An official website of the United States government
Abstract To improve understanding of ocean processes impacting monthly sea surface temperature (SST) variability, we analyze a Community Earth System Model, version 2, hierarchy in which models vary only in their degree of ocean complexity. The most realistic ocean is a dynamical ocean model, as part of a fully coupled model (FCM). The next most realistic ocean, from a mechanically decoupled model (MDM), is like the FCM but excludes anomalous wind stress–driven ocean variability. The simplest ocean is a slab ocean model (SOM). Inclusion of a buoyancy coupled dynamic ocean as in the MDM, which includes temperature advection and vertical mixing absent in the SOM, leads to dampening of SST variance everywhere and reduced persistence of SST anomalies in the high latitudes and equatorial Pacific compared to the SOM. Inclusion of anomalous wind stress–driven ocean dynamics as in the FCM leads to higher SST variance and longer persistence time scales in most regions compared to the MDM. The net role of the dynamic ocean, as an overall dampener or amplifier of anomalous SST variance and persistence, is regionally dependent. Notably, we find that efforts to reduce the complexity of the ocean models in the SOM and MDM configurations result in changes in the magnitude of the thermodynamic forcing of SST variability compared to the FCM. These changes, in part, stem from differences in the seasonally varying mixed layer depth and should be considered when attempting to quantify the relative contribution of certain ocean mechanisms to differences in SST variability between the models.
more »
« less
Understanding the Role of Ocean Dynamics in Midlatitude Sea Surface Temperature Variability Using a Simple Stochastic Climate Model
Abstract In a recent paper, we argued that ocean dynamics increase the variability of midlatitude sea surface temperatures (SSTs) on monthly to interannual time scales, but act to damp lower-frequency SST variability over broad midlatitude regions. Here, we use two configurations of a simple stochastic climate model to provide new insights into this important aspect of climate variability. The simplest configuration includes the forcing and damping of SST variability by observed surface heat fluxes only, and the more complex configuration includes forcing and damping by ocean processes, which are estimated indirectly from monthly observations. It is found that the simple model driven only by the observed surface heat fluxes generally produces midlatitude SST power spectra that are tooredcompared to observations. Including ocean processes in the model reduces this discrepancy bywhiteningthe midlatitude SST spectra. In particular, ocean processes generally increase the SST variance on <2-yr time scales and decrease it on >2-yr time scales. This happens because oceanic forcing increases the midlatitude SST variance across many time scales, but oceanic damping outweighs oceanic forcing on >2-yr time scales, particularly away from the western boundary currents. The whitening of midlatitude SST variability by ocean processes also operates in NCAR’s Community Earth System Model (CESM). That is, midlatitude SST spectra are generally redder when the same atmospheric model is coupled to a slab rather than dynamically active ocean model. Overall, the results suggest that forcing and damping by ocean processes play essential roles in driving midlatitude SST variability.
more »
« less
- Award ID(s):
- 2055121
- PAR ID:
- 10366942
- Publisher / Repository:
- American Meteorological Society
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Journal of Climate
- Volume:
- 35
- Issue:
- 11
- ISSN:
- 0894-8755
- Format(s):
- Medium: X Size: p. 3313-3333
- Size(s):
- p. 3313-3333
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
More Like this
-
-
Abstract We analyze the role of mesoscale heat advection in a mixed layer (ML) heat budget, using a regional high-resolution coupled model with realistic atmospheric forcing and an idealized ocean component. The model represents two regions in the Southern Ocean, one with strong ocean currents and the other with weak ocean currents. We conclude that heat advection by oceanic currents creates mesoscale anomalies in sea surface temperature (SST), while the atmospheric turbulent heat fluxes dampen these SST anomalies. This relationship depends on the spatial scale, the strength of the currents, and the mixed layer depth (MLD). At the oceanic mesoscale, there is a positive correlation between the advection and SST anomalies, especially when the currents are strong overall. For large-scale zonal anomalies, the ML-integrated advection determines the heating/cooling of the ML, while the SST anomalies tend to be larger in size than the advection and the spatial correlation between these two fields is weak. The effects of atmospheric forcing on the ocean are modulated by the MLD variability. The significance of Ekman advection and diabatic heating is secondary to geostrophic advection except in summer when the MLD is shallow. This study links heat advection, SST anomalies, and air–sea heat fluxes at ocean mesoscales, and emphasizes the overall dominance of intrinsic oceanic variability in mesoscale air–sea heat exchange in the Southern Ocean.more » « less
-
Abstract. Mixed-layer depth (MLD) exhibits significant variability, which is important for atmosphere–ocean exchanges of heat and atmospheric gases. The origins of the mesoscale MLD variability in the Southern Ocean are studied here in an idealised regional ocean–atmosphere model (ROAM). The main conclusion from the analysis of the upper-ocean buoyancy budget is that, while the atmospheric forcing and oceanic vertical mixing, on average, induce the mesoscale variability of MLD, the three-dimensional oceanic advection of buoyancy counteracts and partially balances these atmosphere-induced vertical processes. The relative importance of advection changes with both season and average MLD. From January to May, when the mixed layer is shallow, the atmospheric forcing and oceanic mixing are the most important processes, with the advection playing a secondary role. From June to December, when the mixed layer is deep, both atmospheric forcing and oceanic advection are equally important in driving the MLD variability. Importantly, buoyancy advection by mesoscale ocean current anomalies can lead to both local shoaling and deepening of the mixed layer. The role of the atmospheric forcing is then directly addressed by two sensitivity experiments in which the mesoscale variability is removed from the atmosphere–ocean heat and momentum fluxes. The findings confirm that mesoscale atmospheric forcing predominantly controls MLD variability in summer and that intrinsic oceanic variability and surface forcing are equally important in winter. As a result, MLD variance increases when mesoscale anomalies in atmospheric fluxes are removed in winter, and oceanic advection becomes a dominant player in the buoyancy budget. This study highlights the importance of oceanic advection and intrinsic ocean dynamics in driving mesoscale MLD variability and underscores the importance of MLD in modulating the effects of advection on upper-ocean dynamics.more » « less
-
Abstract Under anthropogenic warming, future changes to climate variability beyond specific modes such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) have not been well-characterized. In the Community Earth System Model version 2 Large Ensemble (CESM2-LE) climate model, the future change to sea surface temperature (SST) variability (and correspondingly marine heatwave intensity) on monthly timescales and longer is spatially heterogeneous. We examined these projected changes (between 1960–2000 and 2060–2100) in the North Pacific using a local linear stochastic-deterministic model, which allowed us to quantify the effect of changes to three drivers on SST variability: ocean “memory” (the SST damping timescale), ENSO teleconnections, and stochastic noise forcing. The ocean memory declines in most areas, but lengthens in the central North Pacific. This change is primarily due to changes in air-sea feedbacks and ocean damping, with the shallowing mixed layer depth playing a secondary role. An eastward shift of the ENSO teleconnection pattern is primarily responsible for the pattern of SST variance change.more » « less
-
Abstract Previous research suggests the extratropical atmospheric circulation responds to that sea‐surface temperature (SST) variability in the western North Pacific. However, the relative roles of oceanic and atmospheric processes in driving the SST anomalies that, in turn, seemingly influence the atmospheric circulation are unclear. Here, we exploit a simple stochastic climate model to subdivide the SST variability in the Kuroshio‐Oyashio Extension region into components forced by oceanic and atmospheric processes. We then probe the lead/lag relationships between the atmospheric circulation and both components of the SST variability. Importantly, only the oceanic‐forced SST variability is associated with robust atmospheric anomalies that lag the SSTs by 1 month. The results are consistent with the surface heat fluxes associated with atmospheric and oceanic‐forced components of the SST variability. Overall, the findings suggest that ocean dynamical processes in the western North Pacific play an important role in influencing the variability of the extratropical circulation.more » « less
