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Abstract Observational data collection is extremely hazardous in supercell storm environments, which makes for a scarcity of data used for evaluating the storm-scale guidance from convection allowing models (CAMs) like the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Warn-on-Forecast System (WoFS). The Targeted Observations with UAS and Radar of Supercells (TORUS) 2019 field mission provided a rare opportunity to not only collect these observations, but to do so with advanced technology: vertically pointing Doppler lidar. One standing question for WoFS is how the system forecasts the feedback between supercells and their near-storm environment. The lidar can observe vertical profiles of wind over time, creating unique datasets to compare to WoFS kinematic predictions in rapidly evolving severe weather environments. Mobile radiosonde data are also presented to provide a thermodynamic comparison. The five lidar deployments (three of which observed tornadic supercells) analyzed show WoFS accurately predicted general kinematic trends in the inflow environment; however, the predicted feedback between the supercell and its environment, which resulted in enhanced inflow and larger storm-relative helicity (SRH), were muted relative to observations. The radiosonde observations reveal an overprediction of CAPE in WoFS forecasts, both in the near and far field, with an inverse relationship between the CAPE errors and distance from the storm. Significance Statement It is difficult to evaluate the accuracy of weather prediction model forecasts of severe thunderstorms because observations are rarely available near the storms. However, the TORUS 2019 field experiment collected multiple specialized observations in the near-storm environment of supercells, which are compared to the same near-storm environments predicted by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Warn-on-Forecast System (WoFS) to gauge its performance. Unique to this study is the use of mobile Doppler lidar observations in the evaluation; lidar can retrieve the horizontal winds in the few kilometers above ground on time scales of a few minutes. Using lidar and radiosonde observations in the near-storm environment of three tornadic supercells, we find that WoFS generally predicts the expected trends in the evolution of the near-storm wind profile, but the response is muted compared to observations. We also find an inverse relationship of errors in instability to distance from the storm. These results can aid model developers in refining model physics to better predict severe storms.
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Diagnosing Supercell Environments: A Machine Learning Approach
Abstract The importance of discriminating between environments supportive of supercell thunderstorms and those that are not supportive is widely recognized due to significant hazards associated with supercell storms. Previous research has led to forecast indices such as the energy helicity index and the supercell composite parameter to aid supercell forecasts. In this study three machine learning models are developed to identify environments supportive of supercells: a support vector machine, an artificial neural network, and an ensemble of gradient boosted trees. These models are trained and tested using a sample of over 1000 Rapid Update Cycle version 2 (RUC-2) model soundings from near-storm environments of both supercell and nonsupercell storms. Results show that all three machine learning models outperform classifications using either the energy helicity index or supercell composite parameter by a statistically significant margin. Using several model interpretability methods, it is concluded that generally speaking the relationships learned by the machine learning models are physically reasonable. These findings further illustrate the potential utility of machine learning–based forecast tools for severe storm forecasting. Significance Statement Supercell thunderstorms are a type of thunderstorm that are important to forecast because they produce more tornadoes, hail, and wind gusts compared to other types of thunderstorms. This study uses machine learning to create models that predict if a supercell thunderstorm or nonsupercell thunderstorm is favored for a given environment. These models outperform current methods of assessing if a storm that forms will be a supercell. Using these models as guidance forecasters can better understand and predict if atmospheric conditions are favorable for the development of supercell thunderstorms. Improving forecasts of supercell thunderstorms using machine learning methods like those used in this study has the potential to limit the economic and societal impacts of these storms.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1824649
- PAR ID:
- 10354601
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Weather and Forecasting
- Volume:
- 37
- Issue:
- 5
- ISSN:
- 0882-8156
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 771 to 785
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-21-0098.1
