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Title: Making Sense of Uncertainty in the Science Classroom: A Bayesian Approach
Abstract Uncertainty is ubiquitous in science, but scientific knowledge is often represented to the public and in educational contexts as certain and immutable. This contrast can foster distrust when scientific knowledge develops in a way that people perceive as a reversals, as we have observed during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Drawing on research in statistics, child development, and several studies in science education, we argue that a Bayesian approach can support science learners to make sense of uncertainty. We provide a brief primer on Bayes’ theorem and then describe three ways to make Bayesian reasoning practical in K-12 science education contexts. There are a) using principles informed by Bayes’ theorem that relate to the nature of knowing and knowledge, b) interacting with a web-based application (or widget—Confidence Updater) that makes the calculations needed to apply Bayes’ theorem more practical, and c) adopting strategies for supporting even young learners to engage in Bayesian reasoning. We conclude with directions for future research and sum up how viewing science and scientific knowledge from a Bayesian perspective can build trust in science.  more » « less
Award ID(s):
1937700
PAR ID:
10377491
Author(s) / Creator(s):
; ; ;
Date Published:
Journal Name:
Science & Education
Volume:
31
Issue:
5
ISSN:
0926-7220
Page Range / eLocation ID:
1239 to 1262
Format(s):
Medium: X
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
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