Abstract Predicting individual large earthquakes (EQs)’ locations, magnitudes, and timing remains unreachable. The author’s prior study shows that individual large EQs have unique signatures obtained from multi-layered data transformations. Via spatio-temporal convolutions, decades-long EQ catalog data are transformed into pseudo-physics quantities (e.g., energy, power, vorticity, and Laplacian), which turn into surface-like information via Gauss curvatures. Using these new features, a rule-learning machine learning approach unravels promising prediction rules. This paper suggests further data transformation via Fourier transformation (FT). Results show that FT-based new feature can help sharpen the prediction rules. Feasibility tests of large EQs ($$M\ge$$ 6.5) over the past 40 years in the western U.S. show promise, shedding light on data-driven prediction of individual large EQs. The handshake among ML methods, Fourier, and Gauss may help answer the long-standing enigma of seismogenesis.
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Gauss curvature-based unique signatures of individual large earthquakes and its implications for customized data-driven prediction
Abstract Statistical descriptions of earthquakes offer important probabilistic information, and newly emerging technologies of high-precision observations and machine learning collectively advance our knowledge regarding complex earthquake behaviors. Still, there remains a formidable knowledge gap for predicting individual large earthquakes’ locations and magnitudes. Here, this study shows that the individual large earthquakes may have unique signatures that can be represented by new high-dimensional features—Gauss curvature-based coordinates. Particularly, the observed earthquake catalog data are transformed into a number of pseudo physics quantities (i.e., energy, power, vorticity, and Laplacian) which turn into smooth surface-like information via spatio-temporal convolution, giving rise to the new high-dimensional coordinates. Validations with 40-year earthquakes in the West U.S. region show that the new coordinates appear to hold uniqueness for individual large earthquakes ($$M_w \ge 7.0$$ ), and the pseudo physics quantities help identify a customized data-driven prediction model. A Bayesian evolutionary algorithm in conjunction with flexible bases can identify a data-driven model, demonstrating its promising reproduction of individual large earthquake’s location and magnitude. Results imply that an individual large earthquake can be distinguished and remembered while its best-so-far model can be customized by machine learning. This study paves a new way to data-driven automated evolution of individual earthquake prediction.
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- PAR ID:
- 10367627
- Publisher / Repository:
- Nature Publishing Group
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Scientific Reports
- Volume:
- 12
- Issue:
- 1
- ISSN:
- 2045-2322
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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