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1. Resolving glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) in response to modern and future ice loss at marine grounding lines in West Antarctica

   https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2203-2022  

   Wan, Jeannette Xiu ; Gomez, Natalya ; Latychev, Konstantin ; Han, Holly Kyeore ( January 2022 , The Cryosphere)

   Abstract. Accurate glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) modelling in the cryosphere is required for interpreting satellite, geophysical and geological recordsand for assessing the feedbacks of Earth deformation and sea-level change on marine ice-sheet grounding lines. GIA modelling in areas of active ice lossin West Antarctica is particularly challenging because the ice is underlain by laterally varying mantle viscosities that are up to several orders ofmagnitude lower than the global average, leading to a faster and more localised response of the solid Earth to ongoing and future ice-sheet retreatand necessitating GIA models that incorporate 3-D viscoelastic Earth structure. Improvements to GIA models allow for computation of the viscoelasticresponse of the Earth to surface ice loading at sub-kilometre resolution, and ice-sheet models and observational products now provide the inputs toGIA models at comparably unprecedented detail. However, the resolution required to accurately capture GIA in models remains poorly understood, andhigh-resolution calculations come at heavy computational expense. We adopt a 3-D GIA model with a range of Earth structure models based on recentseismic tomography and geodetic data to perform a comprehensive analysis of the influence of grid resolution on predictions of GIA in the AmundsenSea Embayment (ASE) in West Antarctica. Through idealised sensitivity testing downmore »to sub-kilometre resolution with spatially isolated ice loadingchanges, we find that a grid resolution of ∼ 13 of the radius of the load or higher is required to accurately capture the elasticresponse of the Earth. However, when we consider more realistic, spatially coherent ice loss scenarios based on modern observational records andfuture ice-sheet model projections and adopt a viscoelastic Earth, we find that predicted deformation and sea-level change along the grounding lineconverge to within 5 % with grid resolutions of 7.5 km or higher, and to within 2 % for grid resolutions of 3.75 km andhigher, even when the input ice model is on a 1 km grid. Furthermore, we show that low mantle viscosities beneath the ASE lead to viscousdeformation that contributes to the instrumental record on decadal timescales and equals or dominates over elastic effects by the end of the 21stcentury. Our findings suggest that for the range of resolutions of 1.9–15 km that we considered, the error due to adopting a coarser gridin this region is negligible compared to the effect of neglecting viscous effects and the uncertainty in the adopted mantle viscosity structure.« less
2. The robustness of geodetically derived 1-D Antarctic viscosity models in the presence of complex 3-D viscoelastic Earth structure

   https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggac129  

   Powell, E. ; Latychev, K. ; Gomez, N. ; Mitrovica, J. X. ( March 2022 , Geophysical Journal International)

   Earth structure beneath the Antarctic exerts an important control on the evolution of the ice sheet. A range of geological and geophysical data sets indicate that this structure is complex, with the western sector characterized by a lithosphere of thickness ∼50–100 km and viscosities within the upper mantle that vary by 2–3 orders of magnitude. Recent analyses of uplift rates estimated using Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) observations have inferred 1-D viscosity profiles below West Antarctica discretized into a small set of layers within the upper mantle using forward modelling of glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA). It remains unclear, however, what these 1-D viscosity models represent in an area with complex 3-D mantle structure, and over what geographic length-scale they are applicable. Here, we explore this issue by repeating the same modelling procedure but applied to synthetic uplift rates computed using a realistic model of 3-D viscoelastic Earth structure inferred from seismic tomographic imaging of the region, a finite volume treatment of GIA that captures this complexity, and a loading history of Antarctic ice mass changes inferred over the period 1992–2017. We find differences of up to an order of magnitude between the best-fitting 1-D inferences and regionally averaged depth profilesmore »through the 3-D viscosity field used to generate the synthetics. Additional calculations suggest that this level of disagreement is not systematically improved if one increases the number of observation sites adopted in the analysis. Moreover, the 1-D models inferred from such a procedure are non-unique, that is a broad range of viscosity profiles fit the synthetic uplift rates equally well as a consequence, in part, of correlations between the viscosity values within each layer. While the uplift rate at each GNSS site is sensitive to a unique subspace of the complex, 3-D viscosity field, additional analyses based on rates from subsets of proximal sites showed no consistent improvement in the level of bias in the 1-D inference. We also conclude that the broad, regional-scale uplift field generated with the 3-D model is poorly represented by a prediction based on the best-fitting 1-D Earth model. Future work analysing GNSS data should be extended to include horizontal rates and move towards inversions for 3-D structure that reflect the intrinsic 3-D resolving power of the data.

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3. Rapid postglacial rebound amplifies global sea level rise following West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse

   https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abf7787  

   Pan, Linda ; Powell, Evelyn M. ; Latychev, Konstantin ; Mitrovica, Jerry X. ; Creveling, Jessica R. ; Gomez, Natalya ; Hoggard, Mark J. ; Clark, Peter U. ( April 2021 , Science Advances)

   Geodetic, seismic, and geological evidence indicates that West Antarctica is underlain by low-viscosity shallow mantle. Thus, as marine-based sectors of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) retreated during past interglacials, or will retreat in the future, exposed bedrock will rebound rapidly and flux meltwater out into the open ocean. Previous studies have suggested that this contribution to global mean sea level (GMSL) rise is small and occurs slowly. We challenge this notion using sea level predictions that incorporate both the outflux mechanism and complex three-dimensional viscoelastic mantle structure. In the case of the last interglacial, where the GMSL contribution from WAIS collapse is often cited as ~3 to 4 meters, the outflux mechanism contributes ~1 meter of additional GMSL change within ~1 thousand years of the collapse. Using a projection of future WAIS collapse, we also demonstrate that the outflux can substantially amplify GMSL rise estimates over the next century.
4. Mantle transition zone beneath West Antarctica: Expanded mapping in previously unstudied region

   Horton, A.C. ; Emry, E. ; Hansen, S.E. ; van Wijk, J. ; O'Donnell, J.P. ; Brisbourne, A. ; Stuart, G.W. ; Anandakrishnan, S. ; Aster, R.C. ; Huerta, A.D. ; et al ( December 2018 , American Geophysical Union)

   With the ongoing discussion of Earth structure under West Antarctica and how it relates to the extension and volcanism of the area, we explore the possibility of a hydrated or thermally perturbed mantle underneath the region. Using P-wave receiver functions, we focus on the Mantle Transition Zone (MTZ) and how its thickness fluctuates from the global average (240-260 km). Prior studies have explored the West Antarctic regions of Marie Byrd Land and the West Antarctic Rift, but we expand this to include ~3-5 years of recent, additional seismic data from the Amundsen Sea and Pine Island Bay regions. Several years of additional data from the Ronne-Fichtner Ice Shelf, Ellsworth Land, and Marie Byrd Land regions will help provide a more complete picture of the mantle transition zone. Data for this study was obtained from IRIS for earthquakes of a 5.5 magnitude or greater. We use an iterative, time domain deconvolution method, filtered with Gaussian widths of 0.5, 0.75, and 1.0. All events within their respective Gaussian filter have undergone quality check by removing waveforms that have lower than 85% fit and visually checking for clear outliers. We migrate the receiver functions to depth and stack, using both single station stackingmore »and common conversion point (CCP) stacking. We migrate the CCP stacks assuming both 1D (AK-135) and 3D velocity models throughout the region. Preliminary results from single-station stacks beneath the Thurston Island and Amundsen Sea regions suggest that the MTZ thickness is similar to the global average and the depth to the transition zone appears to be depressed, with average transition zone boundaries appearing around 430 and 680 km. If the MTZ is thinner than the global average, it may be an indication for high temperature thermal anomalies or a plume under West Antarctica that may help explain the history of extension and uplift there. These results could be useful for glacial isostatic adjustment and/or geothermal heat flux models that attempt to understand ice sheet history and stability.« less
5. Topographic evolution of WAIS subglacial bedrock: Insights from low-temperature thermochronology and thermo-kinematic modeling in Marie Byrd Land, West Antarctica

   Taylor, Jennifer ; Swope, Fiona ; Siddoway, Christine ; Thomson, Stuart ; and Teyssier, Christian ( September 2022 , 29th West Antarctic Ice Sheet Workshop)

   Bedrock topography is a key boundary condition for ice sheet modeling, and determining changes in subglacial topography through time can provide insight into the timing of ice sheet development, the magnitude of glacial erosion, and the co-development of glaciers and glacial topography. West Antarctica hosts an unusually high geothermal gradient supported by hot, low-viscosity mantle which likely enhanced the lithospheric response to West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) cycles of growth and increased the sensitivity of thermochronometers to landscape evolution on million-year timescales. Thus, a valuable record of glacial landscape change might be recovered from apatite fission track [AFT 80-130°C range] and (U-Th)/He [AHe; 50-90°C] dating, provided that landscape evolution can be distinguished from tectonic signals, including the effects of faults. This study utilizes AFT-AHe thermochronology and thermo-kinematic Pecube modeling to investigate interactions between the hot geotherm, glacial erosion, and inferred crustal structures in the Ford Ranges and the DeVicq Glacier trough in western and central Marie Byrd Land (MBL), respectively. The Ford Ranges host glacial troughs (up to 3km relief) dissecting a low-relief erosional surface. Previous work suggests a majority of bedrock exhumation and cooling occurred at/by 80 Ma. However, new data hint at renewed exhumation linked to glacial incisionmore »since WAIS formation at 34 or 20 Ma. Prior (U-Th)/He zircon dates from exposures of crystalline bedrock span 90 – 67 Ma. New AHe bedrock dates are 41 to 26 Ma, while two glacial erratics (presumed to be eroded from walls or floor of glacial troughs) yielded AHe dates of 37 Ma and 16 Ma. Initial modeling results suggest a tectonic boundary between the Ford Ranges and Edward VII Peninsula separating regions with distinct exhumation histories. The boundary may cause differential WAIS incision at 34 or 20 Ma, a possibility being investigated with new models. The DeVicq Glacier trough (>3.5km relief) coincides with a prominent crustal lineament but lacks temperature-time information compared to other regions. The crustal structure may have accommodated motion between elevated central MBL and the subdued crust of the Ford Ranges. Here, owing to the lack of onshore non-volcanic bedrock exposure, we have employed AHe and AFT dating of glacial sediment marine core samples offshore of the DeVicq Glacier to investigate the timing and rates of exhumation of the bedrock carved by the DeVicq trough, with initial results revealing detrital AHe ages as young as 24 Ma. Our new Pecube models test a series of thermal, tectonic, and landscape evolution scenarios against a suite of thermochronologic data, allowing us to assess the timing of glacial incision and WAIS initiation in the Ford Ranges, and to seek evidence of an inferred tectonic boundary at DeVicq Trough. Modeling efforts will be aided by new AHe and AFT analyses from ongoing work. These models combine topographic, tectonic, thermal, and key thermochronologic datasets to produce new insight into the unique cryosphere-lithosphere interactions affecting landscape change in West Antarctica.« less