More Like this

1. The Role of Seasonality and the ENSO Mode in Central and East Pacific ENSO Growth and Evolution

   https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0599.1  

   Vimont, Daniel J. ; Newman, Matthew ; Battisti, David S. ; Shin, Sang-Ik ( June 2022 , Journal of Climate)

   A cyclostationary linear inverse model (CSLIM) is used to investigate the seasonal growth of tropical Pacific Ocean El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events with canonical, central Pacific (CP), or eastern Pacific (EP) sea surface temperature (SST) characteristics. Analysis shows that all types of ENSO events experience maximum growth toward final states occurring in November and December. ENSO events with EP characteristics also experience growth into May and June, but CP events do not. A single dominant “ENSO mode,” growing from an equatorial heat content anomaly into a characteristic ENSO-type SST pattern in about 9 months (consistent with the delayed/recharge oscillator model of ENSO), is essential for the predictable development of all ENSO events. Notably, its seasonality is responsible for the late-calendar-year maximum in ENSO amplification. However, this ENSO mode alone does not capture the observed growth and evolution of diverse ENSO events, which additionally involve the seasonal evolution of other nonorthogonal Floquet modes. EP event growth occurs when the ENSO mode is initially “covered up” in combination with other Floquet modes. The ENSO mode’s slow seasonal evolution allows it to emerge while the other modes rapidly evolve and/or decay, leading to strongly amplifying and more predictable EP events. CP events develop when the initial state has a substantial contribution from Floquet modes with meridional mode–like SST structures. Thus, while nearly all ENSO events involve the seasonally varying ENSO-mode dynamics, the diversity and predictability of ENSO events cannot be understood without identifying contributions from the remaining Floquet modes.

   The purpose of this study is to identify structures that lead to seasonal growth of diverse types of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. An important contribution from this study is that it uses an observationally constrained, empirically derived seasonal model. We find that processes affecting the evolution of diverse ENSO events are strongly seasonally dependent. ENSO events with eastern equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) characteristics are closely related to a single “ENSO mode” that resembles theoretical models of ENSO variability. ENSO events that have central equatorial Pacific SST characteristics include contributions from additional “meridional mode” structures that evolve via different physical processes. These findings are an important step in evaluating the seasonal predictability of ENSO diversity.

    

   more » « less
2. Strong quasi-stationary wintertime atmospheric surface pressure anomalies drive a dipole pattern in the Subantarctic ModeWater formation

   https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0593.1  

   Cerovečki, Ivana ; Meijers, Andrew J.S. ( January 2021 , Journal of Climate)

   null (Ed.)

   Abstract The deepest wintertime (Jul-Sep) mixed layers associated with Subantarctic Mode Water (SAMW) formation develop in the Indian and Pacific sectors of the Southern Ocean. In these two sectors the dominant interannual variability of both deep wintertime mixed layers and SAMW volume is a east-west dipole pattern in each basin. The variability of these dipoles are strongly correlated with the interannual variability of overlying winter quasi-stationary mean sea level pressure (MSLP) anomalies. Anomalously strong positive MSLP anomalies are found to result in the deepening of the wintertime mixed layers and an increase in the SAMW formation in the eastern parts of the dipoles in the Pacific and Indian sectors. These effects are due to enhanced cold southerly meridional winds, strengthened zonal winds and increased surface ocean heat loss. The opposite occurs in the western parts of the dipoles in these sectors. Conversely, strong negative MSLP anomalies result in shoaling (deepening) of the wintertime mixed layers and a decrease (increase) in SAMW formation in the eastern (western) regions. The MSLP variability of the Pacific and Indian basin anomalies are not always in phase, especially in years with a strong El Niño, resulting in different patterns of SAMW formation in the western vs. eastern parts of the Indian and Pacific sectors. Strong isopycnal depth and thickness anomalies develop in the SAMW density range in years with strong MSLP anomalies. When advected eastward, they act to precondition downstream SAMW formation in the subsequent winter. 

   more » « less
3. Insights into ENSO Diversity from an Intermediate Coupled Model. Part I: Uniqueness and Sensitivity of the ENSO Mode

   https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0043.1  

   Geng, Licheng ; Jin, Fei-Fei ( November 2023 , Journal of Climate)

   The basic dynamics of the spatiotemporal diversity for El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has been the subject of extensive research and, while several hypotheses have been proposed, remains elusive. One promising line of studies suggests that the observed eastern Pacific (EP) and central Pacific (CP) ENSO may originate from two coexisting leading ENSO modes. We show that the coexistence of unstable EP-like and CP-like modes in these studies arises from contaminated linear stability analysis due to unnoticed numerical scheme caveats. In this two-part study, we further investigate the dynamics of ENSO diversity within a Cane–Zebiak-type model. We first revisit the linear stability issue to demonstrate that only one ENSO-like linear leading mode exists under realistic climate conditions. This single leading ENSO mode can be linked to either a coupled recharge-oscillator (RO) mode favored by the thermocline feedback or a wave-oscillator (WO) mode favored by the zonal advective feedback at the weak air–sea coupling end. Strong competition between the RO and WO modes for their prominence in shaping this ENSO mode into a generalized RO mode makes it sensitive to moderate changes in these two key feedbacks. Modulations of climate conditions yield corresponding modulations in spatial pattern, amplitude, and period associated with this ENSO mode. However, the ENSO behavior undergoing this linear climate condition modulations alone does not seem consistent with the observed ENSO diversity, suggesting the inadequacy of linear dynamics in explaining ENSO diversity. A nonlinear mechanism for ENSO diversity will be proposed and discussed in Part II.

    

   more » « less
4. Propagating Modes of Variability and Their Impact on the Western Boundary Current in the South Atlantic

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JC014812  

   Majumder, Sudip ; Goes, Marlos ; Polito, Paulo S. ; Lumpkin, Rick ; Schmid, Claudia ; Lopez, Hosmay ( May 2019 , Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans)

   Studies have suggested that the South Atlantic Ocean plays an important role in modulating climate at global and regional scales and thus could serve as a potential predictor of extreme rainfall and temperature events globally. To understand how propagating modes of variability influence the circulation of the subtropical gyre and the southward flowing Brazil Current (BC) at interannual frequencies, a Complex Empirical Orthogonal Function (CEOF) analysis was performed on the satellite‐derived sea surface height (SSH). The first three CEOF modes explain about 23%, 16%, and 11% of the total interannual variability and show clear westward propagation with phase speeds comparable to that of theoretical baroclinic mode 1 Rossby waves. Results suggest that there is a change in the way energy is distributed among the modes before and after 2005. Before 2005, the SSH variability in the western boundary in the South Atlantic and the volume transport of the BC are more closely linked to the first and the second modes, while the third mode dominates after 2005. This change in energy distribution around 2005 is associated with the recent El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) regime shift in the Pacific Ocean via atmospheric teleconnections. We found that the first CEOF mode is strongly correlated with eastern Pacific (i.e., canonical) ENSO events and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, whereas the third CEOF is correlated to central Pacific (i.e., Modoki) ENSO. These results are useful to understand the overall dynamics of the South Atlantic and to potentially improve predictability of Meridional Overturning Circulation and monsoon pattern changes around the world.

    

   more » « less
5. ENSO Regime Changes Responsible for Decadal Phase Relationship Variations Between ENSO Sea Surface Temperature and Warm Water Volume

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL082943  

   Zhang, Wenjun ; Li, Sixu ; Jin, Fei‐Fei ; Xie, Ruihuang ; Liu, Chao ; Stuecker, Malte F. ; Xue, Aoyun ( July 2019 , Geophysical Research Letters)

   The relationship between the equatorial Pacific warm water volume (WWV) and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) sea surface temperature (SST) has varied considerably on decadal timescales. These changes are strongly related to the occurrence frequency of central Pacific (CP) ENSO events. While both eastern Pacific (EP) and CP ENSO events show clear signatures of WWV recharge/discharge, their phase‐lag relationships between WWV and Niño3.4 SST are different. The WWV usually leads the Niño3.4 SST by two to three seasons during EP ENSO, while the lead time is reduced to one season during CP ENSO. The different phase‐lag relationships can be explained by distinct periodicities of the two ENSO types. Hence, ENSO regime changes associated with decadal predominance of either EP or CP ENSO events can give rise to decadal variations in the statistical WWV‐ENSO SST relationship. We emphasize the importance of identifying these different ENSO types and potentially different ENSO regimes to assess ENSO predictability.

    

   more » « less