Plant community assembly outcomes can be contingent upon establishment year (year effects) due to variations in the environment. Stochastic events such as interannual variability in climate, particularly in the first year of community assembly, contribute to unpredictable community outcomes over the short term, but less is known about whether year effects produce transient or persistent states on a decadal timescale. To test for short‐term (5‐year) and persistent (decadal) effects of establishment year climate on community assembly outcomes, we restored prairie in an agricultural field using the same methods in four different years (2010, 2012, 2014, and 2016) that captured a wide range of initial (planting) year climate conditions. Species composition was measured for 5 years in all four restored prairies and for 9 and 11 years in the two oldest restored prairies established under average precipitation and extreme drought conditions. The composition of the four assembled communities showed large and significant differences in the first year of restoration, followed by dynamic change over time along a similar trajectory due to a temporary flush of annual volunteer species. Sown perennial species eventually came to dominate all communities, but communities remained distinct from each other in year five. Precipitation in June and July of the establishment year explained short‐term coarse community metrics (i.e., species richness and grass/forb cover), with wet establishment years resulting in a higher cover of grasses and dry establishment years resulting in a higher cover of forbs in restored communities. Short‐term differences in community composition, species richness, and grass/forb cover in restorations established under average precipitation and drought conditions persisted for 9–11 years, with low interannual variability in the composition of each prairie over the long term, indicating persistently different states on a decadal timescale. Thus, year effects resulting from stochastic variation in climate can have decadal effects on community assembly outcomes.
Understanding how community composition is reshaped by changing climate is important for interpreting and predicting patterns of community assembly through time or across space. Community composition often does not perfectly correspond to expectations from current environmental conditions, leading to community‐climate mismatches. Here, we combine data analysis and theory development to explore how species climate response curves affect the community response to climate change. We show that strong mismatches between community and climate can appear in the absence of demographic delays or limited species pools. Communities simulated using species response curves showed temporal changes of similar magnitude to those observed in natural communities of fishes and plankton, suggesting no overall delays in community change despite substantial unexplained variation from community assembly and other processes. Our approach can be considered as a null model that will be important to use when interpreting observed community responses to climate change and variability.
more » « less- PAR ID:
- 10372410
- Publisher / Repository:
- Wiley-Blackwell
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Ecology Letters
- Volume:
- 24
- Issue:
- 4
- ISSN:
- 1461-023X
- Format(s):
- Medium: X Size: p. 708-718
- Size(s):
- p. 708-718
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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Abstract Aim Climate change affects ecological communities via impacts on species. The community's response to climate change can be represented as the temporal trend in a climate‐related functional property that is quantified using a relevant functional trait. Noteworthy, some species influence this response in the community more strongly than others.
Innovation Leveraging on the concept of keystone species, we propose that species with a strong effect on the community's functional response to climate change beyond their relative abundance can be considered as ‘climate keystone species’. We develop a stepwise tool to determine species' effects on a community's climate response and identify climate keystone species. We quantify the species‐specific effect by measuring the difference in the community's climate response with and without the species. Next, we identify climate keystone species as those with a strong residual effect after weighting with their relative abundances in the community.
Main Conclusions To illustrate the use of the stepwise tool with empirical data, we identify climate keystone species that have a strong effect on the change in the average temperature niche in North American bird communities over time and find the identification tool ecologically relevant. Identification of climate keystone species can serve as an additional conservation method to efficiently protect ecological communities and, in turn, the ecosystem functions they provide.
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Abstract Global climate change is driving species' distributions towards the poles and mountain tops during both non‐breeding and breeding seasons, leading to changes in the composition of natural communities. However, the degree of season differences in climate‐driven community shifts has not been thoroughly investigated at large spatial scales.
We compared the rates of change in the community composition during both winter (non‐breeding season) and summer (breeding) and their relation to temperature changes.
Based on continental‐scale data from Europe and North America, we examined changes in bird community composition using the community temperature index (CTI) approach and compared the changes with observed regional temperature changes during 1980–2016.
CTI increased faster in winter than in summer. This seasonal discrepancy is probably because individuals are less site‐faithful in winter, and can more readily shift their wintering sites in response to weather in comparison to the breeding season. Regional long‐term changes in community composition were positively associated with regional temperature changes during both seasons, but the pattern was only significant during summer due to high annual variability in winter communities. Annual changes in community composition were positively associated with the annual temperature changes during both seasons.
Our results were broadly consistent across continents, suggesting some climate‐driven restructuring in both European and North American avian communities. Because community composition has changed much faster during the winter than during the breeding season, it is important to increase our knowledge about climate‐driven impacts during the less‐studied non‐breeding season.
