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Abstract Multiyear periods (≥4 years) of extreme rainfall are increasing in frequency as climate continues to change, yet there is little understanding of how rainfall amount and heterogeneity in biophysical properties affect state changes in a sequence of wet and dry periods. Our objective was to examine the importance of rainfall periods, their legacies, and vegetation and soil properties to either the persistence of woody plants or a shift toward perennial grass dominance and a state reversal. We examined a 28‐year record of rainfall consisting of a sequence of multiyear periods (average, dry, wet, dry, average) for four ecosystem types in the Jornada Basin. We analyzed relationships between above ground net primary production (ANPP) and rainfall for three plant functional groups that characterize alternative states (perennial grasses, other herbaceous plants, dominant shrubs). A multimodel comparison was used to determine the relative importance of rainfall, soil, and vegetation properties. For perennial grasses, the greatest mean ANPP in mesquite‐ and tarbush‐dominated shrublands occurred in the wet period and in the dry period following the wet period in grasslands. Legacy effects in grasslands were asymmetric, where the lowest production was found in a dry period following an average period, and the greatest production occurred in a dry period following a wet period. For other herbaceous plants, in contrast, the greatest ANPP occurred in the wet period. Mesquite was the only dominant shrub species with a significant positive response in the wet period. Rainfall amount was a poor predictor of ANPP for each functional group when data from all periods were combined. Initial herbaceous biomass at the plant scale, patch‐scale biomass, and soil texture at the landscape scale improved the predictive relationships of ANPP compared with rainfall alone. Under future climate, perennial grass production is expected to benefit the most from wet periods compared with other functional groups with continued high grass production in subsequent dry periods that can shift (desertified) shrublands toward grasslands. The continued dominance by shrubs will depend on the effects that rainfall has on perennial grasses and the sequence of high‐ and low‐rainfall periods rather than the direct effects of rainfall on shrub production. 

Abstract Prediction of abrupt ecosystem transitions resulting from climatic change will be an essential element of adaptation strategies in the coming decades. In the arid southwest USA, the collapse and recovery of long‐lived perennial grasses have important effects on ecosystem services, but the causes of these variations have been poorly understood. Here we use a quality‐controlled vegetation monitoring dataset initiated in 1915 to show that grass cover dynamics during the 20th century were closely correlated to the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) index. The relationship out‐performed models correlating grasses to yearly precipitation and drought indices, suggesting that ecosystem transitions attributed only to local disturbances were instead influenced by climate teleconnections. Shifts in PDO phase over time were associated with the persistent loss of core grass species and recovery of transient species, so recovery of grasses in aggregate concealed significant changes in species composition. However, the relationship between PDO and grass cover broke down after 1995; grass cover is consistently lower than PDO would predict. The decoupling of grass cover from the PDO suggests that a threshold had been crossed in which warming or land degradation overwhelmed the ability of any grass species to recover during favorable periods. 

Introduction Soil microbial communities, including biological soil crust microbiomes, play key roles in water, carbon and nitrogen cycling, biological weathering, and other nutrient releasing processes of desert ecosystems. However, our knowledge of microbial distribution patterns and ecological drivers is still poor, especially so for the Chihuahuan Desert. Methods This project investigated the effects of trampling disturbance on surface soil microbiomes, explored community composition and structure, and related patterns to abiotic and biotic landscape characteristics within the Chihuahuan Desert biome. Composite soil samples were collected in disturbed and undisturbed areas of 15 long-term ecological research plots in the Jornada Basin, New Mexico. Microbial diversity of cross-domain microbial groups (total Bacteria, Cyanobacteria, Archaea, and Fungi) was obtained via DNA amplicon metabarcode sequencing. Sequence data were related to landscape characteristics including vegetation type, landforms, ecological site and state as well as soil properties including gravel content, soil texture, pH, and electrical conductivity. Results Filamentous Cyanobacteria dominated the photoautotrophic community while Proteobacteria and Actinobacteria dominated among the heterotrophic bacteria. Thaumarchaeota were the most abundant Archaea and drought adapted taxa in Dothideomycetes and Agaricomycetes were most abundant fungi in the soil surface microbiomes. Apart from richness within Archaea ( p  = 0.0124), disturbed samples did not differ from undisturbed samples with respect to alpha diversity and community composition ( p  ≥ 0.05), possibly due to a lack of frequent or impactful disturbance. Vegetation type and landform showed differences in richness of Bacteria, Archaea, and Cyanobacteria but not in Fungi. Richness lacked strong relationships with soil variables. Landscape features including parent material, vegetation type, landform type, and ecological sites and states, exhibited stronger influence on relative abundances and microbial community composition than on alpha diversity, especially for Cyanobacteria and Fungi. Soil texture, moisture, pH, electrical conductivity, lichen cover, and perennial plant biomass correlated strongly with microbial community gradients detected in NMDS ordinations. Discussion Our study provides first comprehensive insights into the relationships between landscape characteristics, associated soil properties, and cross-domain soil microbiomes in the Chihuahuan Desert. Our findings will inform land management and restoration efforts and aid in the understanding of processes such as desertification and state transitioning, which represent urgent ecological and economical challenges in drylands around the world. 

Abstract Janus is the Roman god of transitions. In many environments, state transitions are an important part of our understanding of ecological change. These transitions are controlled by the interactions between exogenous forcing factors and stabilizing endogenous feedbacks. Forcing factors and feedbacks are typically considered to consist of different processes. We argue that during extreme events, a process that usually forms part of a stabilizing feedback can behave as a forcing factor. And thus, like Janus, a single process can have two faces. The case explored here pertains to state change in drylands where interactions between wind erosion and vegetation form an important feedback that encourages grass‐to‐shrub state transitions. Wind concentrates soil resources in shrub‐centered fertile islands, removes resources through loss of fines to favor deep‐rooted shrubs, and abrades grasses' photosynthetic tissue, thus further favoring the shrub state that, in turn, experiences greater aeolian transport. This feedback is well documented but the potential of wind to act also as a forcing has yet to be examined. Extreme wind events have the potential to act like other drivers of state change, such as drought and grazing, to directly reduce grass cover. This study examines the responses of a grass‐shrub community after two extreme wind events in 2019 caused severe deflation. We measured grass cover and root exposure due to deflation, in addition to shrub height, grass patch size, and grass greenness along 50‐m transects across a wide range of grass cover. Root exposure was concentrated in the direction of erosive winds during the storms and sites with low grass cover were associated with increased root exposure and reduced greenness. We argue that differences between extreme, rare wind events and frequent, small wind events are significant enough to be differences in kind rather than differences in degree allowing extreme winds to behave as endogenous forcings and common winds to participate in an endogenous stabilizing feedback. Several types of state change in other ecological systems in are contextualized within this framework. 

Vesicular stomatitis (VS) is the most common vesicular livestock disease in North America. Transmitted by direct contact and by several biting insect species, this disease results in quarantines and animal movement restrictions in horses, cattle and swine. As changes in climate drive shifts in geographic distributions of vectors and the viruses they transmit, there is considerable need to improve understanding of relationships among environmental drivers and patterns of disease occurrence. Multidisciplinary approaches integrating pathology, ecology, climatology, and biogeophysics are increasingly relied upon to disentangle complex relationships governing disease. We used a big data model integration approach combined with machine learning to estimate the potential geographic range of VS across the continental United States (CONUS) under long-term mean climate conditions over the past 30 years. The current extent of VS is confined to the western portion of the US and is related to summer and winter precipitation, winter maximum temperature, elevation, fall vegetation biomass, horse density, and proximity to water. Comparison with a climate-only model illustrates the importance of current processes-based parameters and identifies regions where uncertainty is likely to be greatest if mechanistic processes change. We then forecast shifts in the range of VS using climate change projections selected from CMIP5 climate models that most realistically simulate seasonal temperature and precipitation. Climate change scenarios that altered climatic conditions resulted in greater changes to potential range of VS, generally had non-uniform impacts in core areas of the current potential range of VS and expanded the range north and east. We expect that the heterogeneous impacts of climate change across the CONUS will be exacerbated with additional changes in land use and land cover affecting biodiversity and hydrological cycles that are connected to the ecology of insect vectors involved in VS transmission. 

Abstract Aims Grassland-to-shrubland transition is a common form of land degradation in drylands worldwide. It is often attributed to changes in disturbance regimes, particularly overgrazing. A myriad of direct and indirect effects (e.g., accelerated soil erosion) of grazing may favor shrubs over grasses, but their relative importance is unclear. We tested the hypothesis that topsoil “winnowing” by wind erosion would differentially affect grass and shrub seedling establishment to promote shrub recruitment over that of grass. Methods We monitored germination and seedling growth of contrasting perennial grass ( Bouteloua eriopoda , Sporobolus airoides , and Aristida purpurea ) and shrub ( Prosopis glandulosa , Atriplex canescens , and Larrea tridentata ) functional groups on field-collected non-winnowed and winnowed soils under well-watered greenhouse conditions. Results Non-winnowed soils were finer-textured and had higher nutrient contents than winnowed soils, but based on desorption curves, winnowed soils had more plant-available moisture. Contrary to expectations, seed germination and seedling growth on winnowed and non-winnowed soils were comparable within a given species. The N 2 -fixing deciduous shrub P. glandulosa was first to emerge and complete germination, and had the greatest biomass accumulation of all species. Conclusions Germination and early seedling growth of grasses and shrubs on winnowed soils were not adversely nor differentially affected comparing with that observed on non-winnowed soils under well-watered greenhouse conditions. Early germination and rapid growth may give P. glandulosa a competitive advantage over grasses and other shrub species at the establishment stage in grazed grasslands. Field establishment experiments are needed to confirm our findings in these controlled environment trials.