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Abstract The timing and intensity of precipitation varies from year‐to‐year and is expected to change in the future. Assessing the impacts of this moisture delivery variability on tree growth is important both for future forest health and for our interpretation of pre‐instrumental tree‐ring records. Here, we used the Vaganov‐Shashkin model to investigate how changes in precipitation delivery impact tree growth at five sites representing four species in two North American river basins with high precipitation variability but different seasonal cycles. Evenly distributed precipitation increased tree growth in the Lower Sacramento watershed, while the water‐limited South Platte benefited from concentrated precipitation early in the growing season. Although most experimental simulations retained the pattern of high‐ and low‐growth years, tree growth was reduced with fewer, more intense precipitation events, which could affect interpretation of past climate extremes. Under the RCP4.5 scenario, projected warming offset the potential benefits of increased precipitation on tree growth.
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Sub‐Seasonal Tree‐Ring Reconstructions for More Comprehensive Climate Records in U.S. West Coast Watersheds
Abstract Tree‐ring records of preinstrumental hydroclimate, which contribute needed context for understanding recent drought and flood events, typically provide one value per year that represents the entire year or one particular season. This may introduce a seasonal bias to the records or omit seasonally variable moisture. Here, I use tree‐ring records to reconstruct precipitation and runoff in 28 U.S. West Coast watersheds for running 1, 3, 6, and 12‐month intervals. When compared on a yearly basis, the Monthly and Four‐Season models have higher overall skill and better extreme capture in most basins than the Cool‐Warm and Annual models. The Monthly and Four‐Season versions also decrease model error in years with more intense precipitation and retain more variability in the preinstrumental period. Improved capture of year‐round moisture can provide a more complete representation of the preinstrumental past and strengthen capacity to study shorter‐duration and season‐specific events like atmospheric rivers.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1802024
- PAR ID:
- 10373026
- Publisher / Repository:
- DOI PREFIX: 10.1029
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Geophysical Research Letters
- Volume:
- 48
- Issue:
- 2
- ISSN:
- 0094-8276
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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