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Vulnerability of marine species to climate change (including ocean acidification, deoxygenation, and associated changes in food supply) depends on species’ ecological and biological characteristics. Most existing assessments focus on coastal species but systematic analysis of climate vulnerability for the deep sea is lacking. Here, we combine a fuzzy logic expert system with species biogeographical data to assess the risks of climate impacts to the population viability of 32 species of exploited demersal deep-sea species across the global ocean. Climatic hazards are projected to emerge from historical variabilities in all the recorded habitats of the studied species by the mid-twenty-first century. Species that are both at very high risk of climate impacts and highly vulnerable to fishing include Antarctic toothfish (Dissostichus mawsoni), rose fish (Sebastes norvegicus), roughhead grenadier (Macrourus berglax), Baird’s slickhead (Alepocephalus bairdii), cusk (Brosme brosme), and Portuguese dogfish (Centroscymnus coelepis). Most exploited deep-sea fishes are likely to be at higher risk of local, or even global, extinction than previously assessed because of their high vulnerability to both climate change and fishing. Spatially, a high concentration of deep-sea species that are climate vulnerable is predicted in the northern Atlantic Ocean and the Indo-Pacific region. Aligning carbon mitigation with improved fisheries management offers opportunities for overall risk reduction in the coming decades. Regional fisheries management organizations (RFMOs) have an obligation to incorporate climate change in their deliberations. In addition, deep-sea areas that are not currently managed by RFMOs should be included in existing or new international governance institutions or arrangements.
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Productivity and Change in Fish and Squid in the Southern Ocean
Southern Ocean ecosystems are globally important and vulnerable to global drivers of change, yet they remain challenging to study. Fish and squid make up a significant portion of the biomass within the Southern Ocean, filling key roles in food webs from forage to mid-trophic species and top predators. They comprise a diverse array of species uniquely adapted to the extreme habitats of the region. Adaptations such as antifreeze glycoproteins, lipid-retention, extended larval phases, delayed senescence, and energy-conserving life strategies equip Antarctic fish and squid to withstand the dark winters and yearlong subzero temperatures experienced in much of the Southern Ocean. In addition to krill exploitation, the comparatively high commercial value of Antarctic fish, particularly the lucrative toothfish, drives fisheries interests, which has included illegal fishing. Uncertainty about the population dynamics of target species and ecosystem structure and function more broadly has necessitated a precautionary, ecosystem approach to managing these stocks and enabling the recovery of depleted species. Fisheries currently remain the major local driver of change in Southern Ocean fish productivity, but global climate change presents an even greater challenge to assessing future changes. Parts of the Southern Ocean are experiencing ocean-warming, such as the West Antarctic Peninsula, while other areas, such as the Ross Sea shelf, have undergone cooling in recent years. These trends are expected to result in a redistribution of species based on their tolerances to different temperature regimes. Climate variability may impair the migratory response of these species to environmental change, while imposing increased pressures on recruitment. Fisheries and climate change, coupled with related local and global drivers such as pollution and sea ice change, have the potential to produce synergistic impacts that compound the risks to Antarctic fish and squid species. The uncertainty surrounding how different species will respond to these challenges, given their varying life histories, environmental dependencies, and resiliencies, necessitates regular assessment to inform conservation and management decisions. Urgent attention is needed to determine whether the current management strategies are suitably precautionary to achieve conservation objectives in light of the impending changes to the ecosystem.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1947040
- PAR ID:
- 10358557
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution
- Volume:
- 9
- ISSN:
- 2296-701X
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.3389/fevo.2021.624918
