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Title: Double Your Variance, Dirtify Your Bayes, Devour Your Pufferfish, and Draw your Kidstrogram
This article expands upon my presentation to the panel on “The Radical Prescription for Change” at the 2017 ASA (American Statistical Association) symposium on A World Beyond $p<0.05$. It emphasizes that, to greatly enhance the reliability of—and hence public trust in—statistical and data scientific findings, we need to take a holistic approach. We need to lead by example, incentivize study quality, and inoculate future generations with profound appreciations for the world of uncertainty and the uncertainty world. The four “radical” proposals in the title—with all their inherent defects and trade-offs—are designed to provoke reactions and actions. First, research methodologies are trustworthy only if they deliver what they promise, even if this means that they have to be overly protective, a necessary trade-off for practicing quality-guaranteed statistics. This guiding principle may compel us to doubling variance in some situations, a strategy that also coincides with the call to raise the bar from $p<0.05$ to $p<0.005$ [3]. Second, teaching principled practicality or corner-cutting is a promising strategy to enhance the scientific community’s as well as the general public’s ability to spot—and hence to deter—flawed arguments or findings. A remarkable quick-and-dirty Bayes formula for rare events, which simply divides the prevalence by the sum of the prevalence and the false positive rate (or the total error rate), as featured by the popular radio show Car Talk, illustrates the effectiveness of this strategy. Third, it should be a routine mental exercise to put ourselves in the shoes of those who would be affected by our research finding, in order to combat the tendency of rushing to conclusions or overstating confidence in our findings. A pufferfish/selfish test can serve as an effective reminder, and can help to institute the mantra “Thou shalt not sell what thou refuseth to buy” as the most basic professional decency. Considering personal stakes in our statistical endeavors also points to the concept of behavioral statistics, in the spirit of behavioral economics. Fourth, the current mathematical education paradigm that puts “deterministic first, stochastic second” is likely responsible for the general difficulties with reasoning under uncertainty, a situation that can be improved by introducing the concept of histogram, or rather kidstogram, as early as the concept of counting.  more » « less
Award ID(s):
1812063
NSF-PAR ID:
10390258
Author(s) / Creator(s):
Date Published:
Journal Name:
The New England Journal of Statistics in Data Science
ISSN:
2693-7166
Page Range / eLocation ID:
1 to 20
Format(s):
Medium: X
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
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    Is the combined use of fluorescence lifetime imaging microscopy (FLIM)-based metabolic imaging and second harmonic generation (SHG) spindle imaging a feasible and safe approach for noninvasive embryo assessment?

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These videos and posts provided information about their demographics and interviews with their parents or acquaintances, who also provide more details about the participant’s personal life. The evaluation of the videos based on the SPRC safe messaging guidelines showed that 37% of the YouTube videos met fewer than 3 of the 9 safe messaging guidelines. Around 50% of them met only 4 to 6 of the guidelines, while the remaining 13% met 7 or more of the guidelines. Discussion This study is the first to systematically investigate the quality, portrayal, and reach of BWC on social media. Based on our findings from the emerging themes and the evaluation of the SPRC safe messaging guidelines we suggest that these videos could contribute to the spread of these deadly challenges (or suicide in general since the game might be a hoax) instead of raising awareness. Our suggestion is parallel with similar studies conducted on the portrait of suicide in traditional media (Fekete & Macsai, 1990; Fekete & Schmidtke, 1995). Most posts on social media romanticized people who have died by following this challenge, and younger vulnerable teens may see the victims as role models, leading them to end their lives in the same way (Fekete & Schmidtke, 1995). The videos presented statistics about the number of suicides believed to be related to this challenge in a way that made suicide seem common (Cialdini, 2003). In addition, the videos presented extensive personal information about the people who have died by suicide while playing the BWC. These videos also provided detailed descriptions of the final task, including pictures of self-harm, material that may encourage vulnerable teens to consider ending their lives and provide them with methods on how to do so (Fekete & Macsai, 1990). 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