The South Atlantic Ocean is an important region for anthropogenic CO2(Canth) uptake and storage in the world ocean, yet is less studied. Here, after an extensive sensitivity test and method comparison, we applied an extended multiple linear regression method with six characteristic water masses to estimate Canthchange or increase (ΔCanth) between 1980s and 2010s in the South Atlantic Ocean using two meridional transects (A16S and A13.5) and one zonal transect (A10). Over a period of about 25 years, the basin‐wide ΔCanthwas 3.86 ± 0.14 Pg C decade−1. The two basins flanking the Mid‐Atlantic Ridge had different meridional patterns of ΔCanth, yielding an average depth‐integrated ΔCanthin the top 2000 m of 0.91 ± 0.25 mol m−2 yr−1along A16S on the west and 0.57 ± 0.22 mol m−2 yr−1along A13.5 on the east. The west‐east basin ΔCanthcontrasts were most prominent in the tropical region (0–20°S) in the Surface Water (SW), approximately from equator to 35°S in the Subantarctic Mode Water (Subantarctic Mode Water (SAMW)), and all latitudes in the Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW). Less ΔCanthin the eastern basin than the western basin was caused by weaker ventilation driven by SAMW and AAIW formation and subduction and stronger Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) formation in the former than the latter. In addition to the spatial heterogeneity, Canthincrease rates accelerated from the 1990s to the 2000s, consistent with the overall increase in air‐sea CO2exchange in the South Atlantic Ocean.
Subduction in the Antarctic circumpolar region of the Southern Ocean (SO) results in the formation of Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW) and Subantarctic Mode Water (SAMW). Theoretical understanding predicts that subduction rates of these waters masses is driven by wind stress curl and buoyancy fluxes. The objective of this work is to evaluate the extent to which AAIW and SAMW variability are correlated to SO air‐sea fluxes and how potential changes to those forcings would impact the future water mass export rates. We correlate the water mass volume transport at 30°S with Ekman pumping, freshwater and heat fluxes in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. The export of these water masses varies across models, with most overestimating the total transport. Correlation coefficients between the air‐sea fluxes and exports are consistent with theoretical expectations. In the picontrol/historical scenarios, the highest correlations with AAIW export variability are heat flux, while Ekman pumping best explains SAMW. However, multivariate regressions show that both AAIW and SAMW export variability are better explained using the combination of all three fluxes. In future scenario simulations air‐sea fluxes trend significantly in the catastrophic scenario (RCP8.5 and SSP8.5). Both AAIW and SAMW are still highly correlated to the fluxes, but with different correlation coefficients. The dominant forcing components even change from the present simulations to the future scenario runs. Thus, correlations between AAIW and SAMW transports and air‐sea fluxes are not stationary in time, limiting the predictive skill of statistical models and highlighting the importance of using complex climate models.
more » « less- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10374708
- Publisher / Repository:
- DOI PREFIX: 10.1029
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans
- Volume:
- 126
- Issue:
- 6
- ISSN:
- 2169-9275
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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Abstract -
The South Atlantic Ocean is an important region for anthropogenic CO2 (Canth) uptake and storage in the world ocean, yet is less studied. Here, after an extensive sensitivity test and method comparison, we applied an extended multiple linear regression (eMLR) method with six characteristic water masses to estimate Canth change or increase (ΔCanth) between 1980s and 2010s in the South Atlantic Ocean using two meridional transects (A16S and A13.5) and one zonal transect (A10). Over a period of about 25 years, the basin-wide ΔCanth was 3.86±0.14 Pg C decade-1. The two basins flanking the Mid-Atlantic Ridge had different meridional patterns of ΔCanth, yielding an average depth‐integrated ΔCanth in the top 2000 m of 0.91±0.25 mol m-2 yr-1 along A16S on the west and 0.57±0.22 mol m-2 yr-1 along A13.5 on the east. The west-east basin ΔCanth contrasts were most prominent in the tropical region (0-20°S) in the Surface Water (SW), approximately from equator to 35°S in the Subantarctic Mode Water (SAMW), and all latitudes in the Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW). Less Canth in the eastern basin than the western basin was caused by weaker ventilation driven by SAMW and AAIW formation and subduction and stronger Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) formation in the former than the latter. In addition to the spatial heterogeneity, Canth increase rates accelerated from the 1990s to the 2000s, consistent with the overall increase in air-sea CO2 exchange in the South Atlantic Ocean.more » « less
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Significance Statement The purpose of this study is to provide a basic understanding of what controls the flux of sea ice and low-salinity water from the East Greenland shelf into the interior of the Greenland and Iceland Seas. This is a potentially important process since it has been shown that sufficient freshening of the surface waters in the interior of the Nordic seas can inhibit deep convection and the associated air–sea heat flux and water mass transformation. A combination of idealized computer models and basic theory indicates that the fluxes of liquid and solid freshwater are controlled by different mechanisms and occur at different times of the year. Accurate representation in climate models will require representation of small-scale processes such as mesoscale eddies and gradients of ice thickness across the shelf.
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