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Abstract The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) consists of a tropical convective region that propagates eastward through the Indo‐Pacific warm pool. Decadal climate variability alters sea surface temperature patterns, affecting the MJO's basic state. This investigation examines the impact of projected SST and moisture pattern changes over the 21st Century on MJO precipitation and zonal wind amplitude changes in 80 members of the Community Earth System Model 2 Large Ensemble in the SSP370 radiative forcing scenario, each with its unique representation of decadal variability. Ensemble members with strongest MJO precipitation change in a given 20‐year period have a more El Niño‐like east Pacific warming pattern. MJO amplitude increases for east Pacific warming because of a strengthened meridional moisture gradient that supports MJO eastward propagation. A stronger vertical moisture gradient also exists for ensemble members with preferential east Pacific warming, which supports a stronger MJO under moisture mode theory.
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Changes to the Madden‐Julian Oscillation in Coupled and Uncoupled Aquaplanet Simulations With 4xCO 2
Abstract The impacts of rising carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration and ocean feedbacks on the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) are investigated with the Community Atmospheric Model Version 5 (CAM5) in an idealized aquaplanet configuration. The climate response associated with quadrupled CO2concentrations and sea surface temperature (SST) warming are examined in both the uncoupled CAM5 and a version coupled to a slab ocean model. Increasing CO2concentrations while holding SST fixed produces only small impacts to MJO characteristics, while the SST change resulting from increased CO2concentrations produces a significant increase in MJO precipitation anomaly amplitude but smaller increase in MJO circulation anomaly amplitude, consistent with previous studies. MJO propagation speed increases in both coupled simulations with quadrupling of CO2and uncoupled simulations with the same climatological surface temperature warming imposed, although propagation speed is increased more with coupling. While climatological SST changes are identical between coupled and uncoupled runs, other aspects of the basic state such as zonal winds do not change identically. For example, climate warming produces stronger superrotation and weaker mean lower tropospheric easterlies in the coupled run, which contributes to greater increases in MJO eastward propagation speed with warming through its effect on moisture advection. The column process, representing the sum of vertical moist static energy (MSE) advection and radiative heating anomalies, also supports faster eastward propagation with warming in the coupled run. How differing basic states between coupled and uncoupled runs contribute to this behavior is discussed in more detail.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1841754
- PAR ID:
- 10360190
- Publisher / Repository:
- DOI PREFIX: 10.1029
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems
- Volume:
- 12
- Issue:
- 8
- ISSN:
- 1942-2466
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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