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Abstract Multiyear periods (≥4 years) of extreme rainfall are increasing in frequency as climate continues to change, yet there is little understanding of how rainfall amount and heterogeneity in biophysical properties affect state changes in a sequence of wet and dry periods. Our objective was to examine the importance of rainfall periods, their legacies, and vegetation and soil properties to either the persistence of woody plants or a shift toward perennial grass dominance and a state reversal. We examined a 28‐year record of rainfall consisting of a sequence of multiyear periods (average, dry, wet, dry, average) for four ecosystem types in the Jornada Basin. We analyzed relationships between above ground net primary production (ANPP) and rainfall for three plant functional groups that characterize alternative states (perennial grasses, other herbaceous plants, dominant shrubs). A multimodel comparison was used to determine the relative importance of rainfall, soil, and vegetation properties. For perennial grasses, the greatest mean ANPP in mesquite‐ and tarbush‐dominated shrublands occurred in the wet period and in the dry period following the wet period in grasslands. Legacy effects in grasslands were asymmetric, where the lowest production was found in a dry period following an average period, and the greatest production occurred in a dry period following a wet period. For other herbaceous plants, in contrast, the greatest ANPP occurred in the wet period. Mesquite was the only dominant shrub species with a significant positive response in the wet period. Rainfall amount was a poor predictor of ANPP for each functional group when data from all periods were combined. Initial herbaceous biomass at the plant scale, patch‐scale biomass, and soil texture at the landscape scale improved the predictive relationships of ANPP compared with rainfall alone. Under future climate, perennial grass production is expected to benefit the most from wet periods compared with other functional groups with continued high grass production in subsequent dry periods that can shift (desertified) shrublands toward grasslands. The continued dominance by shrubs will depend on the effects that rainfall has on perennial grasses and the sequence of high‐ and low‐rainfall periods rather than the direct effects of rainfall on shrub production.
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Differing climate and landscape effects on regional dryland vegetation responses during wet periods allude to future patterns
Abstract Dryland vegetation is influenced by biotic and abiotic land surface template (LST) conditions and precipitation (PPT), such that enhanced vegetation responses to periods of high PPT may be shaped by multiple factors. High PPT stochasticity in the Chihuahuan Desert suggests that enhanced responses across broad geographic areas are improbable. Yet, multiyear wet periods may homogenize PPT patterns, interact with favorable LST conditions, and in this way produce enhanced responses. In contrast, periods containing multiple extreme high PPT pulse events could overwhelm LST influences, suggesting a divergence in how climate change could influence vegetation by altering PPT periods. Using a suite of stacked remote sensing and LST datasets from the 1980s to the present, we evaluated PPT‐LST‐Vegetation relationships across this region and tested the hypothesis that enhanced vegetation responses would be initiated by high PPT, but that LST favorability would underlie response magnitude, producing geographic differences between wet periods. We focused on two multiyear wet periods; one of above average, regionally distributed PPT (1990–1993) and a second with locally distributed PPT that contained two extreme wet pulses (2006–2008). 1990–1993 had regional vegetation responses that were correlated with soil properties. 2006–2008 had higher vegetation responses over a smaller area that were correlated primarily with PPT and secondarily to soil properties. Within the overlapping PPT area of both periods, enhanced vegetation responses occurred in similar locations. Thus, LST favorability underlied the geographic pattern of vegetation responses, whereas PPT initiated the response and controlled response area and maximum response magnitude. Multiyear periods provide foresight on the differing impacts that directional changes in mean climate and changes in extreme PPT pulses could have in drylands. Our study shows that future vegetation responses during wet periods will be tied to LST favorability, yet will be shaped by the pattern and magnitude of multiyear PPT events.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1832194
- PAR ID:
- 10363620
- Publisher / Repository:
- Wiley-Blackwell
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Global Change Biology
- Volume:
- 25
- Issue:
- 10
- ISSN:
- 1354-1013
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- p. 3305-3318
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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