Abstract Changes in land use and land cover (LULC) due to agricultural expansion, commercial land management and other human‐driven modifications significantly influence the ecology of pathogens and vectors. This underscores the urgent need to understand how these respond to rapid and dynamic land use changes in these ecosystems and, critically, to identify strategies for mitigating their impacts.In tropical Central and South America, palm trees serve as primary habitats forRhodniuskissing bugs, vectors ofTrypanosoma cruzi, the etiologic agent of Chagas disease. This study investigates how LULC, weather and traits of the palmAttalea butyraceapredict the occurrence and infection ofRhodnius pallescens, integrating field data collection, molecular detection and spatial and hierarchical analyses across a rural landscape in Panama.Rhodnius pallescenswere collected from 46 palms in 11 communities with different landscape compositions including native forests, grasslands, successional forests and artificial structures. Robust occupancy modelling using land cover data at 10 m2resolution revealed that successional forest cover at 300 m spatial scale predicted greater occurrence ofR. pallescens, whereas native forest predicted lower occurrence. Quadratic models outperformed linear models, indicating occupancy peaks at intermediate land covers and palm tree traits.Real‐time PCR assays detectedTrypanosomainfections in 70% ofR. pallescensacross communities. Spatial autocorrelation analyses showed significant spatial clustering forT. cruzibut not forTrypanosoma rangeli. We used generalized additive mixed models to assess the influence of palm‐level and landscape‐scale attributes on parasite infection and identified significant nonlinear positive associations betweenT.cruziinfection and native forest and grassland, with high predictive accuracy (AUC = 0.90).Synthesis and applications. Findings here show that successional forest predicts greater kissing bug infestation risk in palm trees, whereas native forest predicts lower kissing bug occurrence but greater infection withT. cruzi. These insights can guide land use planning towards vegetation management practices that help minimizeT. cruzitransmission risks for rural communities. Importantly, vector surveillance should target forest‐grassland ecotones and consider forest successional stages near settlements, with intensified monitoring after disturbances; this approach is applicable to other vector‐borne pathogen systems shaped by land use change.
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Modelling the dynamics of Trypanosoma rangeli and triatomine bug with logistic growth of vector and systemic transmission
In this paper, an insect-parasite-host model with logistic growth of triatomine bugs is formulated to study the transmission between hosts and vectors of the Chagas disease by using dynamical system approach. We derive the basic reproduction numbers for triatomine bugs and Trypanosoma rangeli as two thresholds. The local and global stability of the vector-free equilibrium, parasite-free equilibrium and parasite-positive equilibrium is investigated through the derived two thresholds. Forward bifurcation, saddle-node bifurcation and Hopf bifurcation are proved analytically and illustrated numerically. We show that the model can lose the stability of the vector-free equilibrium and exhibit a supercritical Hopf bifurcation, indicating the occurrence of a stable limit cycle. We also find it unlikely to have backward bifurcation and Bogdanov-Takens bifurcation of the parasite-positive equilibrium. However, the sustained oscillations of infected vector population suggest that Trypanosoma rangeli will persist in all the populations, posing a significant challenge for the prevention and control of Chagas disease.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1950254
- PAR ID:
- 10350859
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering
- Volume:
- 19
- Issue:
- 8
- ISSN:
- 1551-0018
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 8452 to 8478
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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