Search for: All records

Abstract Marine carbon dioxide removal (mCDR) is gaining interest as a tool to meet global climate goals. Because the response of the ocean–atmosphere system to mCDR takes years to centuries, modeling is required to assess the impact of mCDR on atmospheric CO₂reduction. Here, we use a coupled ocean–atmosphere model to quantify the atmospheric CO₂reduction in response to a CDR perturbation. We define two metrics to characterize the atmospheric CO₂response to both instantaneous ocean alkalinity enhancement (OAE) and direct air capture (DAC): the cumulative additionality (α) measures the reduction in atmospheric CO₂relative to the magnitude of the CDR perturbation, while the relative efficiency (ϵ) quantifies the cumulative additionality of mCDR relative to that of DAC. For DAC,αis 100% immediately following CDR deployment, but declines to roughly 50% by 100 years post-deployment as the ocean degasses CO₂in response to the removal of carbon from the atmosphere. For instantaneous OAE,αis zero initially and reaches a maximum of 40%–90% several years to decades later, depending on regional CO₂equilibration rates and ocean circulation processes. The global meanϵapproaches 100% after 40 years, showing that instantaneous OAE is nearly as effective as DAC after several decades. However, there are significant geographic variations, withϵapproaching 100% most rapidly in the low latitudes whileϵstays well under 100% for decades to centuries near deep and intermediate water formation sites. These metrics provide a quantitative framework for evaluating sequestration timescales and carbon market valuation that can be applied to any mCDR strategy. 

Abstract The ocean's organic carbon export is a key control on atmospheric pCO₂and stimulating this export could potentially mitigate climate change. We use a data‐constrained model to calculate the sensitivity of atmospheric pCO₂to local changes in export using an adjoint approach. A perpetual enhancement of the biological pump's export by 0.1 PgC/yr could achieve a roughly 1% reduction in pCO₂at average sensitivity. The sensitivity varies roughly 5‐fold across different ocean regions and is proportional to the difference between the mean sequestration timeτ_seqof regenerated carbon and the response timeτ_preof performed carbon, which is the reduction in the preformed carbon inventory per unit increase in local export production. Air‐sea CO₂disequilibrium modulates the geographic pattern ofτ_pre, causing particularly high sensitivities (2–3 times the global mean) in the Antarctic Divergence region of the Southern Ocean. 

Abstract This study characterized ocean biological carbon pump metrics in the second iteration of the REgional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes (RECCAP2) project. The analysis here focused on comparisons of global and biome‐scale regional patterns in particulate organic carbon (POC) production and sinking flux from the RECCAP2 ocean biogeochemical model ensemble against observational products derived from satellite remote sensing, sediment traps, and geochemical methods. There was generally good model‐data agreement in mean large‐scale spatial patterns, but with substantial spread across the model ensemble and observational products. The global‐integrated, model ensemble‐mean export production, taken as the sinking POC flux at 100 m (6.08 ± 1.17 Pg C yr⁻¹), and export ratio defined as sinking flux divided by net primary production (0.154 ± 0.026) both fell at the lower end of observational estimates. Comparison with observational constraints also suggested that the model ensemble may have underestimated regional biological CO₂drawdown and air‐sea CO₂flux in high productivity regions. Reasonable model‐data agreement was found for global‐integrated, ensemble‐mean sinking POC flux into the deep ocean at 1,000 m (0.65 ± 0.24 Pg C yr⁻¹) and the transfer efficiency defined as flux at 1,000 m divided by flux at 100 m (0.122 ± 0.041), with both variables exhibiting considerable regional variability. The RECCAP2 analysis presents standard ocean biological carbon pump metrics for assessing biogeochemical model skill, metrics that are crucial for further modeling efforts to resolve remaining uncertainties involving system‐level interactions between ocean physics and biogeochemistry. 

Abstract The ocean is a major carbon sink and takes up 25%–30% of the anthropogenically emitted CO₂. A state‐of‐the‐art method to quantify this sink are global ocean biogeochemistry models (GOBMs), but their simulated CO₂uptake differs between models and is systematically lower than estimates based on statistical methods using surface oceanpCO₂and interior ocean measurements. Here, we provide an in‐depth evaluation of ocean carbon sink estimates from 1980 to 2018 from a GOBM ensemble. As sources of inter‐model differences and ensemble‐mean biases our study identifies (a) the model setup, such as the length of the spin‐up, the starting date of the simulation, and carbon fluxes from rivers and into sediments, (b) the simulated ocean circulation, such as Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and Southern Ocean mode and intermediate water formation, and (c) the simulated oceanic buffer capacity. Our analysis suggests that a late starting date and biases in the ocean circulation cause a too low anthropogenic CO₂uptake across the GOBM ensemble. Surface ocean biogeochemistry biases might also cause simulated anthropogenic fluxes to be too low, but the current setup prevents a robust assessment. For simulations of the ocean carbon sink, we recommend in the short‐term to (a) start simulations at a common date before the industrialization and the associated atmospheric CO₂increase, (b) conduct a sufficiently long spin‐up such that the GOBMs reach steady‐state, and (c) provide key metrics for circulation, biogeochemistry, and the land‐ocean interface. In the long‐term, we recommend improving the representation of these metrics in the GOBMs. 

Abstract Two centuries of anthropogenic CO₂emissions have increased the CO₂concentration of the atmosphere and the dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) concentration of the ocean compared to preindustrial times. These anthropogenic carbon perturbations are often equated to the amount of anthropogenically emitted carbon in the atmosphere or ocean, which ignores the possibility of a shift of natural carbon between the oceanic and atmospheric carbon reservoirs. Here we use a data‐assimilated ocean circulation model and numerical tracers akin to ideal isotopes to label carbon when it is emitted by anthropogenic sources. We find that emitted carbon accounts for only about 45% of the atmospheric CO₂increase since preindustrial times, the remaining 55% being natural CO₂that outgassed from the ocean in response to anthropogenically emitted carbon invading the ocean. This outgassing is driven by the order‐10 seawater carbonate buffer factor which causes increased leakage of natural CO₂as DIC concentrations increase. By 2020, the ocean had outgassed ∼159 Pg of natural carbon, which is counteracted by the ocean absorbing ∼347 Pg of emitted carbon, about 1.8 times more than the net increase in oceanic carbon storage of ∼188 PgC. These results do not challenge existing estimates of anthropogenically driven changes in atmospheric or oceanic carbon inventories, but they shed new light on the composition of these changes and the fate of anthropogenically emitted carbon in the Earth system. 

Abstract The ocean is one of the most important sinks for anthropogenic CO₂emissions. Here, I use an ocean circulation inverse model (OCIM), ocean biogeochemical models, and pCO₂interpolation products to examine trends and variability in the oceanic CO₂sink. The OCIM quantifies the impacts of rising atmospheric CO₂, changing sea surface temperatures, and gas transfer velocities on the oceanic CO₂sink. Together, these effects account for an oceanic CO₂uptake of 2.2 ± 0.1 PgC yr⁻¹from 1994 to 2007, and a net increase in the oceanic carbon inventory of 185 PgC from 1780 to 2020. However, these effects cannot account for the majority of the decadal variability shown in data‐based reconstructions of the ocean CO₂sink over the past 30 years. This implies that decadal variability of the ocean CO₂sink is predominantly driven by changes in ocean circulation or biology that act to redistribute both natural and anthropogenic carbon in the ocean. 

Abstract This contribution to the RECCAP2 (REgional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes) assessment analyzes the processes that determine the global ocean carbon sink, and its trends and variability over the period 1985–2018, using a combination of models and observation‐based products. The mean sea‐air CO₂flux from 1985 to 2018 is −1.6 ± 0.2 PgC yr⁻¹based on an ensemble of reconstructions of the history of sea surface pCO₂(pCO₂products). Models indicate that the dominant component of this flux is the net oceanic uptake of anthropogenic CO₂, which is estimated at −2.1 ± 0.3 PgC yr⁻¹by an ensemble of ocean biogeochemical models, and −2.4 ± 0.1 PgC yr⁻¹by two ocean circulation inverse models. The ocean also degasses about 0.65 ± 0.3 PgC yr⁻¹of terrestrially derived CO₂, but this process is not fully resolved by any of the models used here. From 2001 to 2018, the pCO₂products reconstruct a trend in the ocean carbon sink of −0.61 ± 0.12 PgC yr⁻¹ decade⁻¹, while biogeochemical models and inverse models diagnose an anthropogenic CO₂‐driven trend of −0.34 ± 0.06 and −0.41 ± 0.03 PgC yr⁻¹ decade⁻¹, respectively. This implies a climate‐forced acceleration of the ocean carbon sink in recent decades, but there are still large uncertainties on the magnitude and cause of this trend. The interannual to decadal variability of the global carbon sink is mainly driven by climate variability, with the climate‐driven variability exceeding the CO₂‐forced variability by 2–3 times. These results suggest that anthropogenic CO₂dominates the ocean CO₂sink, while climate‐driven variability is potentially large but highly uncertain and not consistently captured across different methods. 

Trawling the seafloor can disturb carbon that took millennia to accumulate, but the fate of that carbon and its impact on climate and ecosystems remains unknown. Using satellite-inferred fishing events and carbon cycle models, we find that 55-60% of trawling-induced aqueous CO₂is released to the atmosphere over 7-9 years. Using recent estimates of bottom trawling’s impact on sedimentary carbon, we found that between 1996-2020 trawling could have released, at the global scale, up to 0.34-0.37 Pg CO₂yr^-1to the atmosphere, and locally altered water pH in some semi-enclosed and heavy trawled seas. Our results suggest that the management of bottom-trawling efforts could be an important climate solution. 

The ocean holds vast quantities of carbon that it continually exchanges with the atmosphere through the air-sea interface. Because of its enormous size and relatively rapid exchange of carbon with the atmosphere, the ocean controls atmospheric CO 2 concentration and thereby Earth's climate on timescales of tens to thousands of years. This review examines the basic functions of the ocean's carbon cycle, demonstrating that the ocean carbon inventory is determined primarily by the mass of the ocean, by the chemical speciation of CO 2 in seawater, and by the action of the solubility and biological pumps that draw carbon into the ocean's deeper layers, where it can be sequestered for decades to millennia. The ocean also plays a critical role in moderating the impacts of climate change by absorbing an amount of carbon equivalent to about 25% of anthropogenic CO 2 emissions over the past several decades. However, this also leads to ocean acidification and reduces the chemical buffering capacity of the ocean and its future ability to take up CO 2 . This review closes with a look at the uncertain future of the ocean carbon cycle and the scientific challenges that this uncertainty brings.