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ABSTRACT We simulate shaking in Tacoma, Washington, and surrounding areas from Mw 6.5 and 7.0 earthquakes on the Tacoma fault. Ground motions are directly modeled up to 2.5 Hz using kinematic, finite-fault sources; a 3D seismic velocity model considering regional geology; and a model mesh with 30 m sampling at the ground surface. In addition, we explore how adjustments to the seismic velocity model affect predicted shaking over a range of periods. These adjustments include the addition of a region-specific geotechnical gradient, surface topography, and a fault damage zone. We find that the simulated shaking tends to be near estimates from empirical ground-motion models (GMMs). However, long-period (T = 5.0 s) shaking within the Tacoma basin is typically underpredicted by the GMMs. The fit between simulated and GMM-derived short-period (T = 0.5 s) shaking is significantly improved with the addition of the geotechnical gradient. From comparing different Mw 6.5 earthquake scenarios, we also find that the response of the Tacoma basin is sensitive to the azimuth of incoming seismic waves. In adding surface topography to the simulation, we find that average ground motion is similar to that produced from the nontopography model. However, shaking is often amplified at topographic highs and deamplified at topographic lows, and the wavefield undergoes extensive scattering. Adding a fault damage zone has the effect of amplifying short-period shaking adjacent to the fault, while reducing far-field shaking. Intermediate-period shaking is amplified within the Tacoma basin, likely due to enhanced surface-wave generation attributable to the fault damage zone waveguide. When applied in the same model, the topography and fault damage zone adjustments often enhance or reduce the effects of one another, adding further complexity to the wavefield. These results emphasize the importance of improving near-surface velocity model resolution as waveform simulations progress toward higher frequencies.
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0–5 Hz deterministic 3-D ground motion simulations for the 2014 La Habra, California, Earthquake
SUMMARY We have simulated 0–5 Hz deterministic wave propagation for a suite of 17 models of the 2014 Mw 5.1 La Habra, CA, earthquake with the Southern California Earthquake Center Community Velocity Model Version S4.26-M01 using a finite-fault source. Strong motion data at 259 sites within a 148 km × 140 km area are used to validate our simulations. Our simulations quantify the effects of statistical distributions of small-scale crustal heterogeneities (SSHs), frequency-dependent attenuation Q(f), surface topography and near-surface low-velocity material (via a 1-D approximation) on the resulting ground motion synthetics. The shear wave quality factor QS(f) is parametrized as QS, 0 and QS, 0fγ for frequencies less than and higher than 1 Hz, respectively. We find the most favourable fit to data for models using ratios of QS, 0 to shear wave velocity VS of 0.075–1.0 and γ values less than 0.6, with the best-fitting amplitude drop-off for the higher frequencies obtained for γ values of 0.2–0.4. Models including topography and a realistic near-surface weathering layer tend to increase peak velocities at mountain peaks and ridges, with a corresponding decrease behind the peaks and ridges in the direction of wave propagation. We find a clear negative correlation between the effects on peak ground velocity amplification and duration lengthening, suggesting that topography redistributes seismic energy from the large-amplitude first arrivals to the adjacent coda waves. A weathering layer with realistic near-surface low velocities is found to enhance the amplification at mountain peaks and ridges, and may partly explain the underprediction of the effects of topography on ground motions found in models. Our models including topography tend to improve the fit to data, as compared to models with a flat free surface, while our distributions of SSHs with constraints from borehole data fail to significantly improve the fit. Accuracy of the velocity model, particularly the near-surface low velocities, as well as the source description, controls the resolution with which the anelastic attenuation can be determined. Our results demonstrate that it is feasible to use fully deterministic physics-based simulations to estimate ground motions for seismic hazard analysis up to 5 Hz. Here, the effects of, and trade-offs with, near-surface low-velocity material, topography, SSHs and Q(f) become increasingly important as frequencies increase towards 5 Hz, and should be included in the calculations. Future improvement in community velocity models, wider access to computational resources, more efficient numerical codes and guidance from this study are bound to further constrain the ground motion models, leading to more accurate seismic hazard analysis.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1664203
- PAR ID:
- 10367922
- Publisher / Repository:
- Oxford University Press
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Geophysical Journal International
- Volume:
- 230
- Issue:
- 3
- ISSN:
- 0956-540X
- Format(s):
- Medium: X Size: p. 2162-2182
- Size(s):
- p. 2162-2182
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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