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1. Mapping the Vulnerability of Boreal Permafrost in Central Alaska in Relation to Thaw Rate, Ground Ice, and Thermokarst Development

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JF008030  

   Jorgenson, M Torre; Douglas, Thomas A; Shur, Yuri L; Kanevskiy, Mikhail Z (June 2025, Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface)

   Permafrost roughly affects half of the boreal region in Alaska and varies greatly in its thermo‐physical properties and genesis. In boreal ecosystems, permafrost formation and degradation respond to complex interactions among climate, topography, hydrology, soils, vegetation, and disturbance. We synthesized data on soil thermal conditions and permafrost characteristics to assess current permafrost conditions in central Alaska, and classified and mapped soil landscapes vulnerable to future thaw and thermokarst development. Permafrost soil properties at 160 sites ranged from rocky soils in hillslope colluvium and glacial till, to silty loess, to thick peats on abandoned floodplains and bogs, across 64 geomorphic units. Ground‐ice contents (% moisture) varied greatly across geomorphic units. Mean annual ground temperatures at ∼1 m depth varied 12.5°C across 77 sites with most permafrost near thawing or actively thawing. To assess the vulnerability of permafrost to climate variability and disturbance, we differentiated permafrost responses in terms of rate of thaw, potential thaw settlement, and thermokarst development. Using a rule‐based model that uses geomorphic units for spatial extrapolation at the landscape scale, we mapped 10 vulnerability classes across three areas in central Alaska ranging from high potential settlement/low thaw rate in extremely ice‐rich loess to low potential settlement/high thaw rate in rocky hillslope colluvium. Permafrost degradation is expected to result in 10 thermokarst landform types. Vulnerability classes corresponded to thermokarst features that developed in response to past climates. Differing patterns in permafrost vulnerability have large implications for ecosystem trajectories, land use, and infrastructure damage from permafrost thaw. 

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2. Persistent net release of carbon dioxide and methane from an Alaskan lowland boreal peatland complex

   https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.17139  

   Euskirchen, Eugénie S.; Edgar, Colin W.; Kane, Evan S.; Waldrop, Mark P.; Neumann, Rebecca B.; Manies, Kristen L.; Douglas, Thomas A.; Dieleman, Catherine; Jones, Miriam C.; Turetsky, Merritt R. (January 2024, Global Change Biology)

   Abstract Permafrost degradation in peatlands is altering vegetation and soil properties and impacting net carbon storage. We studied four adjacent sites in Alaska with varied permafrost regimes, including a black spruce forest on a peat plateau with permafrost, two collapse scar bogs of different ages formed following thermokarst, and a rich fen without permafrost. Measurements included year‐round eddy covariance estimates of net carbon dioxide (CO₂), mid‐April to October methane (CH₄) emissions, and environmental variables. From 2011 to 2022, annual rainfall was above the historical average, snow water equivalent increased, and snow‐season duration shortened due to later snow return. Seasonally thawed active layer depths also increased. During this period, all ecosystems acted as slight annual sources of CO₂(13–59 g C m⁻² year⁻¹) and stronger sources of CH₄(11–14 g CH₄ m⁻²from ~April to October). The interannual variability of net ecosystem exchange was high, approximately ±100 g C m⁻² year⁻¹, or twice what has been previously reported across other boreal sites. Net CO₂release was positively related to increased summer rainfall and winter snow water equivalent and later snow return. Controls over CH₄emissions were related to increased soil moisture and inundation status. The dominant emitter of carbon was the rich fen, which, in addition to being a source of CO₂, was also the largest CH₄emitter. These results suggest that the future carbon‐source strength of boreal lowlands in Interior Alaska may be determined by the area occupied by minerotrophic fens, which are expected to become more abundant as permafrost thaw increases hydrologic connectivity. Since our measurements occur within close proximity of each other (≤1 km²), this study also has implications for the spatial scale and data used in benchmarking carbon cycle models and emphasizes the necessity of long‐term measurements to identify carbon cycle process changes in a warming climate. 

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3. Shortened Fire Intervals Stimulate Carbon Losses from Heterotrophic Respiration and Reduce Understorey Plant Productivity in Boreal Forests

   https://doi.org/10.1007/s10021-022-00761-w  

   Shabaga, Jason A.; Bracho, Rosvel; Klockow, Paul A.; Lucash, Melissa S.; Vogel, Jason G. (May 2022, Ecosystems)

   Abstract Fire frequency is increasing with climate warming in the boreal regions of interior Alaska, with short fire return intervals (< 50 years) becoming more common. Recent studies suggest these “reburns” will reduce the insulating surface organic layer (SOL) and seedbanks, inhibiting black spruce regeneration and increasing deciduous cover. These changes are projected to amplify soil warming, increasing mineral soil organic carbon (SOC) decomposition rates, and impair re-establishment of understorey vegetation and the SOL. We examined how reburns changed soil temperature, heterotrophic soil respiration (RH), and understorey gross primary production (GPP), and related these to shifts in vegetation composition and SOL depths. Two distinct burn complexes previously covered by spruce were measured; both included areas burned 1x, 2x, and 3x over 60 years and mature (≈ 90 year old) spruce forests underlain by permafrost. A 2.7 °C increase in annual near-surface soil temperatures from 1x to 3x burns was correlated with a decrease in SOL depths and a 1.9 Mg C ha −1 increase in annual RH efflux. However, near-surface soil warming accounted for ≤ 23% of higher RH efflux; increases in deciduous overstorey vegetation and root biomass with reburning better correlated with RH than soil temperature. Reburning also warmed deeper soils and reduced the biomass and GPP of understory plants, lessening their potential to offset elevated RH and contribute to SOL development. This suggests that reburning led to losses of mineral SOC previously stored in permafrost due to warming soils and changes in vegetation composition, illustrating how burn frequency creates pathways for accelerated regional C loss. 

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4. Alaska Peatland Map (2019-2021)

   https://doi.org/10.18739/A2NK3667M  

   Lara, Mark J.; Michaelides, Roger; Anderson, Duncan; Chen, Wenqu; Hall, Emma; Ludden, Caroline; Schore, Aiden; Mishra, Umakant; Scott, Sarah (January 2023, NSF Arctic Data Center)

   Peatlands cover 3% of the global land surface, yet store 25% of the world’s soil organic carbon. These organic-rich soils are widespread across permafrost regions, representing nearly 18% of land surface and storing between 500 and 600 petagrams of carbon (PgC). Peat (i.e., partially decomposed thick organic layers) accumulates due to the imbalance between plant production and decomposition often within saturated, nutrient deficient, and acidic soils, which limit decomposition. As warmer and drier conditions become more prevalent across northern ecosystems, the vulnerability of peatland soils may increase with the susceptibility of peat-fire ignitions, yet the distribution of peatlands across Alaska remains uncertain. Here we develop a new high-resolution (20 meter (m) resolution) wall-to-wall ~1.5 million square kilometer (km2) peatland map of Alaska, using a combination of Sentinel-1 (Dual-polarized Synthetic Aperture Radar), Sentinel-2 (Multi-Spectral Imager), and derivatives from the Arctic Digital Elevation Model (ArcticDEM). Machine learning classifiers were trained and tested using peat cores, ground observations, and sub-meter resolution image interpretation, which was spatially constrained by a peatland suitability model that described the extent of terrain suitable for peat accumulation. This product identifies peatlands in Polar, Boreal, and Maritime ecoregions in Alaska to cover 26,842 (4.6%), 69,783 (10.4%), and 13,506 (5.3%) km2, respectively. 

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5. Decadal impacts of wildfire fuel reduction treatments on ecosystem characteristics and fire behavior in alaskan boreal forests

   https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2023.121347  

   Boyd, Melissa A.; Walker, Xanthe J.; Barnes, Jennifer; Celis, Gerardo; Goetz, Scott J.; Johnstone, Jill F.; Link, Nicholas T.; Melvin, April M.; Saperstein, Lisa; Schuur, Edward A.G.; et al (October 2023, Forest Ecology and Management)

   Wildfire activity is increasing in boreal forests as climate warms and dries, increasing risks to rural and urban communities. In black spruce forests of Interior Alaska, fuel reduction treatments are used to create a defensible space for fire suppression and slow fire spread. These treatments introduce novel disturbance characteristics, making longer-term outcomes on ecosystem structure and wildfire risk reduction uncertain. We remeasured a network of sites where fuels were reduced through hand thinning or mechanical shearblading in Interior Alaska to assess how successional trajectories of tree dominance, understory composition, and permafrost change over ∼ 20 years after treatment. We also assessed if these fuel reduction treatments reduce modeled surface rate of fire spread (ROS), flame length, and fireline intensity relative to an untreated black spruce stand, and if surface fire behavior changes over time. In thinned areas, soil organic layer (SOL) disturbance promoted tree seedling recruitment but did not change over time. In shearbladed sites, by contrast, both conifer and broad-leaved deciduous seedling density increased over time and deciduous seedlings were 20 times more abundant than spruce. Thaw depth increased over time in both treatments and was greatest in shearbladed sites with a thin SOL. Understory composition was not altered by thinning but in shearbladed treatments shifted from forbs and horsetail to tall deciduous shrubs and grasses over time. Modeled surface fire behavior was constant in shearbladed sites. This finding is inconsistent with expert opinion, highlighting the need for additional fuels-specific data to capture the changing vegetation structure. Treatment effectiveness at reducing modeled surface ROS, flame length, and fireline intensity depended on the fuel model used for an untreated black spruce stand, pointing to uncertainties about the efficacy of these treatments at mitigating surface fire behavior. Overall, we show that fuel reduction treatments can promote low flammability, deciduous tree dominated successional trajectories, and that shearblading has strong effects on understory composition and permafrost degradation that persist for nearly two decades after disturbance. Such factors need to be considered to enhance the design, management, and predictions of fire behavior in these treatments. 

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