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1. Advancing the integration of ecosystem services and livelihood adaptation

   https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab5519  

   King, Elizabeth G. ; Nelson, Donald R. ; McGreevy, John R. ( December 2019 , Environmental Research Letters)

   Around the world today, the magnitude and rates of environmental, social, and economic change are undermining the sustainability of many rural societies that rely directly on natural resources for their livelihoods. Sustainable development efforts seek to promote livelihood adaptations that enhance food security and reduce social-ecological vulnerability, but these efforts are hampered by the difficulty of understanding the complexity and dynamism of rural livelihood systems. Disparate research avenues are strengthening our ability to grapple with complexity. But we are only just beginning to find ways to simultaneously account for problematic complexities, including multiscalar feedbacks in the ecosystems that that support livelihoods, the heterogeneous benefits garnered by different segments of society, and the complex contingencies that constrain people’s decisions and capacities to adapt. To provide a more nuanced analysis of the dynamics of transformation in rural livelihood systems, we identified key complementarities between four different research approaches, enabling us to integrate them in a novel research framework that can guide empirical and modeling research on livelihood adaptation. The framework capitalizes upon parallel concepts of sequentiality in (1) ecosystem services and (2) livelihood adaptation scholarship, then incorporates principles from (3) adaptation in social-ecological systems research to account for the dynamism inherentmore »in these often rapidly-transforming systems. Lastly, we include advances in (4) agent-based modeling, which couples human decisions and land use change and provides tools to incorporate complex social-ecological feedbacks in simulation studies of livelihood adaptation. Here we describe the new Ecosystem Services—Livelihood Adaptation (ESLA) framework, explain how it links the contributing approaches, and illustrate its application with two case studies. We offer guidance for its implementation in empirical and modeling research, and conclude with a discussion of current challenges in sustainability science and the contributions that could be gained through research guided by the ESLA framework.

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2. Complex Effects of Telecouplings on Forest Dynamics: An Agent-Based Modeling Approach

   https://doi.org/10.1175/EI-D-20-0029.1  

   Yang, Hongbo ; Ligmann-Zielinska, Arika ; Dou, Yue ; Chung, Min Gon ; Zhang, Jindong ; Liu, Jianguo ( January 2022 , Earth Interactions)

   Rural areas are increasingly subject to the effects of telecouplings (socioeconomic and environmental interactions over distances) whereby their human and natural dynamics are linked to socioeconomic and environmental drivers operating far away, such as the growing demand for labor and ecosystem services in cities. Although there have been many studies evaluating the effects of telecouplings, telecouplings in those studies were often investigated separately, and how telecouplings may interact and affect dynamics of rural coupled human and natural systems (CHANS) jointly was rarely evaluated. In this study, we developed an agent-based model and simulated the impacts of two globally common telecouplings, nature-based tourism and labor migration, on forest dynamics of a rural CHANS, China’s Wolong Nature Reserve (Wolong). Nature-based tourism and labor migration can facilitate forest recovery, and the predicted forest areas in Wolong in 2030 would be reduced by 26.2 km²(6.8%) and 23.9 km²(6.2%), respectively, without their effects. However, tourism development can significantly reduce the probability of local households to have member(s) outmigrate to work in cities and decrease the positive impact of labor migration on forest recovery. Our simulations show that the interaction between tourism and labor migration can reduce the potential forest recovery by 3.5 km²(5.0%) inmore »2030. Our study highlights that interactions among different telecouplings can generate significant impacts on socioeconomic and environmental outcomes and should be jointly considered in the design, management, and evaluation of telecouplings for achieving sustainable development goals.

   Rural areas are increasingly connected with other places through telecouplings, such as tourism and labor migration. However, telecouplings’ effects were often evaluated separately, and their interaction remains poorly understood. In this study, we evaluated how two globally common telecouplings, tourism and labor migration, jointly affect forest dynamics in a demonstration site using an agent-based modeling approach. Although both tourism and labor migration can benefit forest conservation, we found that their interaction generates an antagonistic effect: households’ involvement in tourism activities reduces their probability to have members outmigrate to work in cities and significantly diminishes the beneficial impact of labor migration on forest recovery. Our study highlights the importance of considering interaction among telecouplings in the management of telecouplings for sustainability.

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3. Causal inference in coupled human and natural systems

   https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1805563115  

   Ferraro, Paul J. ; Sanchirico, James N. ; Smith, Martin D. ( March 2019 , Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences)

   Coupled human and natural systems (CHANS) are complex, dynamic, interconnected systems with feedback across social and environmental dimensions. This feedback leads to formidable challenges for causal inference. Two significant challenges involve assumptions about excludability and the absence of interference. These two assumptions have been largely unexplored in the CHANS literature, but when either is violated, causal inferences from observable data are difficult to interpret. To explore their plausibility, structural knowledge of the system is requisite, as is an explicit recognition that most causal variables in CHANS affect a coupled pairing of environmental and human elements. In a large CHANS literature that evaluates marine protected areas, nearly 200 studies attempt to make causal claims, but few address the excludability assumption. To examine the relevance of interference in CHANS, we develop a stylized simulation of a marine CHANS with shocks that can represent policy interventions, ecological disturbances, and technological disasters. Human and capital mobility in CHANS is both a cause of interference, which biases inferences about causal effects, and a moderator of the causal effects themselves. No perfect solutions exist for satisfying excludability and interference assumptions in CHANS. To elucidate causal relationships in CHANS, multiple approaches will be needed for a givenmore »causal question, with the aim of identifying sources of bias in each approach and then triangulating on credible inferences. Within CHANS research, and sustainability science more generally, the path to accumulating an evidence base on causal relationships requires skills and knowledge from many disciplines and effective academic-practitioner collaborations.« less
4. Network analysis of ballast-mediated species transfer reveals important introduction and dispersal patterns in the Arctic

   https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-76602-4  

   Saebi, Mandana ; Xu, Jian ; Curasi, Salvatore R. ; Grey, Erin K. ; Chawla, Nitesh V. ; Lodge, David M. ( November 2020 , Scientific Reports)

   Rapid climate change has wide-ranging implications for the Arctic region, including sea ice loss, increased geopolitical attention, and expanding economic activity resulting in a dramatic increase in shipping activity. As a result, the risk of harmful non-native marine species being introduced into this critical region will increase unless policy and management steps are implemented in response. Using data about shipping, ecoregions, and environmental conditions, we leverage network analysis and data mining techniques to assess, visualize, and project ballast water-mediated species introductions into the Arctic and dispersal of non-native species within the Arctic. We first identify high-risk connections between the Arctic and non-Arctic ports that could be sources of non-native species over 15 years (1997–2012) and observe the emergence of shipping hubs in the Arctic where the cumulative risk of non-native species introduction is increasing. We then consider how environmental conditions can constrain this Arctic introduction network for species with different physiological limits, thus providing a tool that will allow decision-makers to evaluate the relative risk of different shipping routes. Next, we focus on within-Arctic ballast-mediated species dispersal where we use higher-order network analysis to identify critical shipping routes that may facilitate species dispersal within the Arctic. The risk assessment andmore »projection framework we propose could inform risk-based assessment and management of ship-borne invasive species in the Arctic.

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5. Survey Development to Measure the Gap Between Student Awareness, Literacy and Action to Address Human Caused Climate Change

   Shealy, Tripp ; Godwin, Allison ; Gardner, Haley ( June 2017 , ASEE Annual Conference proceedings)

   The United Nation’s Sustainable Development Goals state climate change could irreversibly affect future generations and is one of the most urgent issues facing society. To date, most education research on climate change examines middle and high school students’ knowledge without considering the link between understanding and interest to address such issues in their career. In research on students’ attitudes about sustainability, we found that half of first-year college engineering students, in our nationally representative sample of all college students at 4-year institutions (n = 937), do not believe climate change is caused by humans. This lack of belief in human-caused climate change is a significant problem in engineering education because our results also indicate engineering students who do not believe in human caused climate change are less likely to want to address climate change in their careers. This dismal finding highlights a need for improving student understanding and attitudes toward climate change in order to produce engineers prepared and interested in solving complex global problems in sustainability. To advance understanding about students’ understanding of climate change and their agency to address the issue, we developed the CLIMATE survey to measure senior undergraduate engineering students’ Climate change literacy, engineering identity, careermore »motivations, and agency through engineering. The survey was designed for students in their final senior design, or capstone course, just prior to entering the workforce. We developed the survey using prior national surveys and newly written questions categorized into six sections: (1) career goals and motivation, (2) college experiences, (3) agency, (4) climate literacy, (5) people and the planet, and (6) demographic information. We conducted focus groups with students to establish face and content validity of the survey. We collected pilot data with 200 engineering students in upper-level engineering courses to provide validity evidence for the use of these survey items to measure students and track changes across the undergraduate curriculum for our future work. In this paper, we narrate the development of the survey supported by literature and outline the next step for further validation and distribution on a national scale. Our intent is to receive feedback and input about the questions being asked and the CLIMATE instrument. Our objective is to share the nationally representative non-identifiable responses (the estimated goal is 4,000 responses) openly with education researchers interested in students understanding about climate change, their engineering identity, career motivations, and agency through engineering. Ultimately, we want this research to become a catalyst for teaching about topics related to climate change in engineering and its implications for sustainability.« less