An official website of the United States government
ABSTRACT We simulate shaking in Tacoma, Washington, and surrounding areas from Mw 6.5 and 7.0 earthquakes on the Tacoma fault. Ground motions are directly modeled up to 2.5 Hz using kinematic, finite-fault sources; a 3D seismic velocity model considering regional geology; and a model mesh with 30 m sampling at the ground surface. In addition, we explore how adjustments to the seismic velocity model affect predicted shaking over a range of periods. These adjustments include the addition of a region-specific geotechnical gradient, surface topography, and a fault damage zone. We find that the simulated shaking tends to be near estimates from empirical ground-motion models (GMMs). However, long-period (T = 5.0 s) shaking within the Tacoma basin is typically underpredicted by the GMMs. The fit between simulated and GMM-derived short-period (T = 0.5 s) shaking is significantly improved with the addition of the geotechnical gradient. From comparing different Mw 6.5 earthquake scenarios, we also find that the response of the Tacoma basin is sensitive to the azimuth of incoming seismic waves. In adding surface topography to the simulation, we find that average ground motion is similar to that produced from the nontopography model. However, shaking is often amplified at topographic highs and deamplified at topographic lows, and the wavefield undergoes extensive scattering. Adding a fault damage zone has the effect of amplifying short-period shaking adjacent to the fault, while reducing far-field shaking. Intermediate-period shaking is amplified within the Tacoma basin, likely due to enhanced surface-wave generation attributable to the fault damage zone waveguide. When applied in the same model, the topography and fault damage zone adjustments often enhance or reduce the effects of one another, adding further complexity to the wavefield. These results emphasize the importance of improving near-surface velocity model resolution as waveform simulations progress toward higher frequencies.
more »
« less
0–5 Hz deterministic 3-D ground motion simulations for the 2014 La Habra, California, Earthquake
SUMMARY We have simulated 0–5 Hz deterministic wave propagation for a suite of 17 models of the 2014 Mw 5.1 La Habra, CA, earthquake with the Southern California Earthquake Center Community Velocity Model Version S4.26-M01 using a finite-fault source. Strong motion data at 259 sites within a 148 km × 140 km area are used to validate our simulations. Our simulations quantify the effects of statistical distributions of small-scale crustal heterogeneities (SSHs), frequency-dependent attenuation Q(f), surface topography and near-surface low-velocity material (via a 1-D approximation) on the resulting ground motion synthetics. The shear wave quality factor QS(f) is parametrized as QS, 0 and QS, 0fγ for frequencies less than and higher than 1 Hz, respectively. We find the most favourable fit to data for models using ratios of QS, 0 to shear wave velocity VS of 0.075–1.0 and γ values less than 0.6, with the best-fitting amplitude drop-off for the higher frequencies obtained for γ values of 0.2–0.4. Models including topography and a realistic near-surface weathering layer tend to increase peak velocities at mountain peaks and ridges, with a corresponding decrease behind the peaks and ridges in the direction of wave propagation. We find a clear negative correlation between the effects on peak ground velocity amplification and duration lengthening, suggesting that topography redistributes seismic energy from the large-amplitude first arrivals to the adjacent coda waves. A weathering layer with realistic near-surface low velocities is found to enhance the amplification at mountain peaks and ridges, and may partly explain the underprediction of the effects of topography on ground motions found in models. Our models including topography tend to improve the fit to data, as compared to models with a flat free surface, while our distributions of SSHs with constraints from borehole data fail to significantly improve the fit. Accuracy of the velocity model, particularly the near-surface low velocities, as well as the source description, controls the resolution with which the anelastic attenuation can be determined. Our results demonstrate that it is feasible to use fully deterministic physics-based simulations to estimate ground motions for seismic hazard analysis up to 5 Hz. Here, the effects of, and trade-offs with, near-surface low-velocity material, topography, SSHs and Q(f) become increasingly important as frequencies increase towards 5 Hz, and should be included in the calculations. Future improvement in community velocity models, wider access to computational resources, more efficient numerical codes and guidance from this study are bound to further constrain the ground motion models, leading to more accurate seismic hazard analysis.
more »
« less
- Award ID(s):
- 1664203
- PAR ID:
- 10367922
- Publisher / Repository:
- Oxford University Press
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Geophysical Journal International
- Volume:
- 230
- Issue:
- 3
- ISSN:
- 0956-540X
- Format(s):
- Medium: X Size: p. 2162-2182
- Size(s):
- p. 2162-2182
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
More Like this
-
-
Abstract The ShakeOut scenario of an M 7.8 northwestward rupture on the southern San Andreas fault (SSAF) (Jones et al., 2008) predicted significant long-period ground-motion amplification in the greater Los Angeles, California, area, caused by a waveguide from interconnected sedimentary basins. However, the early ShakeOut ground-motion simulations omitted important model features with immature versions of the velocity structure and fault geometry. Here, we present 0–1 Hz 3D numerical wave propagation simulations for the ShakeOut scenario including surface topography, as well as updated high-resolution velocity structures and SSAF geometry. Spectral accelerations at 3 s are increased by the local high-resolution basin models (25%–45%) but decreased from complexity in velocity and density updates outside the basins (65%–100%) and inclusion of surface topography (∼30%). The updated model reduces the simulated long-period ground motions in the waveguide by 60%–70%, bringing the predictions significantly closer to the values by a leading Next Generation Attenuation-West2 ground-motion model.more » « less
-
Accurately predicting the seismic wavefield is important for physics-based earthquake hazard studies and is dependent on an accurate source model, a good model of the subsurface geology, and the full physics of wave propagation. Here, we conduct numerical experiments to investigate the effect of different representations of the Southern California Earthquake Center and Harvard community velocity models on seismic waveform predictions in the vicinity of the San Andreas fault in Salton Trough. We test general preconceptions about the importance of topography, near-surface geotechnical layering, and anelastic attenuation up to a maximum frequency of 0.5 Hz. For the Southern California Earthquake Center model developed without topography, we implement 1D and linear model extensions that preserve the geologic structure and a pull-up approach that adapts the original model to topographic variations and distorts the subsurface. The Harvard model includes an elevation model, so we test the squashed topography representation, which flattens it. For both community models, we modify the top 350 m by partially applying the Ely geotechnical layer using a minimum shear wave velocity of 600 m/s and incorporate an Olsen attenuation model using a ratio of 0.05. We evaluate the resulting 24 model representations using the classical waveform misfit and five moderate-magnitude earthquakes. Only the inclusion of attenuation consistently improves the wavefield predictions. It becomes more impactful at higher frequencies, where it significantly improves the performance levels of the crude 1D and linear extension models close to that of the original version. The pull-up topography representation also enhances the waveform prediction ability of the original model. Squashing the topography of the elevation-referenced Harvard model produces better seismogram fits, suggesting that seismic imagers construct community tomographic models without topography to avoid issues related to missing model parameters near the free surface or discrepancies with a different elevation model. Although full implementation of the Ely geotechnical layer that would permit shear wave velocities as low as 90 m/s proves computationally expensive, our partial implementation provides slightly better results in some cases. Our results can serve as recommendations for implementing these community models for future validation or optimization studies.more » « less
-
SUMMARY The near-surface seismic structure (to a depth of about 1000 m), particularly the shear wave velocity (VS), can strongly affect the propagation of seismic waves and, therefore, must be accurately calibrated for ground motion simulations and seismic hazard assessment. The VS of the top (<300 m) crust is often well characterized from borehole studies, geotechnical measurements, and water and oil wells, while the velocities of the material deeper than about 1000 m are typically determined by tomography studies. However, in depth ranges lacking information on shallow lithological stratification, typically rock sites outside the sedimentary basins, the material parameters between these two regions are typically poorly characterized due to resolution limits of seismic tomography. When the alluded geological constraints are not available, models, such as the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) Community Velocity Models (CVMs), default to regional tomographic estimates that do not resolve the uppermost VS values, and therefore deliver unrealistically high shallow VS estimates. The SCEC Unified Community Velocity Model (UCVM) software includes a method to incorporate the near-surface earth structure by applying a generic overlay based on measurements of time-averaged VS in top 30 m (VS30) to taper the upper part of the model to merge with tomography at a depth of 350 m, which can be applied to any of the velocity models accessible through UCVM. However, our 3-D simulations of the 2014 Mw 5.1 La Habra earthquake in the Los Angeles area using the CVM-S4.26.M01 model significantly underpredict low-frequency (<1 Hz) ground motions at sites where the material properties in the top 350 m are significantly modified by the generic overlay (‘taper’). On the other hand, extending the VS30-based taper of the shallow velocities down to a depth of about 1000 m improves the fit between our synthetics and seismic data at those sites, without compromising the fit at well-constrained sites. We explore various tapering depths, demonstrating increasing amplification as the tapering depth increases, and the model with 1000 m tapering depth yields overall favourable results. Effects of varying anelastic attenuation are small compared to effects of velocity tapering and do not significantly bias the estimated tapering depth. Although a uniform tapering depth is adopted in the models, we observe some spatial variabilities that may further improve our method.more » « less
-
Abstract Firn is the pervasive surface material across Antarctica, and its structures reflect its formation and history in response to environmental perturbations. In addition to the role of firn in thermally isolating underlying glacial ice, it defines near-surface elastic and density structure and strongly influences high-frequency (> 5 Hz) seismic phenomena observed near the surface. We investigate high-frequency seismic data collected with an array of seismographs deployed on the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) near WAIS Divide camp in January 2019. Cross-correlations of anthropogenic noise originating from the approximately 5 km-distant camp were constructed using a 1 km-diameter circular array of 22 seismographs. We distinguish three Rayleigh (elastic surface) wave modes at frequencies up to 50 Hz that exhibit systematic spatially varying particle motion characteristics. The horizontal-to-vertical ratio for the second mode shows a spatial pattern of peak frequencies that matches particle motion transitions for both the fundamental and second Rayleigh modes. This pattern is further evident in the appearance of narrow band spectral peaks. We find that shallow lateral structural variations are consistent with these observations, and model spectral peaks as Rayleigh wave amplifications within similarly scaled shallow basin-like structures delineated by the strong velocity and density gradients typical of Antarctic firn.more » « less
