted with an elastic model underestimate analogous predictions that are based on a 3D viscoelastic Earth model (with minimum viscosity below West Antarctica of 1018 Pa s) by ~15 and ~3 mm yr−1 in the vertical and horizontal directions, respectively, at sites overlying low-viscosity mantle and close to high rates of ice mass flux. The discrepancy in uplift rate can be reduced by adopting 1D Earth models tuned to the regional average viscosity profile beneath West Antarctica. In the case of horizontal crustal rates, adopting 1D regional viscosity models is no more accurate in recovering predictions that are based on 3D viscosity models than calculations that assume a purely elastic Earth. The magnitude and relative contribution of viscous relaxation to crustal deformation rates will likely increase significantly in the next several decades, and the adoption of 3D viscoelastic Earth models in analyses of geodetic datasets [e.g., Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS); Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE)] will be required to accurately estimate the magnitude of Antarctic modern ice mass flux in the progressively warming world. 
    more » « less
  5. Abstract

    Contemporary crustal uplift and relative sea level (RSL) change in Greenland is caused by the response of the solid Earth to ongoing and historical ice mass change. Glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) models, which seek to match patterns of land surface displacement and RSL change, typically employ a linear Maxwell viscoelastic model for the Earth's mantle. In Greenland, however, upper mantle viscosities inferred from ice load changes and other geophysical phenomena occurring over a range of timescales vary by up to two orders of magnitude. Here, we use full‐spectrum rheological models to examine the influence of transient deformation within the Greenland upper mantle, which may account for these differing viscosity estimates. We use observations of shear wave velocity combined with constitutive rheological models to self‐consistently calculate mechanical properties including the apparent upper mantle viscosity and lithosphere thickness across a broad spectrum of frequencies. We find that the contribution of transient behavior is most significant over loading timescales of 102–103 years, which corresponds to the timeframe of ice mass loss over recent centuries. Predicted apparent lithosphere thicknesses are also in good agreement with inferences made across seismic, GIA, and flexural timescales. Our results indicate that full‐spectrum constitutive models that more fully capture broadband mantle relaxation provide a means of reconciling seemingly contradictory estimates of Greenland's upper mantle viscosity and lithosphere thickness made from observations spanning a range of timescales.

     
    more » « less