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Abstract Several methods have been developed to quantify the oceanic accumulation of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) in response to rising atmospheric CO2. Yet, we still lack a corresponding estimate of the changes in the total oceanic dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC). In addition to the increase in anthropogenic CO2, changes in DIC also include alterations of natural CO2. Once integrated globally, changes in DIC reflect the net oceanic sink for atmospheric CO2, complementary to estimates of the air‐sea CO2exchange based on surface measurements. Here, we extend the MOBO‐DIC machine learning approach by Keppler et al. (2020a,https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/metadata/landing-page/bin/iso?id=gov.noaa.nodc%3A0221526) to estimate global monthly fields of DIC at 1° resolution over the top 1,500 m from 2004 through 2019. We find that over these 16 years and extrapolated to cover the whole global ocean down to 4,000 m, the oceanic DIC pool increased close to linearly at an average rate of 3.2 ± 0.7 Pg C yr−1. This trend is statistically indistinguishable from current estimates of the oceanic uptake of anthropogenic CO2over the same period. Thus, our study implies no detectable net loss or gain of natural CO2by the ocean, albeit the large uncertainties could be masking it. Our reconstructions suggest substantial internal redistributions of natural oceanic CO2, with a shift from the midlatitudes to the tropics and from the surface to below ∼200 m. Such redistributions correspond with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. The interannual variability of DIC is strongest in the tropical Western Pacific, consistent with the El Nio Southern Oscillation.
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Source‐Labeled Anthropogenic Carbon Reveals a Large Shift of Preindustrial Carbon From the Ocean to the Atmosphere
Abstract Two centuries of anthropogenic CO2emissions have increased the CO2concentration of the atmosphere and the dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) concentration of the ocean compared to preindustrial times. These anthropogenic carbon perturbations are often equated to the amount of anthropogenically emitted carbon in the atmosphere or ocean, which ignores the possibility of a shift of natural carbon between the oceanic and atmospheric carbon reservoirs. Here we use a data‐assimilated ocean circulation model and numerical tracers akin to ideal isotopes to label carbon when it is emitted by anthropogenic sources. We find that emitted carbon accounts for only about 45% of the atmospheric CO2increase since preindustrial times, the remaining 55% being natural CO2that outgassed from the ocean in response to anthropogenically emitted carbon invading the ocean. This outgassing is driven by the order‐10 seawater carbonate buffer factor which causes increased leakage of natural CO2as DIC concentrations increase. By 2020, the ocean had outgassed ∼159 Pg of natural carbon, which is counteracted by the ocean absorbing ∼347 Pg of emitted carbon, about 1.8 times more than the net increase in oceanic carbon storage of ∼188 PgC. These results do not challenge existing estimates of anthropogenically driven changes in atmospheric or oceanic carbon inventories, but they shed new light on the composition of these changes and the fate of anthropogenically emitted carbon in the Earth system.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1948955
- PAR ID:
- 10373010
- Publisher / Repository:
- DOI PREFIX: 10.1029
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Global Biogeochemical Cycles
- Volume:
- 36
- Issue:
- 10
- ISSN:
- 0886-6236
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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