Surface deformation and seismicity provide critical information to understand the dynamics of volcanic unrest. During 2006–2007, >80 mm/yr uplift was observed by interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) at the central Atka volcanic center, Alaska, coinciding with an increasing seismicity rate. On November 25, 2006, a phreatic eruption occurred at the Korovin volcanic vent, 5‐km north of the central Atka, following the drainage of its crater lake a month prior to the eruption. The InSAR data are assimilated into three‐dimensional finite element models using the Ensemble Kalman Filter to investigate: (1) the pressure source creating the surface deformation; (2) the triggering of the volcano‐tectonic (VT) earthquakes in the Atka volcanic center; and (3) the triggering of the phreatic eruption at Korovin. The models show that the pressure source required to create the surface deformation is a NE‐tilted, oblate ellipsoid, which rotated from steep to gentle dipping from June to November 2006 before the eruption. The modeled dilatancy in a pre‐existing weak zone, coinciding with the Amlia‐Amukta fault, driven by the pressure source has a spatial and temporal correlation with the evolution of the VT earthquakes during the unrest. The fault dilatancy may have increased the connected porosity and permeability of the fault zone allowing fluid injection which triggered the observed seismicity. In addition, the dilatated fault may have increased the fluid capacity of the fault zone by ∼105 m3, causing the discharge of the crater lake at Korovin. Consequently, the phreatic eruption of the Korovin volcano may have been triggered.
Although episodes of surface uplift and elevated seismicity precede many volcanic eruptions, their temporal evolution is often complex, and apparently in contradiction to simple trends predicted by mechanical deformation models. Here, we use continuous global positioning system and seismic data recorded at Sierra Negra volcano, Galápagos Islands, to show how the edifice responded to stress changes driven by magma accumulation in a shallow sill. The rate of uplift varied during the 13 years and 6.5 m of inflation before the 2018 eruption. The number of earthquakes per unit of uplift increased exponentially with total uplift as the differential stress increased. Accordingly, the temporal seismicity rate varied in time as a function of both the total uplift and the uplift rate. The Gutenberg‐Richter
- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10375569
- Publisher / Repository:
- DOI PREFIX: 10.1029
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth
- Volume:
- 126
- Issue:
- 7
- ISSN:
- 2169-9313
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
More Like this
-
more » « less
Abstract -
more » « less
Abstract Axial Seamount is a basaltic hot spot volcano with a summit caldera at a depth of ∼1,500 m below sea level, superimposed on the Juan de Fuca spreading ridge, giving it a robust and continuous magma supply. Axial erupted in 1998, 2011, and 2015, and is monitored by a cabled network of instruments including bottom pressure recorders and seismometers. Since its last eruption, Axial has re‐inflated to 85%–90% of its pre‐eruption level. During that time, we have identified eight discrete, short‐term deflation events of 1–4 cm over 1–3 weeks that occurred quasi‐periodically, about every 4–6 months between August 2016 and May 2019. During each short‐term deflation event, the rate of earthquakes dropped abruptly to low levels, and then did not return to higher levels until reinflation had resumed and returned near its previous high. The long‐term geodetic monitoring record suggests that the rate of magma supply has varied by an order of magnitude over decadal time scales. There was a surge in magma supply between 2011 and 2015, causing those two eruptions to be closely spaced in time and the supply rate has been waning since then. This waning supply has implications for eruption forecasting and the next eruption at Axial still appears to be 4–9 years away. We also show that the number of earthquakes per unit of uplift has increased exponentially with total uplift since the 2015 eruption, a pattern consistent with a mechanical model of cumulative rock damage leading to bulk failure during magma accumulation between eruptions.
-
more » « less
Abstract Seismicity during explosive volcanic eruptions remains challenging to observe through the eruptive noise, leaving first‐order questions unanswered. How do earthquake rates change as eruptions progress, and what is their relationship to the opening and closing of the eruptive vent? To address these questions for the Okmok Volcano 2008 explosive eruption, Volcano Explosivity Index 4, we utilized modern detection methods to enhance the existing earthquake catalog. Our enhanced catalog detected significantly more earthquakes than traditional methods. We located, relocated, determined magnitudes and classified all events within this catalog. Our analysis reveals distinct behaviors for long‐period (LP) and volcano‐tectonic (VT) earthquakes, providing insights into the opening and closing cycle. LP earthquakes occur as bursts beneath the eruptive vent and do not coincide in time with the plumes, indicating their relationship to an eruptive process that occurs at a high pressurization state, that is, partially closed conduit. In contrast, VT earthquakes maintain a steadier rate over a broader region, do not track the caldera deflation and have a larger
b ‐value during the eruption than before or after. The closing sequence is marked by a burst of LPs followed by small VTs south of the volcano. The opening sequence differs as only VTs extend to depth and migrate within minutes of the eruption onset. Our high‐resolution catalog offers valuable insights, demonstrating that volcanic conduits can transition between partially closed (clogged) and open (cracked) states during an eruption. Utilizing modern earthquake processing techniques enables clearer understanding of eruptions and holds promise for studying other volcanic events. -
more » « less
Abstract Forecasting the onset of a volcanic eruption from a closed system requires understanding its stress state and failure potential, which can be investigated through numerical modeling. However, the lack of constraints on model parameters, especially rheology, may substantially impair the accuracy of failure forecasts. Therefore, it is essential to know whether large variations and uncertainties in rock properties will preclude the ability of models to predict reservoir failure. A series of two‐dimensional, axisymmetric models are used to investigate sensitivities of brittle failure initiation to assumed rock properties. The numerical experiments indicate that the deformation and overpressure at failure onset simulated by elastic models will be much lower than the viscoelastic models, when the timescale of pressurization exceeds the viscoelastic relaxation time of the host rock. Poisson's ratio and internal friction angle have much less effect on failure forecasts than Young's modulus. Variations in Young's modulus significantly affect the prediction of surface deformation before failure onset when Young's modulus is < 40 GPa. Longer precursory volcano‐tectonic events may occur in weak host rock (
E < 40 GPa) due to well‐developed Coulomb failure prior to dike propagation. Thus, combining surface deformation with seismicity may enhance the accuracy of eruption forecast in these situations. Compared to large and oblate magma systems, small and prolate systems create far less surface uplift prior to failure initiation, suggesting that more frequent measurements are necessary. -
more » « less
Abstract Improvement of our understanding of the role of ground deformation due to viscoelastic relaxation following eruptions is important, as the generated signals can resemble renewed magma inflow. We study post‐eruptive unrest at the subglacial Bárðarbunga volcano, Iceland, after a caldera collapse and major magma drainage in 2014–2015. Elevated seismicity began about 6 months after the eruption ended, including nine M
lw > 4.5 earthquakes. Global Navigation Satellite System and Sentinel‐1 Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar geodesy are applied to evaluate post‐eruptive ground deformation from 2015 to 2018. Horizontal velocities locally exceed 10 cm/year and rapidly decay with distance away from the caldera. We explore two end‐member models and their combination to explain the post‐eruptive deformation field: 1) viscoelastic relaxation caused by the co‐eruptive caldera collapse and magma withdrawal, and 2) renewed magma inflow. We find parameter combinations for each model that explain the observed ground deformation. The purely viscoelastic relaxation model, consisting of a half‐space composed of a 7‐km thick elastic layer on top of a viscoelastic layer with a viscosity of 3.0 × 1018 Pa s reproduces broadly the observations. A simple magma inflow model consisting of a single point source with an inflow rate of 1 × 107 m3/year at 0.7 km depth broadly fits the observations, but may be unrealistic. A more elaborate model of magma inflow into a 10‐km deep sill combined with slip on the caldera ring fault explains the observations well. Our results suggest that the co‐eruptive deformation field is likely influenced by viscoelastic relaxation, renewed magma inflow, or a combination of both processes.
