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Many plants are responding to increases in spring temperatures by advancing their leaf‐out and flowering times in temperate regions around the world. The magnitudes of species' sensitivities to temperature vary widely, and patterns within that variation can illuminate underlying phenological drivers related to species' life histories and local‐scale adaptations.The USA National Phenology Network (USA‐NPN) and the National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) are two rapidly growing, taxonomically and geographically extensive phenology data resources in the USA that offer opportunities to explore emergent properties of spring phenology. Using observations of leaf‐out and flowering in temperate deciduous plant species from USA‐NPN (2009–2024) and NEON (2014–2022), we estimated species‐level flowering (n = 164) and leaf‐out (n = 136) sensitivities to temperatures of the preceding months, obtained through PRISM. We used the results to assess differences in sensitivities between the two datasets and among life history traits (e.g. introduced or native status, seasonal timing and growth habit) and to explore latitudinal patterns in sensitivity among and within species. We found significant relationships between temperature and leaf‐out phenology (2009–2024 for 109 (80%) species, ranging from −7.4 to −1.3 days/°C, and between temperature and flowering phenology for 140 (85%) species, ranging from −8.0 to −1.1 days/°C. Plant sensitivities were highly consistent among the USA‐NPN and NEON datasets, suggesting these datasets can be reasonably combined to expand the coverage of publicly available phenological data across the USA. Introduced species showed stronger sensitivity to temperature than native species for both leaf‐out (−0.8 days/°C difference) and flowering (−0.7 days/°C difference). The strongest (i.e. most negative) leaf‐out sensitivities to temperature were associated with earlier leaf‐out dates and strong flowering sensitivities. Latitudinal analyses within and across species indicate that flowering and leaf‐out sensitivities are both stronger at lower latitudes. Synthesis. Phenological ‘big data’ encompassing over 100 species across the eastern USA shows that leaf‐out and flowering occur earlier with warmer temperatures and that native species and individuals at high latitudes tend to have weaker temperature sensitivities than introduced species and more southern plants; these findings suggest adaptations within and across species to avoid leafing out and flowering under harsh environmental conditions.
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Photoperiod decelerates the advance of spring phenology of six deciduous tree species under climate warming
Abstract Vegetation phenology in spring has substantially advanced under climate warming, consequently shifting the seasonality of ecosystem process and altering biosphere–atmosphere feedbacks. However, whether and to what extent photoperiod (i.e., daylength) affects the phenological advancement is unclear, leading to large uncertainties in projecting future phenological changes. Here we examined the photoperiod effect on spring phenology at a regional scale using in situ observation of six deciduous tree species from the Pan European Phenological Network during 1980–2016. We disentangled the photoperiod effect from the temperature effect (i.e., forcing and chilling) by utilizing the unique topography of the northern Alps of Europe (i.e., varying daylength but uniform temperature distribution across latitudes) and examining phenological changes across latitudes. We found prominent photoperiod‐induced shifts in spring leaf‐out across latitudes (up to 1.7 days per latitudinal degree). Photoperiod regulates spring phenology by delaying early leaf‐out and advancing late leaf‐out caused by temperature variations. Based on these findings, we proposed two phenological models that consider the photoperiod effect through different mechanisms and compared them with a chilling model. We found that photoperiod regulation would slow down the advance in spring leaf‐out under projected climate warming and thus mitigate the increasing frost risk in spring that deciduous forests will face in the future. Our findings identify photoperiod as a critical but understudied factor influencing spring phenology, suggesting that the responses of terrestrial ecosystem processes to climate warming are likely to be overestimated without adequately considering the photoperiod effect.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1702697
- PAR ID:
- 10375046
- Publisher / Repository:
- Wiley-Blackwell
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Global Change Biology
- Volume:
- 27
- Issue:
- 12
- ISSN:
- 1354-1013
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- p. 2914-2927
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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