An official website of the United States government
Abstract. Accurate glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) modelling in the cryosphere is required for interpreting satellite, geophysical and geological recordsand for assessing the feedbacks of Earth deformation and sea-level change on marine ice-sheet grounding lines. GIA modelling in areas of active ice lossin West Antarctica is particularly challenging because the ice is underlain by laterally varying mantle viscosities that are up to several orders ofmagnitude lower than the global average, leading to a faster and more localised response of the solid Earth to ongoing and future ice-sheet retreatand necessitating GIA models that incorporate 3-D viscoelastic Earth structure. Improvements to GIA models allow for computation of the viscoelasticresponse of the Earth to surface ice loading at sub-kilometre resolution, and ice-sheet models and observational products now provide the inputs toGIA models at comparably unprecedented detail. However, the resolution required to accurately capture GIA in models remains poorly understood, andhigh-resolution calculations come at heavy computational expense. We adopt a 3-D GIA model with a range of Earth structure models based on recentseismic tomography and geodetic data to perform a comprehensive analysis of the influence of grid resolution on predictions of GIA in the AmundsenSea Embayment (ASE) in West Antarctica. Through idealised sensitivity testing down to sub-kilometre resolution with spatially isolated ice loadingchanges, we find that a grid resolution of ∼ 13 of the radius of the load or higher is required to accurately capture the elasticresponse of the Earth. However, when we consider more realistic, spatially coherent ice loss scenarios based on modern observational records andfuture ice-sheet model projections and adopt a viscoelastic Earth, we find that predicted deformation and sea-level change along the grounding lineconverge to within 5 % with grid resolutions of 7.5 km or higher, and to within 2 % for grid resolutions of 3.75 km andhigher, even when the input ice model is on a 1 km grid. Furthermore, we show that low mantle viscosities beneath the ASE lead to viscousdeformation that contributes to the instrumental record on decadal timescales and equals or dominates over elastic effects by the end of the 21stcentury. Our findings suggest that for the range of resolutions of 1.9–15 km that we considered, the error due to adopting a coarser gridin this region is negligible compared to the effect of neglecting viscous effects and the uncertainty in the adopted mantle viscosity structure.
more »
« less
Viscous Effects in the Solid Earth Response to Modern Antarctic Ice Mass Flux: Implications for Geodetic Studies of WAIS Stability in a Warming World
Abstract The West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) overlies a thin, variable-thickness lithosphere and a shallow upper-mantle region of laterally varying and, in some regions, very low (~1018 Pa s) viscosity. We explore the extent to which viscous effects may affect predictions of present-day geoid and crustal deformation rates resulting from Antarctic ice mass flux over the last quarter century and project these calculations into the next half century, using viscoelastic Earth models of varying complexity. Peak deformation rates at the end of a 25-yr simulation predicted with an elastic model underestimate analogous predictions that are based on a 3D viscoelastic Earth model (with minimum viscosity below West Antarctica of 1018 Pa s) by ~15 and ~3 mm yr−1 in the vertical and horizontal directions, respectively, at sites overlying low-viscosity mantle and close to high rates of ice mass flux. The discrepancy in uplift rate can be reduced by adopting 1D Earth models tuned to the regional average viscosity profile beneath West Antarctica. In the case of horizontal crustal rates, adopting 1D regional viscosity models is no more accurate in recovering predictions that are based on 3D viscosity models than calculations that assume a purely elastic Earth. The magnitude and relative contribution of viscous relaxation to crustal deformation rates will likely increase significantly in the next several decades, and the adoption of 3D viscoelastic Earth models in analyses of geodetic datasets [e.g., Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS); Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE)] will be required to accurately estimate the magnitude of Antarctic modern ice mass flux in the progressively warming world.
more »
« less
- Award ID(s):
- 1745074
- PAR ID:
- 10180987
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Journal of Climate
- Volume:
- 33
- Issue:
- 2
- ISSN:
- 0894-8755
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 443 to 459
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
More Like this
-
-
Abstract The redistribution of past and present ice and ocean loading on Earth's surface causes solid Earth deformation and geoid changes, known as glacial isostatic adjustment. The deformation is controlled by elastic and viscous material parameters, which are inhomogeneous in the Earth. We present a new viscoelastic solid Earth deformation model in ASPECT (Advanced Solver for Problems in Earth's ConvecTion): a modern, massively parallel, open‐source finite element code originally designed to simulate convection in the Earth's mantle. We show the performance of solid Earth deformation in ASPECT and compare solutions to TABOO, a semianalytical code, and Abaqus, a commercial finite element code. The maximum deformation and deformation rates using ASPECT agree within 2.6% for the average percentage difference with TABOO and Abaqus on glacial cycle (∼100 kyr) and contemporary ice melt (∼100 years) timescales. This gives confidence in the performance of our new solid Earth deformation model. We also demonstrate the computational efficiency of using adaptively refined meshes, which is a great advantage for solid Earth deformation modeling. Furthermore, we demonstrate the model performance in the presence of lateral viscosity variations in the upper mantle and report on parallel scalability of the code. This benchmarked code can now be used to investigate regional solid Earth deformation rates from ice age and contemporary ice melt. This is especially interesting for low‐viscosity regions in the upper mantle beneath Antarctica and Greenland, where it is not fully understood how ice age and contemporary ice melting contribute to geodetic measurements of solid Earth deformation.more » « less
-
SUMMARY Earth structure beneath the Antarctic exerts an important control on the evolution of the ice sheet. A range of geological and geophysical data sets indicate that this structure is complex, with the western sector characterized by a lithosphere of thickness ∼50–100 km and viscosities within the upper mantle that vary by 2–3 orders of magnitude. Recent analyses of uplift rates estimated using Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) observations have inferred 1-D viscosity profiles below West Antarctica discretized into a small set of layers within the upper mantle using forward modelling of glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA). It remains unclear, however, what these 1-D viscosity models represent in an area with complex 3-D mantle structure, and over what geographic length-scale they are applicable. Here, we explore this issue by repeating the same modelling procedure but applied to synthetic uplift rates computed using a realistic model of 3-D viscoelastic Earth structure inferred from seismic tomographic imaging of the region, a finite volume treatment of GIA that captures this complexity, and a loading history of Antarctic ice mass changes inferred over the period 1992–2017. We find differences of up to an order of magnitude between the best-fitting 1-D inferences and regionally averaged depth profiles through the 3-D viscosity field used to generate the synthetics. Additional calculations suggest that this level of disagreement is not systematically improved if one increases the number of observation sites adopted in the analysis. Moreover, the 1-D models inferred from such a procedure are non-unique, that is a broad range of viscosity profiles fit the synthetic uplift rates equally well as a consequence, in part, of correlations between the viscosity values within each layer. While the uplift rate at each GNSS site is sensitive to a unique subspace of the complex, 3-D viscosity field, additional analyses based on rates from subsets of proximal sites showed no consistent improvement in the level of bias in the 1-D inference. We also conclude that the broad, regional-scale uplift field generated with the 3-D model is poorly represented by a prediction based on the best-fitting 1-D Earth model. Future work analysing GNSS data should be extended to include horizontal rates and move towards inversions for 3-D structure that reflect the intrinsic 3-D resolving power of the data.more » « less
-
Abstract Seismic tomography models indicate highly variable Earth structure beneath Antarctica with anomalously low shallow mantle viscosities below West Antarctica. An improved projection of the contribution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to sea‐level change requires consideration of this complexity to precisely account for water expelled into the ocean from uplifting marine sectors. Here we build a high‐resolution 3‐D viscoelastic structure model based on recent inferences of seismic velocity heterogeneity below the continent. The model serves as input to a global‐scale sea‐level model that we use to investigate the influence of solid Earth deformation in Antarctica on future global mean sea‐level (GMSL) rise. Our calculations are based on a suite of ice mass projections generated with a range of climate forcings and suggest that water expulsion from the rebounding marine basins contributes 4%–16% and 7%–14% to the projected GMSL change at 2100 and 2500, respectively.more » « less
-
Abstract Recent ice-mass loss driven by warming along the Antarctic Peninsula has resulted in rapid changes in uplift rates across the region. Are such events only a function of recent warming? If not, does the Earth response to such events last long enough to be preserved in Holocene records of relative sea level (RSL), and thus have a bearing on global-scale glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) models (e.g. ICE-6G)? Answering such questions in Antarctica is hindered by the scarcity of RSL reconstructions within the region. Here, a new RSL reconstruction for Antarctica is presented based on beach ridges from Joinville Island on the Antarctic Peninsula. We find that RSL has fallen 4.9 ± 0.58 m over the past 3100 yr, and that the island experienced a significant increase in the rate of RSL fall from 1540 ± 125 cal. (calibrated) yr B.P. to 1320 ± 125 cal. yr B.P. This increase in the rate of RSL fall is likely due to the viscoelastic response of the solid Earth to terrestrial ice-mass loss from the Antarctic Peninsula, similar to the Earth response experienced after ice-mass loss following acceleration of glaciers behind the collapsed Larsen B ice shelf in 2002 C.E. Additionally, slower rates of beach-ridge progradation from 695 ± 190 cal. yr B.P. to 235 ± 175 cal. yr B.P. potentially reflect erosion of beach ridges from a RSL rise induced by a local glacial advance. The rapid response of the Earth to minor ice-mass changes recorded in the RSL record further supports recent assertions of a more responsive Earth to glacial unloading and at time scales relevant for GIA of Holocene and Pleistocene sea levels. Thus, current continental and global GIA models may not accurately capture the ice-mass changes of the Antarctic ice sheets at decadal and centennial time scales.more » « less
- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
-
Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0479.1
