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1. Approaches to macroevolution: 2. Sorting of variation, some overarching issues, and general conclusions.

   Jablonski, D. ( July 2017 , Evolutionary biology)

   Abstract Approaches to macroevolution require integration of its two fundamental components, within a hierarchical framework. Following a companion paper on the origin of variation, I here discuss sorting within an evolutionary hierarchy. Species sorting—sometimes termed species selection in the broad sense, meaning differential origination and extinction owing to intrinsic biological properties—can be split into strict-sense species selection, in which rate differentials are governed by emergent, species-level traits such as geographic range size, and effect macroevolution, in which rates are governed by organism-level traits such as body size; both processes can create hitchhiking effects, indirectly causing the proliferation or decline of other traits. Several methods can operationalize the concept of emergence, so that rigorous separation of these processes is increasingly feasible. A macroevolutionary tradeoff, underlain by the intrinsic traits that influence evolutionary dynamics, causes speciation and extinction rates to covary in many clades, resulting in evolutionary volatility of some clades and more subdued behavior of others; the few clades that break the tradeoff can achieve especially prolific diversification. In addition to intrinsic biological traits at multiple levels, extrinsic events can drive the waxing and waning of clades, and the interaction of traits and events are difficult but important to disentangle. Evolutionarymore »trends can arise in many ways, and at any hierarchical level; descriptive models can be fitted to clade trajectories in phenotypic or functional spaces, but they may not be diagnostic regarding processes, and close attention must be paid to both leading and trailingedges of apparent trends. Biotic interactions can have negative or positive effects on taxonomic diversity within a clade, but cannot be readily extrapolated from the nature of such interactions at the organismic level. The relationships among macroevolutionary currencies through time (taxonomic richness, morphologic disparity, functional variety) are crucial for understanding the nature of evolutionary diversification. A novel approach to diversity-disparity analysis shows that taxonomic diversifications can lag behind, occur in concert with, or precede, increases in disparity. Some overarching issues relating to both the origin and sorting of clades and phenotypes include the macroevolutionary role of mass extinctions, the potential differences between plant and animal macroevolution, whether macroevolutionary processes have changed through geologic time, and the growing human impact on present-day macroevolution. Many challenges remain, but progress is being made on two of the key ones: (a) the integration of variation-generating mechanisms and the multilevel sorting processes that act on that variation, and (b) the integration of paleontological and neontological approaches to historical biology.« less
2. Calibrating phylogenies assuming bifurcation or budding alters inferred macroevolutionary dynamics in a densely sampled phylogeny of bivalve families

   https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2021.2178  

   Crouch, Nicholas M. ; Edie, Stewart M. ; Collins, Katie S. ; Bieler, Rüdiger ; Jablonski, David ( December 2021 , Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences)

   Analyses of evolutionary dynamics depend on how phylogenetic data are time-scaled. Most analyses of extant taxa assume a purely bifurcating model, where nodes are calibrated using the daughter lineage with the older first occurrence in the fossil record. This contrasts with budding, where nodes are calibrated using the younger first occurrence. Here, we use the extensive fossil record of bivalve molluscs for a large-scale evaluation of how branching models affect macroevolutionary analyses. We time-calibrated 91% of nodes, ranging in age from 2.59 to 485 Ma, in a phylogeny of 97 extant bivalve families. Allowing budding-based calibrations minimizes conflict between the tree and observed fossil record, and reduces the summed duration of inferred ‘ghost lineages’ from 6.76 billion years (Gyr; bifurcating model) to 1.00 Gyr (budding). Adding 31 extinct paraphyletic families raises ghost lineage totals to 7.86 Gyr (bifurcating) and 1.92 Gyr (budding), but incorporates more information to date divergences between lineages. Macroevolutionary analyses under a bifurcating model conflict with other palaeontological evidence on the magnitude of the end-Palaeozoic extinction, and strongly reduce Cenozoic diversification. Consideration of different branching models is essential when node-calibrating phylogenies, and for a major clade with a robust fossil record, a budding model appears more appropriate.
3. Morphological disparity across the synapsid forelimb: sub-order-level patterns across 80 million years of synapsid evolution

   Lungmus, Jacqueline A. Angielczyk ( October 2018 , Society of Vertebrate Paleontology 2018 Meeting Program and Abstracts)

   Synapsid evolution can be characterized by three successive radiations: the Permo– Carboniferous pelycosaurs, the Permo–Triassic Therapsida, and the Triassic Eucynodontia. Previous geometric morphometric research at the clade level revealed a continuous increase in humeral morphological disparity in Therapsida, in contrast to their pelycosaur forebearers. Here we present associated data on ulnar morphological disparity, as well an an overall taxonomic expansion of the analyses. This increase in sample size brings the dataset to 765 specimens from which functional units across the forelimb were analyzed. Further, it allows for a more detailed discussion of variance within nearly every major group of early Synapsida, as well as across 80 million years of geologic history. Groups were analyzed for Procrustes variance in 5 million year time bins from 305–225 Mya (Carboniferous–Triassic). In all analyzed functional units—the proximal humerus, distal humerus, and proximal elbow—within group disparity is higher in therapsid families than in pelycosaur families. In addition, therapsid family level disparity is much more variable between groups and across time. Ulnar variance values are higher than humeral values for the entire study period. Procrustes variance for the forelimb decreases across the End Permian Mass Extinction Event in the major therapsid groups that survived it— Anomodontiamore »and Cynodontia. Macroevolutionary changes observed in Synapsida have historically been associated with ecological diversification. Cynodontia and Anomodontia have the highest variance in Therapsida, while Gorgonopsia has the lowest. The high values in Anomodontia, as one of the most taxonomically and ecological diverse clades of Therapsida, suggests that forelimb variance is linked to aspects of ecological diversification. Further, within pelycosaurs Sphenacodontidae has the lowest variance through time, while Ophiacodontidae has the highest. The finding of uniquely high variance levels in Ophiacodontidae, hypothesized by some to be semi-acquatic, is suggestive of a potentially unique forelimb ecomorphology. This research provides evidence that along with major shifts in forelimb morphology, within-family disparity dynamics may have been critical to the evolutionary success of individual synapsid sub-orders.« less
4. Ecological and Phenotypic Diversification after a Continental Invasion in Neotropical Freshwater Stingrays

   https://doi.org/10.1093/icb/icac019  

   Kolmann, M A ; Marques, F P ; Weaver, J C ; Dean, M N ; Fontenelle, J P ; Lovejoy, N R ( April 2022 , Integrative and Comparative Biology)

   Abstract Habitat transitions are key potential explanations for why some lineages have diversified and others have not—from Anolis lizards to Darwin's finches. The ecological ramifications of marine-to-freshwater transitions for fishes suggest evolutionary contingency: some lineages maintain their ancestral niches in novel habitats (niche conservatism), whereas others alter their ecological role. However, few studies have considered phenotypic, ecological, and lineage diversification concurrently to explore this issue. Here, we investigated the macroevolutionary history of the taxonomically and ecologically diverse Neotropical freshwater river rays (subfamily Potamotrygoninae), which invaded and diversified in the Amazon and other South American rivers during the late Oligocene to early Miocene. We generated a time-calibrated, multi-gene phylogeny for Potamotrygoninae and reconstructed evolutionary patterns of diet specialization. We measured functional morphological traits relevant for feeding and used comparative phylogenetic methods to examine how feeding morphology diversified over time. Potamotrygonine trophic and phenotypic diversity are evenly partitioned (non-overlapping) among internal clades for most of their history, until 20–16 mya, when more recent diversification suggests increasing overlap among phenotypes. Specialized piscivores (Heliotrygon and Paratrygon) evolved early in the history of freshwater stingrays, while later trophic specialization (molluscivory, insectivory, and crustacivory) evolved in the genus Potamotrygon. Potamotrygonins demonstrate ecological niche lability in dietsmore »and feeding apparatus; however, diversification has mostly been a gradual process through time. We suggest that competition is unlikely to have limited the potamotrygonine invasion and diversification in South America.« less
5. Approaches to macroevolution: 1. General concepts and origin of variation.

   Jablonski, D. ( July 2017 , Evolutionary biology)

   Abstract Approaches to macroevolution require integration of its two fundamental components, i.e. the origin and the sorting of variation, in a hierarchical framework. Macroevolution occurs in multiple currencies that are only loosely correlated, notably taxonomic diversity, morphological disparity, and functional variety. The origin of variation within this conceptual framework is increasingly understood in developmental terms, with the semi-hierarchical structure of gene regulatory networks (GRNs, used here in a broad sense incorporating not just the genetic circuitry per se but the factors controlling the timing and location of gene expression and repression), the non-linear relation between magnitude of genetic change and the phenotypic results, the evolutionary potential of co-opting existing GRNs, and developmental responsiveness to nongenetic signals (i.e. epigenetics and plasticity), all requiring modification of standard microevolutionary models, and rendering difficult any simple definition of evolutionary novelty. The developmental factors underlying macroevolution create anisotropic probabilities—i.e., an uneven density distribution—of evolutionary change around any given phenotypic starting point, and the potential for coordinated changes among traits that can accommodate change via epigenetic mechanisms. From this standpoint, “punctuated equilibrium” and “phyletic gradualism” simply represent two cells in a matrix of evolutionary models of phenotypic change, and the origin of trends and evolutionary noveltymore »are not simply functions of ecological opportunity. Over long timescales, contingency becomes especiallyimportant, and can be viewed in terms of macroevolutionary lags (the temporal separation between the origin of a trait or clade and subsequent diversification); such lags can arise by several mechanisms: as geological or phylogenetic artifacts, or when diversifications require synergistic interactions among traits, or between traits and external events. The temporal and spatial patterns of the origins of evolutionary novelties are a challenge to macroevolutionary theory; individual events can be described retrospectively, but a general model relating development, genetics, and ecology is needed. An accompanying paper (Jablonski in Evol Biol 2017) reviews diversity dynamics and the sorting of variation, with some general conclusions.« less