The Arctic Ocean is characterized by an ice-covered layer of cold and relatively fresh water above layers of warmer and saltier water. It is estimated that enough heat is stored in these deeper layers to melt all the Arctic sea ice many times over, but they are isolated from the surface by a stable halocline. Current vertical mixing rates across the Arctic Ocean halocline are small, due in part to sea ice reducing wind–ocean momentum transfer and damping internal waves. However, recent observational studies have argued that sea ice retreat results in enhanced mixing. This could create a positive feedback whereby increased vertical mixing due to sea ice retreat causes the previously isolated subsurface heat to melt more sea ice. Here, we use an idealized climate model to investigate the impacts of such a feedback. We find that an abrupt “tipping point” can occur under global warming, with an associated hysteresis window bounded by saddle-node bifurcations. We show that the presence and magnitude of the hysteresis are sensitive to the choice of model parameters, and the hysteresis occurs for only a limited range of parameters. During the critical transition at the bifurcation point, we find that only a small percentage of the heat stored in the deep layer is released, although this is still enough to lead to substantial sea ice melt. Furthermore, no clear relationship is apparent between this change in heat storage and the level of hysteresis when the parameters are varied.
The Arctic climate is changing rapidly, with dramatic sea ice declines and increasing upper‐ocean heat content. While oceanic heat has historically been isolated from the sea ice by weak vertical mixing, it has been hypothesized that a reduced ice pack will increase energy transfer from the wind into the internal wave (IW) field, enhancing mixing and accelerating ice melt. We evaluate this positive ice/internal‐wave feedback using a finescale parameterization to estimate dissipation, a proxy for the energy available for IW‐driven mixing, from pan‐Arctic hydrographic profiles over 18 years. We find that dissipation has nearly doubled in summer in some regions. Associated heat fluxes have risen by an order of magnitude, underpinned by increases in the strength and prevalence of IW‐driven mixing. While the impact of the ice/internal‐wave feedback will likely remain negligible in the western Arctic, sea‐ice melt in the eastern Arctic appears vulnerable to the feedback strengthening.
more » « less- Award ID(s):
- 1950077
- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10372809
- Publisher / Repository:
- DOI PREFIX: 10.1029
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Geophysical Research Letters
- Volume:
- 48
- Issue:
- 8
- ISSN:
- 0094-8276
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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