The arrival time prediction of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is an area of active research. Many methods with varying levels of complexity have been developed to predict CME arrival. However, the mean absolute error (MAE) of predictions remains above 12 hr, even with the increasing complexity of methods. In this work we develop a new method for CME arrival time prediction that uses magnetohydrodynamic simulations involving data-constrained flux-rope-based CMEs, which are introduced in a data-driven solar wind background. We found that for six CMEs studied in this work the MAE in arrival time was ∼8 hr. We further improved our arrival time predictions by using ensemble modeling and comparing the ensemble solutions with STEREO-A and STEREO-B heliospheric imager data. This was done by using our simulations to create synthetic J-maps. A machine-learning (ML) method called the lasso regression was used for this comparison. Using this approach, we could reduce the MAE to ∼4 hr. Another ML method based on the neural networks (NNs) made it possible to reduce the MAE to ∼5 hr for the cases when HI data from both STEREO-A and STEREO-B were available. NNs are capable of providing similar MAE when only the STEREO-A data aremore »
Archetypal analysis (AA) is an unsupervised learning method for exploratory data analysis. One major challenge that limits the applicability of AA in practice is the inherent computational complexity of the existing algorithms. In this paper, we provide a novel approximation approach to partially address this issue. Utilizing probabilistic ideas from high-dimensional geometry, we introduce two preprocessing techniques to reduce the dimension and representation cardinality of the data, respectively. We prove that provided data are approximately embedded in a low-dimensional linear subspace and the convex hull of the corresponding representations is well approximated by a polytope with a few vertices, our method can effectively reduce the scaling of AA. Moreover, the solution of the reduced problem is near-optimal in terms of prediction errors. Our approach can be combined with other acceleration techniques to further mitigate the intrinsic complexity of AA. We demonstrate the usefulness of our results by applying our method to summarize several moderately large-scale datasets.
- Award ID(s):
- 1752202
- Publication Date:
- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10367051
- Journal Name:
- Information and Inference: A Journal of the IMA
- Volume:
- 12
- Issue:
- 1
- Page Range or eLocation-ID:
- p. 466-493
- ISSN:
- 2049-8772
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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Availability and implementation The RHE-reg software is made freely available to the research community at: https://github.com/sriramlab/RHE-reg.
